Justify Son of Winter Debuts in Fascinating Curragh Affair

Observations on the European Racing Scene turns the spotlight on the best European races of the day, highlighting well-pedigreed horses early in their careers, horses of note returning to action and young runners that achieved notable results in the sales ring. Saturday's Insights features the third foal of MG1SW Winter, who already claims a TDN Rising Star to her docket as a broodmare.

13.45 The Curragh, Debutantes, €17,000, 2yo, 7fT
LONDON CITY (Justify) is the third foal out of the G1 1000 Guineas, G1 Irish 1000 Guineas, G1 Coronation S. and G1 Nassau S. winner Winter (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), whose 3-year-old daughter Beginnings (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) earned TDN Rising Star status last term. Ryan Moore has opted for the grey colt over Ballydoyle's other runner Chantilly (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), a half-brother to the group 2 winners Royal Dornoch (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) and Hawksmoor (Ire) (Azamour {Ire}), while Juddmonte and Ger Lyons combine with Formal Display (GB) (Too Darn Hot {GB}), a son of Passage Of Time (GB) (Dansili {GB}) and half to Dubawi's Time Test (GB) and Johnny Murtagh unveils The Aga Khan's Shamsuddin (IRE) (Siyouni {Fr}), a half-brother to last year's G2 Railway S. scorer and dual group 1-placed Shartash (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}).

16.05 Newbury, Mdn, £30,000, 2yo, 7fT
FARIZIO (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) is the second foal out of Juddmonte's Listed Height of Fashion S. winner and G2 Ribblesdale S. runner-up Mori (GB) (Frankel {GB}), whose dam Midday (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) was such a font of success for the operation throughout her career as a six-times top-level winner. Ralph Beckett has charge of the February-foaled colt, who meets King Power Racing's homebred Fox Legacy (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), a Sir Michael Stoute-trained half-brother to the G2 Queen Mary S. winner Ceiling Kitty (GB) (Red Clubs {Ire}) from the family of last year's G2 Gimcrack S.-winning TDN Rising Star Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}).

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Classic Clues At Deauville

Against the backdrop of the news that Maisons-Laffitte could be on the way back, it is up to Deauville to continue to stage the two key seven-furlong trials that used to be the preserve of that Parisian venue and help light the way to the upcoming mile Classics on Thursday. In the G3 Prix Djebel, the colts who could be either 2000 Guineas or Poule d'Essai des Poulains-bound include the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere hero Belbek (Fr) (Showcasing {GB}) with Andre Fabre set to weigh up the correct target. Also successful over six furlongs in Chantilly's G3 Prix du Bois in June, Nurlan Bizakov's homebred would be one of the faster types taking part in either Classic but he does have Sangarius (GB) (Kingman {GB}) in his pedigree.

 

Has He Reached His Limit?

Third and beaten two necks in the Lagardere, TDN Rising Star Breizh Sky (Fr) (Pedro The Great) is back for another tilt at Belbek and add to his prior black-type win in the Listed Prix Roland de Chambure over this trip on the round course here in July. Whether he can build on a solid juvenile campaign and progress at three or whether he has already hit his ceiling is the question and both he and White Birch Farm's G3 Prix des Chenes-winning homebred Kubrick (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) have to put unplaced efforts behind them in Saint-Cloud's G1 Criterium International.

 

An Imprudence To Savour…

Seventy minutes after the Djebel, the likely 1000 Guineas and Poule d'Essai des Pouliches protagonists get their opportunity to shine in a numerically stronger prep which is probably also deeper in terms of competition and quality. Despite there being a total of seven listed or group winners in the line-up headed by Mohamed Saeed Al Shahi's Wed (Fr) (Profitable {Ire}), who captured the G2 Prix du Calvados over this course and distance in August, the presence of Ballydoyle's TDN Rising Star Beginnings (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) and Godolphin's Polytrack course winner Quickstep (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) make it a fascinating affair. Also in the mix is Jean-Pierre-Joseph Dubois's impressive Chantilly conditions scorer Sauterne (Fr) (Kingman {GB}), whose dam is a half to Stacelita (Fr) (Monsun {Ger})

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TDN Rising Stars: Notes on the Noteworthy

By what standard is the success of this publication's signature TDN Rising Stars measured; is there an answer? Achieving black-type, at the very least, is a given in any consideration, but tweaks are necessary, as our recent “The Ones That Got Away” article demonstrates. As it happens, last season's vintage managed a sizeable haul of elite-level contests to make 2022 a relative success. Four European Classic triumphs–courtesy of Cachet (Ire) (Aclaim {Ire}), Desert Crown (GB) (Nathaniel {Ire}), Nashwa (GB) (Frankel {GB}) and Eldar Eldarov (GB) (Dubawi {Ire})–were the obvious highlights.

There were others to strike in Group 1 company too, including Classic contenders Little Big Bear (Ire) (No Nay Never), Tahiyra (Ire) (Siyouni {Fr}) and Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}). Bolstered by G2 Mill Reef S. scorer Sakheer (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) and G2 Gimcrack S. victor Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}), last term's juvenile band is one of some strength. Depth is provided by G1 Futurity Trophy runner-up Epictetus (Ire) (Kingman {GB}), G3 Zukunfts-Rennen victrix Habana (Ger) (Kingman {GB}) and G3 Somerville Tattersall S. victor and G1 Dewhurst S. third Nostrum (GB) (Kingman {GB}).

Statistically, 59 individuals were elevated to 'Rising Star' status in Europe last year, kicking off with subsequent black-type winner and G2 Prix Niel runner-up Lassaut (Fr) (Almanzor {Fr}) at Chantilly in March. It'll come as no shock to learn that Kingman (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) was numerically dominant, notching eight 'Rising Stars' during the course of the season. He was comfortably clear of Dubawi (Ire) (Dubai Millennium {GB}), Frankel {GB}) (Galileo {Ire}) and No Nay Never (Scat Daddy), who all registered four. Galileo (Ire) (Sadler's Wells), Sea The Stars (Ire) (Cape Cross {Ire}) and Siyouni (Fr) (Pivotal {GB}) were next in line on three.

Tasked with formulating a Top 10 to look forward to in 2023, plumping for those already on the black-type register would be an exercise in stating the obvious, so the net has been cast further in attempt to identify untapped potential of those yet to make their mark at a higher level. Listed in alphabetical order below, five are by sires who became 'Rising Stars' in their own right on the racecourse and the nominations, by sire, are headed by Dubawi and Siyouni with two each. It's an almost even split by jurisdiction, with France and Ireland home to three apiece. Britain and Germany are tied at two while the gender bias is six to four in favour of the colts. Aidan O'Brien accounts for Ireland's tranche and is numerically the strongest trainer. Markus Klug and Jean-Claude Rouget also make the countdown more than once.

ALEXANDROUPOLIS (IRE) (c, 3, Camelot {GB}–Jazz Cat {Ire}, by Tamayuz {GB})

Multiple Group 1 entrant Alexandroupolis, a 240,000gns Tattersalls October Book 2 graduate, encountered soft ground when introduced at Galway in early September and displayed a rare turn of foot in the latter stages of the extended one-mile maiden to subdue his rivals, defeating G1 Criterium International runner-up and fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Espionage (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). Aidan O'Brien stablemate Kyprios (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) won this race in 2020. He is from the family of G1 Grand Prix de Paris and G1 St Leger hero Kew Gardens (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and G1 Grand Prix de Paris and G1 Irish Derby placegetter Wordsworth (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and a distance of ground awaits.

ALIA'S ROSE (FR) (f, 3, Lope De Vega {Ire}–Quanzhou {Fr}, by Dubawi {Ire})

Jaber Abdullah's Alia's Rose had a trio of black-type performers nine lengths and more in arrears when powering to a breathtaking six-length rout over seven furlongs at Chantilly in July. The Andreas Schutz trainee's victims included Tigrais (Fr) (Outstrip {GB}), who subsequently defeated G1 Prix Jean Luc-Lagardere third Breizh Sky (Fr) (Pedro The Great) in September's G3 Prix La Rochette. The January-foaled bay is out of a stakes-winning half-sister to G1 Prix du Cadran hero Mille Et Mille (GB) (Muhtathir {GB}), but has not been seen since her stunning debut.

ASPIRANT (GER) (c, 3, Protectionist {Ger}–Aussicht {Ger}, by Haafhd {GB})

Prior to 2022, just one horse since 2014 G1 Deutsches Derby-winning sire Sea The Moon (Ger) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) had been elevated to the 'TDN Rising Star' ranks in Germany, but last year was a departure from normality and witnessed a first ever hat-trick of rosettes for the country. Gestut Fahrhof's G3 Zukunfts-Rennen victrix Habana (Ger) (Kingman {GB}) set the ball rolling, plugging a 5-year gap opened by subsequent stakes winner Diaphora (Ger) (Pivotal {GB}) in April 2017, and Aspirant joined her when slamming runaway G3 Herzog von Ratibor-Rennen winner Alpenjager (Ger) (Nutan {Ire}) by 3 1/2 lengths over one mile at Dusseldorf in September. Gestut Rottgen's bay finished just under 17 lengths adrift of that rival in Krefeld's November rematch, having become upset in the stalls during an elongated loading process and posting a sub-par fifth. A half-brother to G2 Diana-Trial victrix Akribie (Ger) (Reliable Man {GB}) and G3 Herzog von Ratibor-Rennen second Ariolo (Ger) (Reliable Man {GB}), he can be forgiven that blip for now and remains an exciting prospect for July's G1 Deutsches Derby.

BEGINNINGS (f, 3, Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}–Winter {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire})

Ballydoyle's Beginnings, a slow-starting debut fourth over six furlongs at Naas in September, summoned the required improvement when making all in taking fashion to garner a seven-furlong Dundalk maiden in November, becoming a first European 'Rising Star' for her sire. That form received a welcome boost when 10th-place finisher Anann (Ire) (Footstepsinthesand {GB}) snagged a maiden at same track last Friday. Beginnings is the second foal produced by Winter (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), who shed her maiden status over the same Dundalk course and distance in 2016 before embarking on a dual Classic-winning Group 1 spree the following year. She is quoted at ante-post odds of 25-1 for the 1000 Guineas and that's just too tempting to resist.

IMPERIAL EMPEROR (IRE) (c, 3, Dubawi {Ire}–Zhukova {Ire}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus})

Jean-Claude Rouget is a fully paid-up member of the Dubawi fan club (see “Snowpark”), but nobody knows better than Charlie Appleby when it comes to conditioning offspring of the recently crowned champion sire. Step forward Imperial Emperor (Ire), whose introduction over the Rowley Mile on Arc weekend was one of abundant promise. The son of GI Man O' War S. victrix Zhukova (Ire) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}), herself a half-sister to sire Ghaiyyath (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), recovered from a tardy getaway and powered home majestically to earn his badge by daylight. “He is one we would try to pop out early in the spring in another novice event, then hopefully look at a Derby trial after that,” Appleby revealed afterwards and it would be wise to pay heed to a trainer festooned with another embarrassment of sophomore riches. Imperial Emperor is quoted at 20-1 for the Derby, for those that way inclined.

INTINSO (GB) (c, 3, Siyouni {Fr}–Rose Of Miracles {GB}, by Dalakhani {Ire})

Imad Al Sagar's famed Blue Diamond Stud silks of Authorized (Ire) (Montjeu {Ire}) and Nashwa (GB) (Frankel {GB}) were again in focus when the Gosden-trained Intinso was unveiled in a one-mile Newcastle test won in 2020 by Godolphin's GI Breeders' Cup Turf and dual German Group 1 scorer Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}). Justifying odds-on favouritism, he left his rivals trailing en route to an impressive 3 1/4-length win. He hails from a family featuring storied champion Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa), G1 Prix Vermeille heroine Galikova (Fr) (Galileo {Ire}) and multiple Group 1-placed sire Anodin (Ire) (Anabaa). Yet to receive any fancy engagements, he is quoted at high prices for both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby, with the former the likelier destination if good enough.

NAILA (FR) (f, 3, Adlerflug {Ger}–Naomia {Ger}, by Monsun {Ger})

Germany's sophomore Class of 2023 may be one for the ages with the calibre of Quantanamera (Ger) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), Alpenjager (Ger) (Nutan {Ire}) and Fantastic Moon (Ger) (Sea The Moon {Ger}), to name but three, adding lustre to a trio of 'TDN Rising Stars'. One of two Gestut Rottgen homebreds on this list, Naila surfaced with a scintillating display over 9 1/4 furlongs at Cologne in October, pouncing in the home straight to win unchallenged and eased down, by an impressive 10 lengths. The March-foaled bay is a half-sister to G3 Zukunfts-Rennen scorer Narella (Ire) (Reliable Man {GB}), produced by a stakes-winning daughter of G1 Oaks d'Italia victrix Nagoya (Ger) (Goofalik), and a path to August's G1 Preis der Diana (German Oaks) must be on the map.

PADDINGTON (GB) (c, 3, Siyouni {Fr}–Modern Eagle {Ger}, by Montjeu {Ire})

Coolmore and Westerberg's Paddington was the joint second-highest priced lot when fetching €420,000 at Arqana's 2021 October sale, but failed to fire on debut when starting slowly and racing greenly over seven furlongs at Ascot in September. However, he was a completely different animal six weeks later and downed a hot field by five lengths and more over the same trip at the Curragh to earn his stripes in style. Post-breakthrough, Aidan O'Brien indicated an intention to start off the upcoming campaign in a 2000 Guineas trial. Bred on the same Siyouni/Montjeu cross as the dual Grade I-placed Sacred Life (Fr), he is a grandson of G1 Prix de Diane second Millionaia (Ire) (Peintre Celebre). She is a half-sister to G1 Dewhurst S. runner-up Fencing Master (GB) (Oratorio {Ire}), out of G1 Prix Saint-Alary winner Moonlight Dance (Alysheba), and the family also features G1 Melbourne Cup second Heartbreak City (Fr) (Lando {Ger}). His optimum may not necessarily be the one-mile trip, but it's an obvious starting point.

PADISHAKH (FR) (c, 3, Wootton Bassett {GB}–Penny Lane {Ger}, by Lord Of England {Ger})

Nurlan Bizakov's €130,000 Arqana August yearling Padishakh unboxed his 'TDN Rising Star' effort in a nine-furlong newcomers' heat at ParisLongchamp, offering a glimpse of what was to come with an imperious 2 1/2-length win in September. One of three career 'Rising Stars' for his Coolmore-based sire, the Jean-Claude Rouget representative was even more spectacular next time, saluting by 5 1/2 lengths tackling the same distance at Chantilly in October. He is a son of stakes-winning G3 Prix Cleopatre third Penny Lane (Ger) (Lord Of England {Ger}), herself a full-sister to G1 Preis der Diana heroine Palmas (Ger), and could be anything.

SNOWPARK (FR) (f, 3, Dubawi {Ire}–Starlet's Sister {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire})

Ecurie des Monceaux homebred Snowpark, whose year-younger half-brother by Siyouni (Fr) fetched a sale-topping €2.1-million at the latest Arqana August fixture, created a stir of her own when delivering in a one-mile debutantes' heat at Deauville in October. Having negotiated traffic in the straight, the Jean-Claude Rouget trainee hit top gear late in proceedings and won going away to justify the pre-race hype. “I expected her to perform well, but to also improve in the future,” Rouget explained. “She has an aptitude for soft ground and it's extraordinary when you have progeny of Dubawi in the stable. They never show anything in the morning, but in the afternoon, wow. I love these horses.” The April-foaled filly has a page to die for and is a half-sister to Sottsass (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), Sistercharlie (Ire) (Myboycharlie {Ire}) and My Sister Nat (Fr) (Acclamation {GB}). All options are on the table at present.

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Lord Kanaloa’s Beginnings A New Rising Star At Dundalk

While the warmth and light was bestowed on Keeneland on Friday, the cool and dark backdrop of Dundalk played host to a red-hot prospect as Beginnings (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) stormed to TDN Rising Star status. Ballydoyle's daughter of their celebrated 1000 Guineas and Irish 1000 Guineas heroine Winter (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) had stepped forward markedly from her debut when fourth behind the subsequent Listed Star Appeal S. winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf protagonist Spirit Gal (Fr) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) over near six furlongs at Naas Sept. 15 and traded as the 8-11 favourite for the first division of the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden.

Sent straight to the front by Seamie Heffernan, the imposing bay always looked comfortable and when asked to open up for the last couple of the seven furlongs responded impressively to put six lengths between her and the well-regarded Ger Lyons-trained Sweetest Rose (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}), with another two lengths back to Zurana (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) in third. “She has a classy pedigree and she felt very classy,” Heffernan said of the first TDN Rising Star for her sire who recorded a time a mammoth two seconds faster than the second division doing it all on her own. “She's big, clear-winded, has pace and she galloped out through the winning post. She was very impressive. Without doubt she'll be, at least, a stakes filly.”

 

 

Pedigree Notes
Beginnings is the second foal out of Winter, who also broke her maiden over this course and distance in August 2016 when in the care of David Wachman before her career took off and who also garnered the G1 Coronation S. and G1 Nassau S. after her Guineas double. Her dam, the Wokingham H. winner Laddies Poker Two (Ire) (Choisir {Aus}) also produced Lovelier (Ire) by Galileo who captured the Listed Cairn Rouge S. and was second in the G2 Kilboy Estate S. Winter's next two foals are both by Justify, with last year yielding a colt and 2022 a filly.

3rd-Dundalk, €15,000, Mdn, 11-4, 2yo, f, 7fT, 1:25.40, st.
BEGINNINGS, f, 2, by Lord Kanaloa (Jpn)
     1st Dam: Winter (Ire) (MG1SW-Eng, G1SW-Ire, $1,424,358), by Galileo (Ire)
     2nd Dam: Laddies Poker Two (Ire), by Choisir (Aus)
     3rd Dam: Break Of Day, by Favorite Trick
Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $9,414. O-M Tabor/D Smith/Mrs J Magnier/Westerberg; B-Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt (KY); T-Aidan O'Brien. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.

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