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Baffert: Improbable ‘Getting Really Good’ While Maximum Security ‘Didn’t Bring His ‘A’ Game’

It was business as usual for Bob Baffert Sunday morning at Santa Anita after the two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer savored victories on Saturday by undefeated Princess Noor and relatively unsung Improbable in Breeders' Cup Challenge Series races at the Arcadia, Calif., track.

Princess Noor proved convincingly she can handle two turns, giving Baffert a record 12th triumph in the Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, while Improbable rallied from last to capture the G1 Awesome Again Stakes, vanquishing stablemate and odds-on favorite Maximum Security in the process.

“You're never sure about going two turns, and she was stuck behind horses coming out of the one hole, but she came out of the race really well,” Baffert said of Princess Noor, a $1,350,000 purchase owned by Saudi businessman Amr Zedan who campaigns as Zedan Racing

“She's still doing her thing and it looks like two turns is not going to be a problem for her,” Baffert added.

Princess Noor will likely be the favorite for the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland on Nov. 6.

Improbable and Maximum Security are likely headed to the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic on Nov. 7, Improbable earning a fees-paid berth with his Awesome Again victory and Maximum Security winning a similar spot through his triumph in the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

“Improbable and Max came out really well. I knew there was going to be a lot of pace, and we were going to sit off of it and then let Max run, but he was in between Midcourt and they were just bumping the whole way down the backside.

“They were in a full drive from the half-mile pole, but he didn't bring his A game, and Improbable is getting really good. He's got a lot of Grade 1's on his resume, he's filled out, matured, and Drayden (Van Dyke) rode a great race, just sat back there early on.

“He saw what was happening up front and let them go.”

Next up for Baffert is Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md. Thousand Words worked five furlongs in 1:00.60 Saturday at Churchill Downs towards that goal while Kentucky Derby winner Authentic works there Monday.

“As long as Authentic works good, both horses will ship to Maryland on Tuesday,” Baffert said.

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The Week in Review: Clout Heading into Classic, Older Horses or Upstart Sophs?

We’re now inside the six-week mark for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Is your money on an older horse winning the season-capping dirt route championship race or one of the 3-year-olds?

Both divisions have a respectable upper crust of candidates. Neither age group has a dominant, standout star who towers over his peers.

Improbable (City Zip)’s last-to-first, 4 1/2-length shakedown of the GI Awesome Again S. field at Santa Anita this past Saturday nudged him into tepid early favoritism for the Classic. The Oct. 10 GI Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park looms as the final Grade I dirt route for males prior to the Breeders’ Cup. But this season, the pandemic has given us the unique plot twist of the GI Preakness S. falling five weeks out from the Nov. 7 Classic, and Saturday’s concluding Triple Crown event will likely be the more impactful race of the two in sorting out the pecking order for the Breeders’ Cup.

Older horses have won 24 previous Classics; sophomores 12. In the 21st Century alone, the 2:1 ratio is roughly the same (14-6). Older horses have won the last three Classics (Vino Rosso, Accelerate, Gun Runner). But the three years prior to that were swept by a Bob Baffert-trained soph power trio (Bayern, American Pharoah, Arrogate).

So let’s start with Baffert first, because this year he’s holding a balanced hand of both older horses and 3-year-old threats for the Classic.

Baffert trainees ran one-two in the Awesome Again, with 9-5 second choice Improbable benefitting from an ideal speed setup that involved stablemate Maximum Security (New Year’s Day), the 1-2 favorite, committing to prominent placement behind a 59-1 pacemaker. ‘Max’ was always under pressure and sandwiched between horses while bumping and grinding in stalk mode for most of the trip. But he clearly did not have the requisite gear in reserve to put up a serious stretch battle when confronted by Improbable’s quarter-pole surge.

Improbable has now won three straight Grade I routes with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in each, and this colt appears to be rounding into form akin to what bettors envisioned when they sent him postward as the 4-1 chalk in last year’s GI Kentucky Derby. He was moved up to fourth in the wake of Maximum Security’s controversial DQ that day, and has since overcome habitual unruliness in the starting gate to blossom over nine and 10 furlongs after attempts to campaign as a miler didn’t pan out.

But Improbable hitting the road for the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland might be a different proposition than the Improbable who relishes his home track at Santa Anita. He’s 3-for-4 there lifetime, and Baffert said post-race Saturday that, “This horse loves this track. He seems to be better in the gate here. That’s why we ran him here. Elliott Walden [the president and CEO of Win Star Farm, a co-owner of the colt], it was his idea to keep him here because we don’t have to ship.”

While Maximum Security (10-for-13 lifetime) didn’t win, he was hardly disgraced in defeat. The colt is now three races into what is widely considered the second phase of his career, and the closely watched line of demarcation for this $16,000 maiden-claimer turned 3-year-old champ is his March transfer out of the barn of trainer Jason Servis, who is facing federal charges for allegedly using performance-enhancing drugs on racehorses.

The feds have Servis recorded via wiretap allegedly discussing (among other things) a 2019 doping regimen for Max, so his performance at age four is unquestionably being viewed through the prism of how much of his past prowess was attributable to illicit pharmaceuticals.

The verdict so far since moving into Baffert’s barn? Yes, Maximum Security has two wins and a second from three graded stakes starts in SoCal. But his far-turn blast-offs don’t ripple with the same raw, kinetic energy that Max flashed so brilliantly at age three. The visual impression he leaves now is of a hard-trying horse who still sustains a high cruising speed without backing away from fights–yet absent the palpable swagger and spark that once enabled him to swat away late-race attacks from A-level competition with ease.

On the sophomore side, Baffert also conditions Kentucky Derby victor and Preakness favorite Authentic (Into Mischief), who picked an ideal time to mature from a colt who had focusing issues into a front-running force capable of carrying his speed over 10 furlongs. Baffert will also send out Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile) in the Preakness. That million-dollar KEESEP colt was a late Derby scratch after flipping in the Churchill Downs paddock, and he resonates on paper as the quintessential “other” Baffert dark horse who could go off at a juicy Preakness price with all of the attention focused on Authentic.

Art Collector (Bernardini) figured to be the second favorite in the Derby before being forced to scratch the week of the race with a minor foot injury. He should emerge as the second favorite in the Preakness betting behind Authentic, and having the extra time between his last prep (an Aug. 9 win in the Ellis Park Derby) and the concluding jewel of the Triple Crown could end up working out in his favor for both the Preakness and beyond. Looking ahead to the Classic over the Keeneland surface, it’s worth noting that one of the best races in Art Collector’s past-performance block is his GII Toyota Blue Grass S. win there July 11.

Of course, the top 3-year-old Classic threat from an overall body of work standpoint remains Tiz the Law (Constitution). Even though he ran second in the Derby behind Authentic, ‘Tiz’ hardly ran a losing race–he sat a perfect stalking trip and uncoiled on cue, but genuinely seemed surprised when Authentic slugged back at him with ferocity in their stretch brawl. Trainer Barclay Tagg opted out of the Preakness to instead aim for the Classic, and he’ll head to Keeneland with a mature, confident aggressor who carries himself with panache and knows how to make his own breaks.

Other older-horse Classic candidates include Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), who won four straight stakes before losing to Improbable in the GI Whitney S.; Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}), who is expected for Saturday’s GII Kelso H. at Belmont, and By My Standards (Goldencents), who has a 4-2-0 record from six starts this year with three Grade II wins going long.

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Baffert 1-2 As Improbable Defeats Maximum Security In Awesome Again

With his highly regarded stablemate pressured while a joint second between horses going to the far turn, Bob Baffert's rapidly improving Improbable kicked into high gear from dead last and swept to an emphatic 4 1/2-length score in Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., a key prep for the G1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Nov 7.

Ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, Improbable got a mile and one eighth in 1:49.01 while notching his third consecutive G1 victory.

The Awesome Again, named for the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic winner that was bred in Ontario, Canada, by Frank Stronach and owned by his Stronach Stables, is a Breeders' Cup “Win & You're In” Challenge Race qualifier, with the winner earning a fees-paid berth into the Grade I, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland on Nov. 7.

Longshot Take the One O One, ridden by Jose Valdivia, Jr., set a solid pace while Maximum Security, regarded by many as the best horse in America, sat a joint second between Sleepy Eyes Todd and Midcourt, while Take the One O One opened up to a two-length lead a quarter mile out, only to see the winner sweep by four-deep turning for home.

“I knew I was coming in here with two really good horses,” said Baffert, who collected his fourth Awesome Again win. “Maximum Security was in that scrum and they were really running up close (together). I saw Drayden, he knew what was happening, so he just sat back. He rode a great race, he knew what was going on, he took his time, rode him with patience.

“He's had good luck with this horse. He loves this track. He seems to be better in the gate here, that's why we ran him here. I hate to see my horses have to beat the other horse but 'Max' ran gallantly. He fended off the speed, but the next one is the big one. But today, it was all about Improbable.”

Owned by WinStar Farm, LLC, China Horse Club International, Ltd. and SF Racing, LLC, Improbable, fifth as the favorite behind Maximum Security in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and most recently a winner of the G1 Whitney at Saratoga Aug. 1 and the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita June 6, was off at 9-5 and paid $5.60, $2.40 and $2.10.

“The gate guy did a fabulous job with him, holding him still, he got out clean,” said Van Dyke, who has now won six races with Improbable, including the Hollywood Gold Cup. “I was going to see what everyone else was gonna do, and they did what they did and I did what I did and it worked out good.”

With regard to his thoughts on the upcoming Breeders' Cup Classic, Van Dyke took an introspective approach. “I take it a day at a time and I'm grateful for this win. He showed a different tactic today, which he showed before when he was two. He used to come off the pace more than usual…He's been training super, so I was just waiting for the stretch to come.

“It's awesome, especially for Bob and the owners, everyone involved. I'm grateful for the chance. He's gotten better and better. He's a great horse.”

With today's win, Improbable, a 4-year-old colt by City Zip out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, collected his fourth G1 win and improved his overall mark to 14-7-3-0. With the winner's share of $180,000, he increased his earnings to $1,709,520.

Maximum Security, who became the only horse in Kentucky Derby history to be disqualified from victory for a racing infraction, had a six-race winning streak snapped in what was his third start for Baffert. Pressured between horses throughout, he battled gamely for the place, finishing a half length in front of Midcourt.

Reunited with Luis Saez, who last rode him in the $20 million Saudi Cup three starts back on Feb. 29, Maximum Security was the 1-2 favorite in a field of five and paid $2.10 and $2.10.

“There was a lot of pressure along the way and he couldn't get comfortable, but that's how these races go,” said Saez. “You win sometimes and don't others. The good thing is he pulled up pretty good, so let's see how next time goes. He was fighting at the end of the race, but we lost.”

Off at 12-1 with Victor Espinoza, Midcourt paid $2.40 to show.

Fractions on the race were 23.33, 46.36, 1:09.79 and 1:35.65.

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Weekend Lineup: Awesome Again Highlights Stakes Action At Santa Anita

The upcoming week is highlighted by the opening of Santa Anita Park's fall meet, which was delayed by a week due to wildfires in the region. The weekend's slate features seven Breeders' Cup Challenge Series “Win and You're In” races including Saturday's headliner, the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes, which offers a fees-paid berth into the Breeders' Cup Classic.

TVG is the go-to network for comprehensive coverage of racing at Santa Anita Park, starting on opening day September 25. TVG will also feature racing from marquee venues across the country including Gulfstream Park, Monmouth Park and more.

Racing from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs continues on “America's Day at the Races” which airs on either FS1 or FS2. Check the schedule below for air times. The weekend's coverage on “America's Day at the Races” is highlighted by Saturday's Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont, a “Win and You're In” qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Friday September 25

6:12 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

Bob Baffert holds a strong three-card hand in the Chillingworth Stakes at Santa Anita, with his streaking 4-year-old Qahira, who is in search of her fourth consecutive win, rating top billing among a field of seven fillies and mares three and up going 6 ½ furlongs. Baffert will also be well represented by classy Quality Response, a restricted stakes winner at two who will be making her second start of the year on Friday and by recent restricted stakes winner Message, a 4-year-old filly that will be shortening up out of four consecutive routes.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092520USA6-EQB.html

6:43 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 2 Eddie D. Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

A graded stakes winning turf sprinter who was most recently a close fourth in a Grade 1 sprint on dirt, trainer Doug O'Neill's Wildman Jack looks like the horse to beat among a field of seven 3-year-olds and up in Friday's Eddie D. Stakes to be run at 5 ½ furlongs on turf. A W.C. Racing homebred 4-year-old gelding by O'Neill's 2013 Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents, Wildman Jack was last seen at Santa Anita winning the Grade 3 Daytona Stakes three starts back on May 23.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092520USA7-EQB.html

Saturday September 26

2:16 p.m.—$125,000 Grade 3 Ontario Fashion Stakes at Woodbine on TVG

Sav chases her second added-money title in Saturday's $125,000 Ontario Fashion, a six-furlong main track event which has attracted six starters. Trained by Ricky Griffith for owner Steven Duffield, Sav, who took last year's La Prevoyante Stakes, will go after her second straight win after a half-length score over seven furlongs on the E.P. Taylor Turf Course on August 15.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/WO092620CAN3-EQB.html

4:35 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 2 Chandelier Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

With three out of the five runners in the Chandelier Stakes, Bob Baffert would appear to “have 'em surrounded” indeed, as his budding starlet Princess Noor fairly towers over her competitors, based upon two impressive tallies at Del Mar over the summer. Princess Noor has done little wrong in two starts, taking her 5 ½ furlong debut by 2 ½ lengths at 3-5 on August 22 and crushing five rivals by 6 ½ lengths at 3-5 in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante going seven furlongs on September 6.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092620USA3-EQB.html

4:42 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes at Belmont Park on FS2

Feel Glorious (GB) has finished on the board in each of her last six starts and will look to win her second consecutive stakes contest in Saturday's Noble Damsel for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up on the Belmont Park Widener turf. Owned by Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Tango Uniform Racing, Feel Glorious defeated fellow Noble Damsel-contender Chaleur in the 1 1/16-mile Perfect Sting on August 14 over firm Saratoga Race Course turf. That marked the Bated Breath filly's first win in three attempts of her 4-year-old campaign, which started with a third-place effort in the Grade 2 New York going 1 1/4 miles on June 27 at Belmont.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL092620USA8-EQB.html

4:53 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes at Churchill Downs on FS2

Ten Strike Racing and Madaket Stables' multiple stakes winner Warrior's Charge tops a full field of 14 that were entered in the one-mile Ack Ack. Trained by Brad Cox, Warrior's Charge was elevated to first in last month's Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes at Monmouth after interference by Pirate's Punch in the stretch. Warrior's Charge, a 4-year-old son of Munnings, won the Grade 3 Razorback at Oaklawn earlier this year and finished second behind By My Standards in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/CD092620USA9-EQB.html

5:14 p.m.—$150,000 Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont Park on FS2

Six-time graded stakes winning millionaire Firenze Fire will take on five others in Saturday's Vosburgh Stakes over six furlongs. Firenze Fire has won four of his seven starts over Big Sandy, including a 1 ½-length score in the Grade 2 True North on June 27 three starts back. During his juvenile season, the Florida homebred son of Poseidon's Warrior bested subsequent champion Good Magic in the Grade 1 Champagne on October 2017 and was a runaway nine-length winner of the Grade 3 Dwyer in July 2018.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/BEL092620USA9-EQB.html

6:41 p.m.—$300,000 Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

Blessed with a pair of talented turf distaffers, trainer Richard Baltas has a big look at the Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita, as his Lady Prancealot (IRE), a fast closing second in her most recent start, has solid distance credentials, while his Bodhicitta is in top form although distance may be a question. A winner of the Grade 1 American Oaks in her only try at the Rodeo Drive distance five starts back on December 28, Lady Prancealot is winless in four graded stakes this year, but she flew late to be beaten a diminishing neck in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes at Del Mar September 5 and merits top billing.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092620USA7-EQB.html

7:12 p.m.—$300,000 Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

A gutty runner-up in two summertime starts, Bob Baffert's highly regarded Spielberg looms the horse to beat in the American Pharoah Stakes. Most recently second, beaten 1 ¾ lengths in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity going seven furlongs on September 7, Spielberg, a $1 million Keeneland September Yearling, will try two turns for the first time and be ridden for the first time by eastern-based Luis Saez.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092620USA8-EQB.html

7:43 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 2 John Henry Turf Championship Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

A winner of three out of his last four starts and no worse than third in his last nine, Richard Mandella's classy United heads up a field of eight 3-year-olds in Saturday's John Henry Turf Championship. Most recently second, beaten a diminishing head at 3-5 in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, United will again use the John Henry as a springboard to the Breeders' Cup Turf at Keeneland, a race in which he was a close second to eventual Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar last year at Santa Anita.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092620USA9-EQB.html

8:14 p.m.—$300,000 Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

Unbeaten in two starts for Bob Baffert, Gary and Mary West's homebred Maximum Security, the No. 1-ranked horse in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, heads a field of field of five in Awesome Again Stakes. Maximum Security comes off a huge three length win in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on August 22 and will once again be a prohibitive favorite. Baffert's Improbable, winner of the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga August 1, will be bidding for his third consecutive win.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092620USA10-EQB.html

Sunday September 27

5 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

An impressive gate to wire winner of her last two starts, the Gary and Mary West homebred Fighting Mad looms a standout in the Zenyatta Stakes, to be contested at 1 1/16-miles. Trainer Simon Callaghan's Harvest Moon, a 3-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo, has won her last three starts and is an up and comer that will attract considerable pari-mutuel attention. Hard Not to Love, a Grade 1 winner and well accomplished, comes off a dull sixth behind Fighting Mad in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar and will hope to rebound for trainer John Shirreffs.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092720USA4-EQB.html

5:24 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks at Remington Park on TVG

Trainer Kenny McPeek has three of the eight horses entered for the Remington Park Oaks, including the heavy 7-5 morning-line favorite Envoutante. McPeek is looking for his second victory in this race, having won the 2013 edition with Montana Native. His other two entrants also certainly have a shot Sunday with Jeweled Princess at 4-1 and Curls and Bows at 6-1. That gives him three of the top four favorites in this field.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RP092720USA4-EQB.html

7 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

Trainer Mark Glatt's red-hot Collusion Illusion, who seeks his fourth consecutive win and C Z Rocket, in search of his fifth consecutive win photo, headline a solid field of five 3-year-olds and up in Sunday's Santa Anita Sprint Championship at six furlongs. A winner of five out of six starts, Collusion Illusion was all heart in taking Del Mar's Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes by a nose on August 1, while C Z Rocket, in his first graded stakes assignment, proved best by half a length in the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien going seven furlongs on August 29.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092720USA8-EQB.html

8 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Tokyo City Cup Stakes at Santa Anita Park on TVG

In a marathon devoid of any clear standout, Tizamagician, Azul Coast and Combatant all figure prominently among a field of seven in the Tokyo City Cup. A gate to wire first condition allowance winner going one mile on September 5 at Del Mar, Tizamagician broke his maiden on January 1 and now has two wins from six starts this year. A non-threatening fifth on turf in the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap August 9, Azul Coast was second to his eventual Kentucky Derby winning stablemate Authentic five starts back in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes January 4.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/SA092720USA10-EQB.html

8:12 p.m.—$200,000 Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park on TVG

A competitive field of nine horses were drawn for the Oklahoma Derby with Indiana Derby winner Shared Sense being made the 5-2 morning-line favorite. The three horses with top earnings in the field are close in talent and in odds with Dean Martini at 7-2. He comes in as the winner of the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby and the top money earner in the field of nine horses at $393,202. Rowdy Yates, trying to become only the third Oklahoma-bred to win the Oklahoma Derby, is second in earnings with $346,556, and listed as the third-choice in the morning line at 4-1 odds.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/RP092720USA10-EQB.html

11:55 p.m.—$100,000 Grade 3 Canadian Derby at Century Mile on TVG

Trainer Robertino Diodoro has won four of the last seven Canadian Derbies. He goes for his fifth on Sunday with Something Natural, who was third in the Manitoba Derby behind Mongolian Wind and Mr. Unusual, who have both come to Edmonton. Something Natural did run second to eventual Louisiana Derby winner Wells Bayou at Oaklawn Park and also won a solid allowance race at Oaklawn.

Entries: https://www.equibase.com/static/entry/CTM092720CAN10-EQB.html

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