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Tiz The Law Expected Favorite For Pool 6 Of Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Sackatoga Stable's multiple Grade I winner Tiz the Law has been at the top of the Kentucky Derby standings for nearly 10 months and is the expected favorite in Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (“KDFW”), which will run Friday to Sunday.

Pool 6 of the KDFW will run concurrently with Pool 2 of the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager. In addition to Win and Exacta betting, an Oaks/Derby Future Double is part of the wagering menu. The wagers will open Friday at noon (all times Eastern) and the KDFW will close Sunday at 6 p.m. while the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will close 30 minutes later at 6:30 p.m.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, both the $1.25 million Longines Kentucky Oaks (GI) and $3 million Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (GI) were postponed to the first Friday and Saturday in September, respectively. This weekend's Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will be the final opportunity to wager on the race prior to the Sept. 4 Kentucky Oaks while the KDFW will offer an additional pool on Aug. 7-9.

Veteran odds maker Mike Battaglia has installed Tiz the Law as the 5-2 morning line favorite out of 24 betting interests in Pool 6 of the KDFW. Trained by Barclay Tagg, Tiz the Law has been one of the top individual betting favorites in each of the first five pools of the KDFW. So far, the highest odds that Tiz the Law offered was 11-1 in Pool 1. In the last four pools, he closed at odds of 8-1, 7-1, 7-1 and 2-1, respectively. Tiz the Law is expected to have one additional prep race prior to the Kentucky Derby in the $1 million Travers Stakes (GI) on Aug. 8 at Saratoga.

One of the other horses that is likely take betting interest is Bruce Lunsford's $600,000 Blue Grass (GII) winner Art Collector. Trained by Tommy Drury, Art Collector went off at 20-1 in Pool 5 of the KDFW, which closed three weeks prior to his Blue Grass victory. Art Collector solidified his spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby and currently sits at No. 4 on the leaderboard with 100 points.

Other top betting interests in Pool 6 of the KDFW include C R K Stable's $400,000 Santa Anita Derby (GI) hero Honor A.P. (5-1); Karl Watson, Michael Pegram and Paul Weitman's late Triple Crown nominee Uncle Chuck (10-1); and Spendthrift Farm, Starlight Racing and Madaket Stables' Santa Anita Derby runner-up Authentic (10-1).

Seven betting interests in Pool 6 of the KDFW were not offered in Pool 5: Attachment Rate (50-1); Dean Martini (50-1); Major Fed (50-1); Modernist (50-1); Shared Sense (30-1); South Bend (50-1); and Storm the Court (50-1). This is the first pool that Attachment Rate, Dean Martini and Shared Sense have been offered and the first time since Pool 1 that South Bend has been offered.

Dean Martini, Rushie and Shared Sense are not currently nominated to the Kentucky Derby but can become eligible with a $45,000 late payment due at the time of entry.

Here's the complete Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 6 field (with morning line odds): #1 Art Collector (9-2); #2 Attachment Rate (50-1); #3 Authentic (10-1); #4 Cezanne (20-1); #5 Dean Martini (50-1); #6 Dr Post (20-1); #7 Enforceable (30-1); #8 Honor A. P. (5-1); #9 King Guillermo (30-1); #10 Major Fed (50-1); #11 Max Player (30-1); #12 Modernist (50-1); #13 Mystic Guide (50-1); #14 Ny Traffic (50-1); #15 Pneumatic (30-1); #16 Rushie (30-1); #17 Shared Sense (30-1); #18 South Bend (50-1); #19 Storm the Court (50-1); #20 Thousand Words (50-1); #21 Tiz the Law (5-2); #22 Uncle Chuck (10-1); #23 “All 3-Year-Old Fillies” (12-1); and #24 “All Other 3-Year-Old Males” (15-1).

In the Oaks Future Wager, top 3-year-old fillies Gamine (9-5) and Swiss Skydiver (3-1) are expected to take much of the betting attention in the field of 24 interests.

Gamine, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and owned by Michael Petersen, scored a dazzling 18 ¾-length victory in the $300,000 Acorn (GI). The undefeated daughter of Into Mischief has been highly regarded since her debut in early March and defeated eventual $400,000 Ashland (GI) winner Speech two starts ago in a first-level allowance event at Oaklawn Park.

Gamine could clash with Peter Callahan's three-time graded stakes winner Swiss Skydiver on the first Friday in September. Trained by Kenny McPeek, Swiss Skydiver was the runner-up behind Art Collector in last weekend's Blue Grass at Keeneland. McPeek reported his plans remain in flux when it came to try Swiss Skydiver once again against males in the Kentucky Derby or point toward the Kentucky Oaks.

Other top fillies expected to take betting attention in Pool 2 of the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager include Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Madaket Stables' Speech; Kaleem Shah, Mrs John Magnier, Michel Tabor and Derrick Smith's come-backing $100,000 Santa Ysabel (GIII) winner Donna Veloce (12-1); Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, Thomas Reiman, William Dickson and Deborah Easter's $300,000 Rachel Alexandra (GII) victor Finite; and Ciaglia Racing, Highland Yard, River Oak Farm and Dominic Savides' Ashland runner-up Venetian Harbor (12-1).

Pool 2 entrants Altaf (30-1), Mundaye Call (50-1), Paris Lights (50-1) and Project Whiskey (50-1) are not currently nominated to the Kentucky Oaks but can become eligible with a $500 late nomination on Aug. 15. Queen of God (50-1) was not originally nominated to the Oaks but Churchill Downs officials have received her late $500 nomination fee.

Here is the field for Pool 2 of the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager (with morning line odds): #1 Altaf (30-1); #2 Bayerness (50-1); #3 Bonny South (30-1); #4 Donna Veloce (12-1); #5 Dream Marie (50-1); #6 Envoutante (30-1); #7 Finite (12-1); #8 Gamine (9-5); #9 Harvey's Lil Goil (20-1); #10 Impeccable Style (30-1); #11 Mundaye Call (50-1); #12 Paris Lights (50-1); #13 Pleasant Orb (50-1); #14 Project Whiskey (50-1); #15 Queen of God (50-1); #16 Shedaresthedevil (30-1); #17 Speech (8-1); #18 Spice is Nice (20-1); #19 Swiss Skydiver (3-1); #20 Tempers Rising (50-1); #21 Tonalist's Shape (30-1); #22 Venetian Harbor (12-1); #23 Water White (50-1); and #24 “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies” (20-1).

On March 17, Churchill Downs Incorporated announced the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI) would be rescheduled from Saturday, May 2 to Saturday, Sept. 5 amid public health concerns in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Future Wagers feature $2 Win and Exacta wagering, and provides fans of Thoroughbred racing with opportunities to place bets on possible entrants in the Kentucky Derby at odds that could be far greater than those available on the day of the race. A special Oaks/Derby Double wager also will be offered.

Bets for the KDFW can be placed on TwinSpires.com and other online wagering outlets across North America. There are no refunds in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. Should Churchill Downs officials determine during the duration of the three-day pool that one of the wagering interests has experienced an injury, illness or other circumstance that would prevent the horse from participating in the Kentucky Derby, betting on the individual horse will be suspended immediately.

More information and real-time odds are available online at www.kentuckyderby.com/futurewager.

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Art Collector Puts Sire Back In the Frame

Maybe he was just born too beautiful, and too rich, to be setting the alarm every single morning and riding the same suburban train to work. He can leave the maximisation of income, the humdrum consistency, to lesser creatures. Like some aristocratic dilettante touched by genius, however, Bernardini (A.P. Indy) remains ever capable of producing a masterpiece.

The Darley stallion had lately become so slack–only two graded stakes winners in each of the past two years–that this spring he suffered his third consecutive cut, to just $40,000, having commanded a six-figure fee as recently as 2017. At the same time, however, he was emerging as a priceless option for breeders who might retain a filly for their broodmare band.

In a curious trade-off, the more Bernardini’s own runners lost momentum, the more precocious he has proved as a broodmare sire. But let’s not forget that we are still talking about the sire of 10 domestic Grade I winners (plus three in Australasia and one each in Dubai and Italy); and one who remains younger, at 17, than all 10 active sires who can match or better that tally. And now it might just have taken his fancy to pull a Derby winner out of his hat.

Wind back a month or so, and the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. was only going to confirm his recent direction of travel. Connections had decided that the scintillating Maxfield (Street Sense), who is out of a Bernardini mare, would sit out the GI Belmont S. and instead return to the track where he had last fall produced the standout juvenile performance of the year.

A couple of days later, however, Maxfield suffered the second untimely injury of his career–and hindsight makes it hard to believe he would not have won the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but for the first–and would miss not only the Blue Grass but also the postponed GI Kentucky Derby itself.

In his absence, last Saturday’s race drew a field of 13 including the adventurous filly Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil). She ran a fine second, but the authoritative winner–by 3 1/2 lengths, with the chasing pack of colts beaten almost another five–was a flourishing son of Bernardini.

Art Collector has really got on a roll since switching to dirt, getting better with experience and clearly thriving in the hands of Thomas Drury, Jr. On his previous start he had thrashed Shared Sense at Churchill and, while Art Collector controlled a light pace that day, the Godolphin colt (himself, like Maxfield, by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare) reinforced the form three days before the Blue Grass by winning the GIII Indiana Derby.

Home-bred by Bruce Lunsford, Art Collector is the second foal of his GI Flower Bowl S. runner-up Distorted Legacy (Distorted Humor). (She was also beaten barely a length when just missing the podium in the GI Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf in 2011.) She is a half-sister to Grade II winner and millionaire Vision And Verse (Storm Cat), who also went close at the elite level, denied both the GI Belmont S. and GI Travers S. only by Lemon Drop Kid (Kingmambo).

Lunsford bred both from a mare he had acquired as a transfusion of noble Greentree blood. Bunting (Private Account) cost $500,000 at Keeneland November as a 3-year-old back in 1994: and little wonder, as she was not only Grade I-placed but also a grand-daughter of the Greentree matriarch Bebopper.

Bebopper was a Tom Fool half-sister to the dam of Buckaroo, the pair out of an imported half-sister to an Epsom Oaks winner. Her 11 winners, headed by Stop The Music and Hatchet Man (consecutive GII Dwyer S. winners, among other distinctions), also included a four-time winner by Hoist The Flag named Flag Waver.

Flag Waver can also be found as fourth dam of multiple Grade I winner Stopchargingmaria (Tale of the Cat)–so ensuring a family echo, Stopchargingmaria being out of a mare by Buckaroo’s son Montbrook–but concerns us here as the dam of Bunting. It’s not hard to see the thinking: by Private Account out of a Hoist The Flag mare, Bunting represented the same model that had produced Hall of Famer Personal Ensign.

Now, as it happens, it was Personal Ensign’s daughter My Flag (Easy Goer) who ran down a daughter of Quiet American named Cara Rafaela to win the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies of 1995. That was one of five occasions on which Cara Rafaela finished second at Grade I level, but she did get the elite score she deserved–narrowly, in her ninth juvenile start–in the Hollywood Starlet S.

Cara Rafaela belonged to what turned out to be remarkably resonant first crop by her sire. Quiet American’s track career had given him limited early traction at stud: after a fruitless start in Europe, the son of Fappiano had got his act together in California too late to make an oversubscribed field for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic–only to win the GI NYRA Mile H. (now the Cigar Mile) by five lengths in 1:32 4/5 the following weekend. Unfortunately he had to be retired after a single start at five, and dust gathered on his reputation while rival newcomers made their case to breeders over the rest of the year.

So it was quite something for just 32 named foals in his first crop to include three females as accomplished as champion Hidden Lake; Quiet Dance, later dam of one Horse of the Year in Saint Liam (Saint Ballado) and second dam of another in Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}); and Cara Rafaela.

Though her produce record was otherwise insipid, Cara Rafaela’s 2003 foal by A.P. Indy was a stunner. Unraced at two, Bernardini progressed quickly enough to join the Classic fray in the GI Preakness S., where his five-length success was tragically overshadowed by the Barbaro (Dynaformer) disaster. He secured due attention (and the sophomore championship) with processional wins in the GII Jim Dandy S., GI Travers S. and GI Jockey Club Gold Cup, by an aggregate of 23 lengths, though was foiled by Invasor (Arg) (Candy Stripes) when bowing out at the Breeders’ Cup.

Bernardini, then, went to stud with a good deal more fanfare than his own sire, having earned $3 million in a career spanning less than a year. He was launched at $100,000, and for a couple of years managed to get up to $150,000 after his opening crops featured the likes of To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty and Alpha (the latter pair both emulating his Travers success). With his stock often stamped with his physical beauty, he also punched his weight at the sales. In 2014, his Keeneland September average was behind just Tapit and War Front; and he has always been a big hitter at juvenile auctions.

To be fair, then, any recent decline is from the highest of standards–which he is certainly meeting, meanwhile, as a broodmare sire.

Now we know this to be a sector dominated by veteran, pensioned or deceased stallions; and Bernardini’s daughters only opened his graded stakes account in 2016. (For the record, through Dark Nile (Pioneerof the Nile) in the GIII Delaware Oaks). By 2018, however, he was adding to his Travers resume with Catholic Boy (More Than Ready). And last year, no fewer than five of his daughters assembled Grade I laurels via Serengeti Empress (Alternation), Wicked Whisper (Liam’s Map), Hunter O’Riley (Tiz Wonderful), Dunbar Road (Quality Road) and, as noted, Maxfield. Auspiciously, a couple of these qualify as the best performer by their respective sires.

I’m not sure that anyone knows quite what makes a great broodmare sire. Is there some kind of physiological inheritance, conceivably one as practical as helping the nursing foal to thrive? Or should we sooner seek, paradoxically, some typically ‘masculine’ traits of physical or mental toughness?

Whatever the reason, I am convinced that compounded, proven distaff influences represent a far better foundation for a pedigree than the supposed alchemies flimsily peddled between given sire-lines. As I’m always saying, all pedigrees are a mesh of genetic strands and the only reason I can see for picking out just two, as somehow over-riding the rest, is the credulous hunger for a “formula.” You are surely better off seeking quality across a pedigree, so that it barely matters which strand comes through. And there’s no better way of doing that than through the copper-bottomed distaff “brands.”

For one thing, you often find that good broodmare sires are out of mares by good broodmares sires. The sires of Urban Sea and Toussaud, for instance, are both out of Buckpasser mares.

And while entire sire-lines are always being credited with a character that seldom bears coherent explanation, broodmare power is one strength that does seem to repeat between generations.

So you get clusters like Princequillo; his daughter Somethingroyal; her sons Secretariat and Sir Gaylord; and the latter’s sons Sir Ivor, Habitat and Drone. Or the Deputy Minister dynasty: sons to extend his distaff influence include Dehere, Touch Gold and Awesome Again, whose son Ghostzapper has a growing reputation in this sphere.

Of course, many top broodmare sires are top sires, period, like Storm Cat. But it is striking how often this dimension of their legacy comes into a different type of focus, as when American Pharoah emerged from a Yankee Gentleman mare.

Bernardini’s flying start as a broodmare sire is a classic example of entwined influences. His sire A.P. Indy, whose recent obituaries celebrated his own record as a broodmare sire, is out of a storied mare, Weekend Surprise, who combined the ultimate distaff brands of the era: she was by Secretariat out of a Buckpasser mare whose own dam was by Secretariat’s half-brother Sir Gaylord.

As for Quiet American, he was famously not only by a son of a Dr Fager mare out of a Dr Fager mare; both these mares were also grand-daughters of Princequillo’s daughter Cequillo. For what it may be worth, moreover, Cara Rafaela traces to the matriarch Fast Line through one of her daughters by Princequillo’s son Prince John. (The other, incidentally, was dam of Northern Trick).

Lest we forget, of course, we are celebrating a revival in Bernardini’s primary role as a sire of runners. But if Art Collector earns a place at stud, you couldn’t be surprised if he, too, were to prove an effective broodmare sire.

We’ve seen that his first three dams are by a resonant trio: Distorted Humor, Private Account, Hoist The Flag. Private Account was out of a Buckpasser mare, like Weekend Surprise in the top half of Art Collector’s pedigree; while Hoist The Flag is by the excellent broodmare sire Tom Rolfe, just like the dam of Distorted Humor’s sire Forty Niner.

Overall this is a genetic “stairwell,” top to bottom, that barely misses a step in terms of Classic caliber. And a Derby colt is no less than his connections deserve. Colleague Bill Finley last week highlighted how patiently trainer Drury has paid his dues; while Art Collector’s owner-breeder has now exorcised a sad experience in the 2006 Blue Grass, when First Samurai (Giant’s Causeway)–a dual Grade I winner he owned in partnership–ended his career with a gate injury.

Perhaps the $100,000 required in 2016 to cover Distorted Legacy had begun to feel like a questionable investment, with Bernardini’s fee plunging in the meantime. But it’s looking good business now. Form is temporary, they say, and class permanent. In a business as uneven as this, any stallion can endure a bumpy spell.

Last Saturday also reiterated Bernardini’s ascendant stature as broodmare sire, through the latest success of Dunbar Road (GII Delaware H.). But in measuring him only against all those ageing or dead stallions, we run the risk of prematurely treating him as an old master. For anyone who pins their faith in beauty, class and genes, then, how wonderful to see Art Collector restore his sire to the avant garde.

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Bloodlines: Art Collector Preserves Greentree Stud Lineage

With a stylish 3 1/2-length victory over leading 3-year-old filly Swiss Skydiver in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on July 11, Art Collector has moved into a position as one of the leading classic prospects of 2020 and is unbeaten in three consecutive races.

Actually, the handsome bay has finished in front in each of his last four races, stretching back to a blowout victory in a Nov. 30 allowance at Churchill Downs. After winning by 7 1/2 lengths, however, Art Collector was subsequently disqualified for the presence of a prohibited substance.

Transferred to trainer Tom Drury after that, Art Collector has continued his march to excellence with allowance victories this season on May 17 and June 13 at Churchill Downs, then skipped down I-64 to test those very positive-looking results against graded stakes company at Keeneland.

Never farther back than third in the 13-horse field, Art Collector had the lead at the stretch call and widened away from his competition to win in 1:48.11. Swiss Skydiver held second by 4 3/4 lengths from Rushie, and the form rather emphatically places Art Collector in the hunt for Kentucky Derby in September.

Bred in Kentucky by Bruce Lunsford, Art Collector races for his breeder. In taking his fourth official victory from eight starts, Art Collector became the first stakes winner for his dam, the Distorted Humor mare Distorted Legacy. She won three races at three and four, including the Sky Beauty Stakes at Belmont, and more importantly, Distorted Legacy was also second in the G1 Flower Bowl.

Distorted Legacy is one of two stakes winners out of the Private Account mare Bunting, who was second in the G1 Alcibiades Stakes. This is a family that performed nobly for decades at Greentree Stud and that got its start in the States with the importation of the Prince Bio mare Bebop, a half-sister to Oaks winner Sun Cap (Sunny Boy). Bebop herself had been third in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

Bred to Greentree's Horse of the Year Tom Fool, Bebop's first foal was Bebopper, the first of eight consecutive fillies out of the dam, including stakes-placed Stepping High (No Robbery), the dam of multiple stakes winner and leading sire Buckaroo (Buckpasser). Bebopper did the most good for Greentree, however, with the major winners Stop the Music (Hail to Reason) and Hatchet Man (The Axe).

Stop the Music won the Dwyer and the Saratoga Special, then inherited the 1972 Champagne after Secretariat sort of intimidated him during the stretch run. Hatchet Man was later maturing than his half-brother but won the Dwyer at three, then also the G1 Widener and Haskell at five.

These were Bebopper's third and fourth foals; the mare's 11th foal was Flag Waver (Hoist the Flag), who won the 1983 Rampart Handicap at four and is the third dam of Art Collector. Flag Waver's first foal was stakes winner Abidjan (Sir Ivor) and her sixth was stakes-placed Bunting, the second dam of the Blue Grass winner.

Lunsford bought into this family with the acquisition of Bunting as a 3-year-old filly in training at the 1994 Keeneland November sale for $500,000. Bunting's first foal for Lunsford was the Storm Cat horse Vision and Verse. A rangy bay, Vision and Verse didn't win a lot of races but had a lot of class, winning the G2 Illinois Derby and finishing second in the G1 Belmont Stakes and Travers, third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The horse earned more than $1 million and went to stud in Kentucky at Hill 'n' Dale Farm.

Bunting had a trio of black-type daughters, and the best of these was Distorted Legacy. Her sire, Distorted Humor, threw some speed into this very classic family, and even so, the best distance for Distorted Legacy was 10 to 12 furlongs. In addition to a good second to Stacelita in the Flower Bowl at 10 furlongs, Distorted Legacy was fourth, beaten a length for the victory, in the Breeders' Cup Filly Turf.

So there should be little concern about Art Collector's ability to handle the 10 furlongs of the Derby, and this colt is following the well-worn path of improvement laid down by Horse of the Year A.P. Indy and so many of his descendants, with good to reasonable form late at two, then radically accelerating improvement at three.

This is a classic colt winning a classic prep in the proper style, and he appears to be a potential masterpiece for the owner, trainer, and family.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for July 14

Now 55 days out from the first Saturday in September, the GI Kentucky Derby totem pole continues to have an East-West hydra-like split at the top. But a Kentucky-based new shooter arrived on the scene over the weekend to add some spark and intrigue to the rankings. As the cadence quickens, the plot thickens.

1) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-5-0-1, $1,480,300.
Last Start: 1st GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 28, 1st GI Champagne S., 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 1, 3rd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 30
Next Start: GI Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 272.

Tiz the Law has been confidently carrying the burden of No. 1 favoritism since Mar. 11, and the 5-for-6 divisional kingpin arrived in Saratoga Monday morning in preparation for the GI Travers S. on Aug. 8. A win in the Midsummer Classic would mark one year to the date since this New York-bred broke his maiden at the Spa, and his only lifetime loss was a trip-troubled third in the slop at Churchill Downs last November. This $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt ended his juvenile season as an overachiever with a knack for finding tight spots and pockets of traffic while still managing to win. But at age three Tiz emerged as a stronger, faster, more tactically agile racehorse, and he’s been well tuned in his training, with a minor foot bruise back in February as the only several-day setback in his regimen. Partnering with jockey Manny Franco, this assertive stalker has learned how to put himself in position to apply pressure as a menacing presence just behind the leaders, and with five open-length victories by margins of at least three lengths Tiz has yet to hook up with anybody who can seriously run with him inside the eighth pole. In a year filled with COVID-19 concerns and asterisks because of all the changes to the Triple Crown schedule, Tiz the Law has remained a constant, shining presence, handling just about any challenge thrown his way.

2) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-2-0, $362,200.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby June 6. Accomplishments Include: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7.
Next Start: Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 120.

While Tiz the Law merits the No. 1 ranking based on his impressive overall resume, Honor A.P. looms as the sophomore whose untapped potential is the most tantalizing. This $850,000 FTSAUG ridgling’s GI Santa Anita Derby score on June 6 serves as the measuring stick for the California-based contenders because it was a 2 ¾-length, grind-’em-down victory notable for both Honor A.P.’s long reach and the ease with which he covered that ground. Trainer John Shirreffs has said repeatedly this first-crop son of Honor Code has the mental makeup to handle the rigors of a 20-horse Derby field, and the 1 1/16 miles Shared Belief S. at Del Mar Aug. 1 will be his final prep prior to Louisville. On Sunday, Honor A.P. worked seven furlongs in 1:29.20 (1/2) at Del Mar as part of a three-way team. He started about a length behind two maiden juvenile workmates and was asked to slip through at the rail, which he did without strenuous effort. Track clockers had Honor A.P. going from the five-furlong pole to the wire in 1:03.30, edging away from his overmatched mates before continuing on for another quarter-mile on his own.

3) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief—Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding & Golconda Stables. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 4-3-1-0, $411,200.
Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, June 5. Accomplishments Include: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7; 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 4.
Next Start: GI Haskell S., MTH, July 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100.

Authentic is New Jersey-bound after breezing a solo five-eighths in :59.80 (4/88) at Del Mar July 11 in prep for the GI Haskell S. on Saturday. He’ll be solidly favored based on the list of probables for Monmouth’s calling-card race, and one of the big questions for this $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is whether or not he wants (or needs to) transition into an effective stalker in order to maintain his spot in the overall pecking order. Authentic started his career 3-for-3, winning near the lead in a MSW sprint then wiring graded stakes fields in his first two route attempts. But in the Santa Anita Derby, this colt broke tardily and outward, then tried to press the pace while three wide on both turns. He ended up second behind No. 2-ranked Honor A.P., but likely gained more from that experience than is evident on paper. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Haskell eight times, and in aiming for a ninth he has worked Authentic no fewer than five times in the six-weeks span between races, including bullets at both a flat mile and six furlongs.

4) ART COLLECTOR (c, Bernardini—Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor)
O/B-Bruce Lunsford (KY). T-Thomas Drury Jr. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-4-1-0, $548,475.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100.

Art Collector cruised into the GII Blue Grass S. having crossed the wire first by open lengths in three straight races against allowance/optional claiming company. He soared out of Saturday’s Keeneland feature 3 1/2 lengths the best after a tenacious stretch duel that earned a 103 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest by any 3-year-old at a mile or longer this year. This athletic Bruce Lunsford homebred by Bernardini broke with the pacemakers, applied pressure from third behind dueling leaders, and when the favored filly Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) put away rail-running Shivaree (Awesome of Course), Art Collector gamely latched onto her and ratcheted up the pressure. From the quarter pole to the sixteenth pole both rivals dug in, but in the final half a furlong Art Collector torqued into another gear the leading GI Kentucky Oaks points-earner couldn’t match. The Keeneland mini-meet did produce fast times on both surfaces, and while Saturday’s dirt races were not outright dominated by speed (one wire winner, five pace-pressers, one midpack stalker), being in the hunt near the front did yield discernable advantages. The Aug. 9 Ellis Park Derby is a next-race possibility according to trainer Thomas Drury Jr., but another start before the Derby is not a requirement considering Art Collector has bankrolled 100 Derby qualifying points (tied for third).

5) KING GUILLERMO (c, Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
O-Victoria’s Ranch. B-Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments (KY). T-Juan Avila. Sales History: $90,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $340,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, May 2
Accomplishments Include: 3rd Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 1st
GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 90.

We’re approaching the seven-week mark to the Derby, and already King Guillermo is shaping up as the most intriguing under-the-radar contender despite his high ranking on this list. In an already unconventional season because of the coronavirus, his connections are taking an even more unusual prep path to the Derby, with a projected 127-day gap between starts. This second-deadline (June 3) Triple Crown nominee owns only two tries against graded stakes company, but both were crackerjack efforts. This Uncle Mo bay ($90,000 RNA at KEESEP; $150,000 OBSAPR) forced the issue on the front end at 49-1 odds to win the third-fastest GII Tampa Bay Derby in the race’s 40 runnings, then he ran a tenacious second in the stronger/faster division of the split GI Arkansas Derby. After some down time on a Florida farm, he got back to business July 4 with a bullet (1/118) :47.11 half-mile breeze at Gulfstream. On July 11, he was clocked over the same distance in :48.03 (8/101). Trainer Juan Carlos Avila posted on Twitter afterward that the King came out of his work in “excellent” shape, with a five-furlong work planned for this coming Saturday.

6) UNCLE CHUCK (c, Uncle Mo—Forest Music, by Unbridled’s Song)
O-Karl Watson, Michael E. Pegram & Paul Weitman. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $250,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $120,000.
Last Start: 1st GIII Los Alamitos Derby, LRC, July 4
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Uncle Chuck’s adept dismantling of the four-horse GIII Los Alamitos Derby July 4 pairs up nicely with his seven-length maiden romp back on June 12. In his maiden win over a mile, this $250,000 KEESEP Uncle Mo colt wired the field after breaking a step slowly. Stepping up to stakes company at Los Al, Uncle Chuck broke alertly, was rated wide into the first turn, settled comfortably on the backstretch, then took dead aim at the leader, blowing by as he pleased. Roused for the stretch run–at 1,380 feet, the longest in North America–Uncle Chuck had plenty left, gamely swatting away a fresh challenge from stablemate Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), a sophomore who was once so highly regarded that he spent the bulk of last winter atop this Top 12 list. Hand-ridden in the final stages, Uncle Chuck scored by four decisive lengths. This colt boasts speed and precocity on the bottom side of his pedigree and two-turn potency up top. For a more detailed dissection of Uncle Chuck’s family line, see colleague Chris McGrath’s deep-dive analysis from last week.

7) SHARED SENSE (c, Street Sense–Collective, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin LLC (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-3-2-0, $322,112.
Last Start: 1st GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Shared Sense emerged as a late arrival on the Derby scene with his off-the-pace, track-record (.17 seconds off the old mark) score in last Wednesday’s GIII Indiana Derby, which for the first time was carded at nine furlongs. His stock inched upward again on Saturday thanks to a company-line boost from three-peat winner Art Collector, who came back out of their 1-2 finish in a June 13 Churchill Downs allowance to annex the Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. The Indiana Grand win by this homebred for Godolphin wasn’t so much a “Wow!” performance, but it underscored that this is a sophomore going the right way on the progression arc with more than a few hints at distance ability lodged within his pedigree (Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare). “He’s a tough horse,” trainer Brad Cox said, “On the dry dirt, that’s where he gets his best races. I tried him on the grass. His physical makeup, how he travels, I thought he might like the grass. He didn’t really go for it. And his last race at Churchill was a really good race. That race didn’t set up at all for him and he ran a big race. He’s just a horse I think will get better with distance and race.”

8) DR POST (c, Quality Road—Mary Delaney, by Hennessy)
O-St. Elias Stable. B-Cloyce C. Clark (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $200,000 wlg ’18 KEESEP; $400,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 4-2-1-0, $261,635.
Last Start: 2nd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st Unbridled S., GP, Apr. 25
Next Start: GI Haskell S., MTH, July 18
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

Dr Post, the Belmont S. runner-up, now has two four-furlong breezes under his belt since his graded stakes debut, and last week was deemed a “likely” Haskell S. starter by trainer Todd Pletcher (entries Wednesday). If you discount his career debut, when this Quality Road colt bobbled at the break at 1-2 odds and ran fourth in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, Dr. Post has paired back-to-back wins at Gulfstream over seven furlongs and 1 1/16 miles with his nine-furlong second behind the No. 1-ranked sophomore in the land. Although this $400,000 KEESEP and $200,000 KEENOV colt was not in the same league as Tiz the Law on June 20, Dr Post did win the “race within the race,” finishing ahead of some fairly accomplished contenders. If noted speedsters Authentic and Ete Indien (Summer Front) both show up for the Haskell and go too fast to last, Dr Post will be primed to pounce.

9) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
10-2-2-2, $367,150.
Last Start: 4th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 18; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, Oct. 5, 2nd GII Risen Star S. Div. 1, FG, Feb. 15.
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 43.

True to form, Enforceable ($775,000 KEESEP RNA) took the overland route home in the Blue Grass S., rallying from tenth to get necked in a photo for third while never threatening Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver, who were 8 1/4 lengths clear of the pack. “He ran well,” trainer Mark Casse said post-race. “I don’t think there is any secret out there that there has been a pretty good speed bias and we had to run against it. We ended up fairly wide turning for home and it probably cost us third. But I just wanted a positive race and him finishing. I talked to Mr. [owner John] Oxley beforehand and told him we don’t have to win, we just want a good race. Now what we want is for him to come out of this race and do well and we’ll figure out one more. I was proud of him [Saturday]. He broke well, and that’s something we worked hard on because he hadn’t been breaking very well. It was a real positive race.”

10) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-1, $323,310.
Last Start: 6th GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 8, 1st Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 2nd GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 7.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

Sole Volante, a light-bodied stayer with a grass-on-grass pedigree (Karakontie {Jpn} out of a Kingmambo mare), figures to be a forgotten horse on the Derby trail after his no-punch sixth in the Belmont S. He reportedly didn’t like the track that day according to trainer Patrick Biancone, and no next-race plans have been publicly announced. But still, if this $6,000 KEESEP and $20,000 OBSAPR gelding ends up in the Derby, the prospect of a hot pace coupled with his smooth way of going and keen mind make him one of those dark-horse outsiders who figures as a logical long shot.

11) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Linda Rice. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $273,500.
Last Start: 3rd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 1
Next Start: GI Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Trainer Linda Rice said last week that after considering either Thursday’s GIII Peter Pan at Saratoga or Saturday’s Haskell at Monmouth, Max Player is instead going to wait another three weeks and “point right to the Travers.” This Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) gained a foothold within the Top 12 after a “best of the rest” third in the Belmont S. At 14-1 odds, Max was no true threat to Tiz the Law, but his performance has to be viewed through the prism coming off of a 4 1/2-month layoff (primarily due to pandemic postponements). Max broke his maiden in start number two at Parx, then stretched capably to nine furlongs in the Feb. 1 GIII Withers, pressuring a tiring favored pacemaker into submission through moderate fractions. Rice has described this colt as a slow but steady learner, and if he can build that Belmont third into a breakthrough Travers performance, he could blossom into a “live” horse for the first Saturday in September.

12) CEZANNE (c, Curlin—Achieving, by Bernardini)
O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith & St Elias Stable. B-Hill ‘n’ Dale Equine Holdings Inc & St Elias Stables LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $3,650,000 2yo ’19 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,000.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Optional Claiming, LRC, July 2.
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Cezanne advanced his record to 2-for-2 with a July 2 first-level allowance/optional claiming score over a mile at Los Alamitos. But considering this $3.65 million FTFMAR sales topper was 1-to-10 in the betting against only four rivals, he did not deliver an emphatic enough performance to retain his previous No. 8 placement. He stalked in third, quickened when cued to go after his stablemate entering the far turn, then passed that rival five-sixteenths out. Through the stretch, Cezanne had to be kept to task under both right- and left-handed stick work, and he could not decisively put away the longest shot on the board, a pesky closer who had required 10 starts to break his maiden for a $50,000 tag. The winning margin was an eroding 1 3/4 lengths (85 Beyer). By contrast, this Curlin bay’s debut was much more visually impressive: In that June 6 sprint, Cezanne fought all the way amid a four-way go, then dug in and opened up to win without being fully extended (90 Beyer).

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