‘Honest’ Tripoli Has Found A New Home On The Main Track

Sired by Kitten's Joy, America's leading active turf stallion eight years in a row and the sire of more than 100 stakes winners in 12 crops, it made sense to have Tripoli race exclusively on grass when the chestnut colt began his career at Santa Anita on May 23, 2020.

It was far from an auspicious debut, however, as Tripoli finished 12th and last at 13-1 in the 5 ½ furlong turf sprint. He did a complete turnaround in his next race, winning by a nose over the same venue at odds of 46-1.

Tripoli captured one more turf victory in nine subsequent grass starts, this one going a mile at Santa Anita on May 1. After that, trainer John Sadler and owners Hronis Racing LLC sought greener pastures in the form of three straight runs on the main track, capping them with a victory in the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic at a mile and a quarter on Aug. 21.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it, so next up is Saturday's Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes on Santa Anita's main track, one of five graded events that day, three of them Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” Challenge Races giving the winner a fees-paid berth to their respective Breeders' Cup races on Nov. 5 and 6 at Del Mar.

“Tripoli won a nice race (on dirt) at Santa Anita in the spring,” Sadler said, referring to an overnight route on June 19. “We took him to Del Mar and he continued his improvement with a second (by a half-length) in the Grade II San Diego Handicap (July 17).

“Then he came back and won the Pacific Classic. He's a horse that just loves the dirt right now. He's honest and consistently runs well. He was unlucky a few times on the turf but he should run well on Saturday.

“It looks like a good spot.”

A son of the Irish-bred stallion El Prado, Kitten's Joy stands for $60,000 at Hill 'n' Dale farms in Paris, Ky.

Sadler reports that Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World, who was nominated to the Awesome Again, will instead be pointed to the Grade 2 Twilight Derby at a mile and one eighth on turf closing day, Oct. 31.

The Awesome Again, race 10 of 11 with an early 12:30 p.m. first post time: Tizamagician, Flavien Prat, 4-1; Midcourt, Edwin Maldonado, 12-1; Express Train, Juan Hernandez, 4-1; Stilleto Boy, Kent Desormeaux, 20-1; Medina Spirit, John Velazquez, 5-2; Azul Coast, Abel Cedillo, 12-1; Tripoli, Tiago Pereira, 3-1; and Idol, Joe Bravo, 5-1.

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Stallion-Making Potential For Improbable and Promises Fulfilled

When considering stallion potential, brilliance and precocity are rarely left out of the equation. But a unique find emerges when a headlining juvenile can carry out his talent as a sophomore and even as an older horse before beginning his stud career.

Two of WinStar Farm’s new recruits for 2021, Improbable (City Zip) and Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), showed brilliance early on in their careers as flashy debut winners before each went on to become stakes winners at three and four.

We spoke with WinStar’s David Hanley on the pair of Grade I-winning additions.

Improbable (City Zip), $40,000

“The thing that was so impressive about this horse was his soundness,” Hanley said of four-time Grade I winner and Eclipse candidate Improbable. “From when he went to Bob Baffert as a 2-year-old, he never missed a day, never had an issue. He was so consistent. Every week you asked how he worked and Bob’s response was, ‘awesome.'”

In his 15 career starts over three years, Improbable ran in the money in all but four.

“I think that soundness is really important for his future as a sire because in the world we live in today, soundness is such a factor,” Hanley said. “This horse with his mechanics, the way he moved and how sound he was, if he passes that on to his progeny, it gives him a great shot to have a lot of runners.”

A $200,000 Keeneland September purchase, Improbable was a debut winner for the same owner-trainer connections that campaigned another speedy chestnut in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy). He followed up with a 7 1/4-length victory in the Street Sense S. on the 2018 Breeders’ Cup undercard while earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ nod.

He wrapped up his 2-year-old season with a win in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, defeating eventual Grade I-winning stablemate Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man) by five lengths.

“He ran that race in the fastest time of the previous 10 years,” Hanley noted. “He really was a top-class 2-year-old and always showed that. From when we broke him in the spring, he just had it together.”

From there, Improbable ran second in the GII Rebel S. and again in the GI Arkansas Derby behind Omaha Beach (War Front).

He finished fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, and although he registered a victory in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar’s summer meet, the chestnut couldn’t land a graded stakes win in the later half of his 3-year-old year.

“I think after going through the Derby, he got a little bit frazzled and kind of lost his way a bit through the rest of his 3-year-old season,” Hanley admitted. “He got very fired up in the gate and was running his races very hard on the bridle and not settling. But then as a 4-year-old when he got back to Bob in the spring, suddenly he was working a bit more relaxed. He was working unbelievably and showed it on the racetrack when he won three straight Grade I races with 105, 106 and 108 Beyers.”

Hanley notes Improbable’s 4 1/2-length win over barnmate and champion Maximum Security (New Year’s Day) in the GI Awesome Again S. as his strongest race of the Grade I trio.

“When Drayden Van Dyke took hold of him and he got on the bridle and let him run, he just exploded. I think that was a really super impressive performance.”

Equally as memorable was his two-length victory in last summer’s GI Whitney S.

“He was always in control of that race,” Hanley said. “He traveled easily just off the pace and when Irad [Ortiz] took the lead, he just drove off from there.”

While Improbable ran second behind Authentic (Into Mischief) in his final career start in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, he earned a 108 Beyer and a 2 Ragozin, the fastest of the race, while traveling over six lengths farther than the winner.

Improbable retired with earnings of over $2.7 million as the leading earner for his sire City Zip, who passed away when Improbable was a yearling.

“City Zip was a wonderful sire,” Hanley said. “He sired 72 stakes winners, six champions, and was a wonderful racehorse himself. So I think that’s a sire line that’s going to produce some good stallions.”

Improbable is a son of the winning A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, whose stakes-winning dam Our Rite of Spring (Stavinsky) is a half-sister to Grade I winner and sire Hard Spun (Danzig).

“City Zip was by Carson City, who was out of a Blushing Groom mare. Interestingly, Our Rite of Spring is by Stravinsky, who is also out of a Blushing Groom mare. So I think that’s huge sire-making pedigree potential,” Hanley said.

With other top sires in Awesome Again, Giant’s Causeway and Candy Ride (Arg) hailing from the Blushing Groom line on their damside, Hanley said he believes with Blushing Groom on both Improbable’s top and bottom side, his pedigree shows a unqiue potential.

“He’s also out of a really deep Darby Dan family,” he added. “He comes from one of their great foundation mares Banquet Bell, who herself was the dam of a Kentucky Derby and Belmont S. winner and a champion.”

Already booked to 160 mares for this season, Improbable has been popular with the breeders.

“He is what I would consider a medium-sized horse,” Hanley said. “He’s tremendously well made. He’s got great length from his hip to his hock and great leverage behind. He really hits the ground, as Drayden Van Dyke said, ‘like a cloud.'”

From the beginning, Hanley says, Improbable’s most noticeable quality was his exceptional movement–an asset that has proven to be useful in attracting a strong book of mares for his initial season at stud.

“From the first few times we worked him on the farm as a

2-year-old, he would breeze a quarter and then just gallop around the track like there was no end to him,” Hanley said. “He had great motion and everything came easy to him. As Bob Baffert said, he’s one of the prettiest-moving horses you could ever see and I think that’s something that’s going to stand him in good stead if he can produce that in his foals.”

Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), $10,000

“I think his trademark was how genuine he was,” Hanley said of five-time graded stakes winner Promises Fulfilled. “He would go as fast as he could and when the other horses would come to him, he would bear down and give everything he had. He would drop down and stick his head out and give his all every time.”

Recruited and trained by Dale Romans for Robert Baron, Promises Fulfilled was a four-length debut winner at two before taking an allowance at Keeneland and running third in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. to wrap up his juvenile season.

He continued on the Derby trail at three with a victory in the GII Fountain of Youth S., breaking first and never giving up the lead to defeat Strike Power (Speightstown) and champion Good Magic (Curlin) by 2 1/4 lengths.

The speedy chestnut broke on top in his next two starts, clocking a :45.77 half mile going head-to-head with Justify (Scat Daddy) in the GI Kentucky Derby, but failed to stay on to finish in the money.

 

He realized his full potential after turning back in distance in the later half of his 3-year-old season with consecutive wins in the GIII Amsterdam S., GI H. Allen Jerkens S. and GII Phoenix S.

“It was quite an amazing performance to go through what he did in the spring trying to stretch out and then come back and be as competitive as he was,” Hanley said. “That was the period of time when we started to think he was a really serious horse.”

A win the following summer in the GII John Nerud S. with a career-high 108 Beyer sealed the deal, and WinStar bought in on the millionaire earner soon after.

“He was very fast out of the gates, always on pace and really let himself down in his races to finish up strong,” Hanley said. “He ran six sub-:44.4 times in graded races.”

After a layoff following his 4-year-old season, an issue days before his next start kept Promises Fulfilled from racing on at five in 2020.

“It was kind of unfortunate because he was a year from running when he went to stud, so people are quick to forget just how good of a 3-year-old he was,” Hanley said. “But we’re really excited about him because we think he was a horse with a lot of speed and ability.”

Promises Fulfilled retired with earnings of nearly $1.5 million and ran in the money in 10 of his 17 career starts.

“One thing that I think marks this horse’s character is that fact that he was able to go through the Kentucky Derby preps, run in the Kentucky Derby and then come back and win a Grade I going seven furlongs. It speaks to the character and quality of horse that he was.”

Hanley noted that breeders have been surprised that the sprinter’s physical reflects more of a two-turn type mold.

“He’s quite a big horse, with a lot of leg under him and a lot of stretch to him,” he said. “So it’s interesting that he was as fast as he was. We’re really excited to see what kind of foals he’ll produce because with his pedigree, speed and physique, he’s capable of getting two-turn horses that have some speed.”

The son of Shackleford is out of the Marquetry mare Marquee Delivery, who herself is Grade III placed but is also the dam of three additional black-type horses. Promises Fulfilled’s half-sister Marquee Miss (Cowboy Cal) was a five-time stakes winner.

“Shackleford was by Forestry (Storm Cat), so it’s a speed sire line,” Hanley said. “Shackleford himself was out of the mare Oatsee, who is by Unbridled. So you can see where Shackleford got his leg and size, and where Promises Fulfilled got it as well.”

He continued, “I think he’ll put a bit of size and stretch into his mares. He could fit anything. He was such a fast horse, and he did win going a mile and a sixteenth and looks like a two-turn horse, so anything is possible.”

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Santa Anita Media Poll: Improbable Named Horse Of The Meet

Bob Baffert-trained Improbable, winner of the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes on Sept. 26, heads Santa Anita's 2020 Autumn Meet Media Poll, which recognizes equine and human accomplishments in a variety of categories throughout the 16-day meeting which began on Sept. 25 and concluded Sunday, Oct. 25.

2020 Santa Anita Autumn Media Poll

Horse of Meet: Improbable

Sprinter: C. Z. Rocket

Older Horse: Improbable

Older Filly/Mare: Mucho Unusual

Claimer: Psycho Dar

Grass Horse: United

Grass Filly/Mare: Mucho Unusual

3-Year-Old: Smooth Like Strait

3-Year-Old Filly: Harvest Moon

Trainer: Peter Miller/Bob Baffert (each had 11 wins)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (27 wins)

Apprentice: Alexis Centeno (7 wins)

Race: Santa Anita Sprint Championship

Owner: Reddam Racing, LLC

Achievement: Craig Lewis, 1,000 Career Wins

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Improbable Takes Over Top Spot In Breeders’ Cup Classic Rankings

Improbable, a commanding 4 ½-length winner of Saturday's Awesome Again Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park, leaped from fourth to first place in Week #11 of the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings, overtaking stablemate Maximum Security for the top spot.

The 2020 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings is a weekly poll of the top 10 horses in contention for the $6 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). The 1 ¼-mile Classic, scheduled to be run on Nov. 7 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky., is the climactic race of the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

Improbable (308 votes), owned by WinStar Farm, CHC Inc. and SF Racing, and Maximum Security (274 votes), the Awesome Again runner-up, owned by Gary and Mary West, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith, are both trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. The Awesome Again was a Breeders' Cup Challenge automatic qualifying race for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic. Improbable had already earned a Classic berth when he won the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 1.

GMB Racing's Tom's d'Etat (268 votes), who captured the “Win and You're In” Stephen Foster Stakes (G2), drops from second to third place, and is now followed in fourth by Sackatoga Stable's Tiz the Law (223 votes), winner of both the Belmont (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1).

The next six places in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings remain unchanged.  Spendthrift Farm, MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket Stables and Starlight Racing's Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Authentic (207 votes), the 9-5 favorite in Saturday's “Win and You're In” Preakness Stakes (G1), is in fifth place. Also trained by Baffert, Authentic earned a Classic berth when he won the TVG.com Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park on July 18. Authentic is followed by Allied Racing Stable's By My Standards (162 votes) and W.S. Farish's Code of Honor (92 votes) in sixth and seventh place, respectively.

Bruce Lunsford's Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner Art Collector (83 votes), the 5-2 second choice in the Preakness, is in eighth place, one spot ahead of Sagamore Farm and WinStar Farm's Woodward Stakes (G1) winner Global Campaign (74 votes). Juddmonte Farms' Suburban Stakes (G2) winner Tacitus (64 votes) is in 10th place.

Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings – Sept. 30, 2020*

RANK HORSE TOTAL VOTES FIRST-PLACE VOTES
1 Improbable 308 15
2 Maximum Security 274 7
3 Tom's d'Etat 268 8
4 Tiz the Law 223 4
5 Authentic 207 0
6 By My Standards 162 0
7 Code of Honor   92 0
8 Art Collector   83 0
9 Global Campaign   74 0
10 Tacitus   64 0

*Note – The Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings have no bearing on qualification or selection into the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic.

The Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings are determined by a panel of leading Thoroughbred racing media, horseplayers and members of the Breeders' Cup Racing Directors/Secretaries Panel. Rankings will be announced each week through Oct. 13. A list of voting members can be found here.

In the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings, each voter rates horses on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 system in descending order.

The 2020 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic will be televised live on NBC.

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