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Equibase Analysis: Pneumatic, Art Collector Both Poised To Upset Preakness Stakes

Overview: Kentucky Derby upset winner Authentic returns in the Grade 1, $1 million Preakness Stakes, with Derby third place finisher Mr. Big News trying to improve his finish, as well as Max Player and Ny Traffic who finished fifth and eighth, respectively, in the race. Two horses that were expected to run in the Derby but did not, Art Collector and Thousand Words, appear to be legitimate challengers to the likely betting favorite. Art Collector won both the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby before a minor issue resulted in him passing the Derby. Thousand Words, who won the Shared Belief Stakes in August, briefly fell in the paddock before the Derby and had to withdraw. Other new shooters include the filly Swiss Skydiver, runner-up in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last month. Another potential contender is Pneumatic, winner of the Pegasus Stakes in August. Liveyourbeastlife was competitive at the level when second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes the first weekend of September, with Jesus' Team close behind in third in that race. Excession hasn't been seen since March but appears to fit as well off his second place finish in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent start. However, that race was more than six months ago.

Contender analysis: In spite of Authentic winning the Kentucky Derby rather easily and gamely by a length and three-quarters, I think an upset is brewing and the horse which is capable of that upset is Pneumatic. In recent history, the Derby winner has won four of the last 10 editions of the Preakness when they have run in the race. However, that means there have been six occasions the Derby winner has been beaten. I'll take those odds, particularly this year where the number of horses who didn't run in the Derby appear to be every bit as fast as the Derby winner. Pneumatic is the most lightly raced horse in the Preakness field and I think that gives him an edge.

Starting his career in February, Pneumatic won first out in a sprint and has continued to improve, mature, and run faster in each race since then. After stretching out to a mile in his second start in April, Pneumatic improved again when third in the Matt Winn Stakes and even when fourth in the Belmont Stakes in June took another step forward. His pattern of Equibase Speed Figures from his debut through the Belmont (90, 96, 98, 101) denotes a 3-year-old getting physically and mentally stronger with each and every race. Then, in the Pegasus Stakes in mid-August, Pneumatic took a drastic step forward to earn a 113 figure. Putting that figure in perspective, Authentic earned a 109 figure in the Derby while Swiss Skydiver earned the same 109 figure when runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks. Thousand Words' 107 figure in the Shared Belief and the 104 figure Art Collector earned in the Ellis Park Derby were both lower as compared to Pneumatic. Then there's the matter of this mile and three-sixteenths distance. Aside from the fact Swiss Skydiver won the Alabama Stakes and Authentic won the Kentucky Derby at the distance of one mile and one-quarter, no other horse has won at the distance. However, Pneumatic is by Uncle Mo, and per STATS Race Lens Uncle Mo has sired the most stakes race winners at distances from nine and one-half to 10 furlongs compared to all the other sires of Preakness entrants. Trained by North American leading trainer Steve Asmussen, who won the Preakness in 2007 (Curlin) and in 2009 (Rachel Alexandra), if Pneumatic continues to improve as it appears he should, he could win the Preakness at high odds.

Art Collector, who was likely to be the second betting choice behind Tiz the Law in the Derby, did not enter the race when sustaining a mild injury to his heel prior to the race. That might have been the best thing to happen to this immensely talented colt, as he's come back to put in three superb workouts. This suggests Art Collector is in the same top form he has demonstrated since returning from five and one-half months off in May and winning four straight races. After a dominant victory in the Blue Grass Stakes in July with a 102 figure, he ran even better in the Ellis Park Derby with a 104 figure. In both those races, Art Collector was drawing off at the end, suggesting he's a horse which should have no issues with the added sixteenth of a mile in the Preakness. Having the ability to win on the lead or from off the pace, Art Collector is likely to be in the thick of the action in the Preakness from the start and right down to the finish line.

Authentic has been nearly perfect in his career, winning five times and finishing second once. After taking the Haskell Stakes with a career-best 109 figure in July at one mile and one-eighth, Authentic repeated the effort with the same figure in the Derby while leading from start to finish. Considering his last four wins have been earned when leading from start to finish, there is some concern as to what will happen if other horses decide to contest him for the lead. Stablemate Thousand Words (also trained by Bob Baffert) led from start to finish in the Shared Belief Stakes last month and might try to battle for the lead in spite of Baffert's strategy to the contrary, particularly since he is adding blinkers. Art Collector, Ny Traffic and Swiss Skydiver could all be hot on Authentic's heels from the start as well. Still, his Derby effort was very good and any improvement off that race could make him a formidable opponent in the Preakness.

Swiss Skydiver will try to repeat the feat of another filly, Rachel Alexandra, who won the Preakness in 2009 after competing in the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra won the Oaks, while Swiss Skydiver finished second in the race this year, but Swiss Skydiver ran the best race of her career in doing so, earning the same 109 figure Authentic did one day later winning the Derby. Prior to that, Swiss Skydiver won the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes in handy fashion and it's possible the return of a 19 day layoff may have been too quick of a turnaround. Rested four weeks this time, Swiss Skydiver has come back to put in two very strong workouts and I expect the filly to be very competitive in this race.

The rest of the Preakness Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures is Excession (100), Jesus' Team (109), Liveyourbeastlife (107), Mr. Big News (105), Max Player (105), Ny Traffic (109) and Thousand Words (107).

Win contenders:
Pneumatic
Art Collector
Swiss Skydiver
Authentic

Preakness Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Pimlico
Saturday, Oct. 3 – Post Time 5:36 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
For 3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1 Million
TV: NBC 4:30 – 6 PM ET

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Pimlico on Preakness Stakes Day – Saturday, Oct. 3 at Equibase.com, TrackMaster.com and most online wagering sites.

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Drury: Art Collector’s Versatile Style Will Be A Major Advantage In Preakness Stakes

Tommy Drury didn't get much sleep on Monday night of Kentucky Derby week. The trainer of one of the top Derby contenders, Art Collector, had found a decent-sized cut on the back of the colt's right front hoof, apparently suffered during his Monday morning gallop.

Drury and owner/breeder Bruce Lunsford faced a difficult decision. The colt's hoof was sensitive to the touch, and neither man wanted to subject the horse to the stress of the Run for the Roses unless he was 100 percent. Still, it would have been the first starter in the Kentucky Derby for both Drury and Lunsford, and making the decision to walk away from what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity was challenging.

“It was certainly difficult,” Drury said on an NTRA teleconference this Monday. “The Derby is a race of a lifetime for a horse trainer. At end of day, the responsibility we have is to put the horse first. It would not have been fair to lead him over there knowing there was an issue going on. It was a no-brainer. We want our horse to be good for the long haul, not just one race.”

Instead, Art Collector will be the 5-2 second choice in this Saturday's Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. He'll face a field of 11, including Kentucky Derby winner Authentic (9-5 favorite) and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Swiss Skydiver (6-1).

Art Collector, a 3-year-old son of Bernardini, won the G2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in July. He stalked the pace in that race, then won the Ellis Park Derby with a solid frontrunning display. That versatility in tactics gives Drury a bit of confidence heading into the Preakness Stakes.

“He has a little stop and go to him,” Drury explained, adding that jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. is very familiar with Art Collector's style. “You can use him and get him going again if you need to. In a race like this, that can be beneficial.”

The post position, three, won't be an issue for Art Collector either, Drury said. The colt is quick enough to get out of the gate and near the lead, and tactical enough for Hernandez to be able to take back off the pace if others decide to go.

No matter what happens this Saturday, Drury is looking forward to the future with Art Collector. This year, the Breeders' Cup Classic is the likely next stop on the colt's schedule, and Drury will also look for Art Collector to return as a 4-year-old.

“Art Collector is a very special horse to us,” summarized Drury. “He has taken my career to places I've never dreamed it would go. I've not had anything like him ever before.”

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Authentic Draws Nine for Preakness

GI Kentucky Derby hero Authentic (Into Mischief) was assigned gate nine in a field of 11 and was installed the 9-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday’ GI Preakness S. at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

John Velazquez has the return call on Authentic, who goes for a third consecutive victory at the Grade I level, having beaten Ny Traffic (Cross Traffic) in the GI TVG.com Haskell S. before defying those who concluded he would not stay the 10 furlongs of the Derby by outfighting heavily favored Tiz the Law (Constitution) beneath the Twin Spires Sept. 5. The Sackatoga runner was removed from Preakness consideration last week and will instead train up to the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland Nov. 7.

Authentic is one of two Preakness starters for Bob Baffert, who can become the winningest trainer in Preakness history (currently tied with R. Wyndham Walden on seven winners) with a victory from Authentic or Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile). The $1-million Keeneland September was to represent Spendthrift and Albaugh Family Stable in the Run for the Roses, but was scratched after flipping in the paddock while being saddled. Thousand Words carries Florent Geroux and breaks from gate five as a 6-1 chance.

Art Collector (Bernardini) was no worse than the second betting selection for the Derby, but he, too, was withdrawn from the second leg of this year’s Triple Crown with a minor foot ailment. He has trained well since for trainer Tommy Drury, Jr., and was made the 5-2 second favorite for Saturday’s race. Brian Hernandez, Jr. should have the Bruce Lunsford runner close from the three hole.

After some deliberation, trainer Ken McPeek has opted for a Preakness run for his crack filly Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil), who exits a game runner-up effort in the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks Sept. 4. The Preakness marks her second start against the boys, as she led into the final furlong of the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland July 12 before being run down by Art Collector. Robby Albarado takes the reins on the 6-1 gamble from gate four.

Saturday, Pimlico Race Course

PREAKNESS S.-GI, $1,000,000, 3yo, 1 3/16m

1 Excession (Union Rags), Russell, Asmussen, 30-1

2 Mr. Big News (Giant’s Causeway), Saez, Calhoun, 12-1

3 Art Collector (Bernardini), Hernandez Jr., Drury, Jr, 5-2

4 Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil), Albarado, McPeek, 6-1

5 Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile), Geroux, Baffert, 6-1

6 Jesus’ Team (Tapiture), Toledo, D’Angelo, 30-1

7 Ny Traffic (Cross Traffic), Joseph Jr., Karamanos, 15-1

8 Max Player (Honor Code), Lopez, Asmussen, 15-1

9 Authentic (Into Mischief), Velazquez, Baffert, 9-5

10 Pneumatic (Uncle Mo), Bravo, Asmussen, 20-1

11 Liveyourbeastlife (Ghostzapper), McCarthy, Abreu, 30-1

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Authentic Draws Post Nine; 11 Entered In 2020 Preakness Stakes

Kentucky Derby winner Authentic will be the 9-5 morning-line favorite in Saturday's Grade 1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, and drew post nine of 11 in the 1 3/16-mile contest. Hall of Famers John Velazquez and Bob Baffert will team up again to try to win two of three legs of this unique 2020 edition of the Triple Crown.

Second choice on the morning line at 5-2 will be Blue Grass Stakes winner Art Collector, who missed the Kentucky Derby with a minor cut to his hoof suffered on Monday of Derby week. The talented colt is fully healed, according to trainer Tommy Drury, and will break from post position three under regular jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Trainer Ken McPeek will send out the Kentucky Oaks runner-up Swiss Skydiver from post position four in the Preakness Stakes, and the filly will get a new pilot in jockey Robby Albarado. She was tabbed at 6-1 on the morning line.

Baffert will also enter Kentucky Derby late scratch Thousand Words, who flipped over in the paddock and broke the wrist of assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes. The difficult colt will be ridden by Florent Geroux from post position five, and is 6-1 on the morning line.

Kentucky Derby runner-up Tiz the Law decided to skip the Preakness, but third-place finisher Mr. Big News will enter the classic for trainer Bret Calhoun. The late-running colt will break from post two and is 12-1 on the morning line.

Additionally, trainer Steve Asmussen will send out three entrants in the 2020 Preakness Stakes: Excession (Post 1, 30-1), Max Player (Post 8, 15-1), and Pnuematic (Post 10, 20-1).

The full field, with jockey, trainer, and morning-line odds, is as follows:

Excession – Sheldon Russell – Steve Asmussen (30-1)
Mr. Big News – Gabriel Saez – Bret Calhoun (12-1)
Art Collector – Brian Hernandez, Jr. – Tommy Drury (5-2)
Swiss Skydiver – Robby Albarado – Ken McPeek (6-1)
Thousand Words – Florent Geroux – Bob Baffert (6-1)
Jesus' Team – Jevian Toldeo – Jose D'Angelo (30-1)
Ny Traffic – Horacio Karamanos – Saffie Joseph, Jr. (15-1)
Max Player – Paco Lopez – Steve Asmussen (15-1)
Authentic – John Velazquez – Bob Baffert (9-5)
Pneumatic – Joe Bravo – Steve Asmussen (20-1)
Liveyourbeastlife – Trevor McCarthy – Jorge Abreu (30-1)

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