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Sunday Racing Insights: Arrogate Filly Debuts for Bridlewood

Sponsored by Alex Nichols Agency

3rd-GP, $50K, MSW, 3yo/up, f, 1 1/16mT, 2:09 p.m.

From the first crop of the late champion Arrogate, USURPED debuts Sunday for trainer Brendan Walsh and owner/breeder Bridlewood Farm. The 3-year-old filly is out of the El Corredor mare Concinnous, making her a half-sister to millionaire & MGISW Iotapa (Afleet Alex), who sold for $2.8 million to the China Horse Club at the 2014 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Usurped is also a half-sister to GSP Saintly Joan (Northern Afleet), a $625,000 purchase at the same sale the following year. Her most recent work, a four-furlong move from the gate at Palm Meadows in :48 2/5 Apr. 8 (3/14), was on dirt, but she displays a pair of turf breezes there in her two prior efforts. TJCIS PPs

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The TDN Kentucky Oaks Rankings for Apr. 14

With the GI Ashland S., the GII Santa Anita Oaks and the GIII Gazelle S. topping last week's action, all the preps have been run and the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks is all but set. Who will be the favorite? Who is the filly to beat? In a year where the division is overrun with quality, those aren't easy questions to answer. It should be a heck of a race.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-4-0-2, $590,167. Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby. Kentucky Oaks Points: 60. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 6.

The big news in the Secret Oath camp is that the connections have decided to replace jockey Luis Contreras with Luis Saez. Trainer Wayne Lukas had told the TDN that Contreras would keep the mount for the Oaks, so, apparently, someone had a change of mind. The move is hardly a surprise. Contreras, a regular at Woodbine, is a capable rider but he's not in the class of Saez, who is a rare talent. The guess is that Secret Oath will be the favorite. She's coming off a very good effort against males in the GI Arkansas Derby and, because of Lukas, the 86-year-old icon trying to win another Kentucky Oaks, she will dominate the storylines coming into the race. Her sire Arrogate passed away at age seven in 2020. Win or lose in the Oaks, she figures to go down as the best horse produced by her ill-fated sire.

2) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $379,730. Last Start: 1st GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 150. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Maybe she will be the favorite. Considering what she has accomplished, that wouldn't be a surprise. She's four-for-four in her career and gives every indication that she has yet to reach her peak. She represents a perfect example of why trainer Shug McGaughey is in the Hall of Fame. He's a master when it comes to developing horses and getting them to peak on the big day. Starting with her debut, a maiden win at Aqueduct Nov. 12, she has gotten better with every start. This year, she has reeled off three straight wins at Gulfstream, a surface that doesn't fit her come-from-behind style. It's been 29 years since McGaughey last won the Oaks, which he pulled off in 1993 with Dispute. It is his only win in the race.

3) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $623,050. Last Start: 1st GI Central Bank Ashland S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 120. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Todd Pletcher won the 2021 Kentucky Oaks with a daughter of Curlin, Malathaat. He will try to do so again with another daughter of Curlin in Nest. Nest could possibly be better than Eclipse Award winner Malathaat. That's how impressive she was when winning the Ashland. After winning the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs in her 3-year-old debut, she faced much stiffer competition in the Ashland, but made it look easy. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., she drew off in the stretch to win by 8 1/4 lengths. “She looked like a star yesterday,” Pletcher said the morning after the Ashland. “You never expect to win by 8 1/4 lengths, but we felt good about the way she was coming into the race.” Mike Repole is one of her owners. He has spent millions at the sales trying to find superstar colts, but doesn't normally go after many fillies. This one was bought at Keeneland September for $350,000, which looks like a bargain. In most any other year, she'd be the solid favorite in the Oaks. This year, she could be third or fourth choice.

4) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. KY Oaks Points: 130. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Could Gun Runner, who got off to a sizzling start as a sire, win both the Oaks and the GI Kentucky Derby? With Echo Zulu and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba (Gun Runner), it's entirely possible. She's undefeated and the reigning 2-year-old filly champion, so maybe she deserves to be ranked higher than fourth. But this corner was not enamored with her 3-year-old debut, a nose victory in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks in which she earned the slowest Beyer in her career. She's going to have to run better to win the Kentucky Oaks. Then again, maybe the cagey Steve Asmussen didn't have her at 100%, knowing that the Kentucky Oaks was the real goal? It's a tough call.

5) NOSTALGIC (Medaglia d'Oro–Been Here Before, by Tapit) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $235,400. Last Start: 1st GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 101. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's was on the list, off the list and now makes it into the Top 5 with her win Saturday at Aqueduct in the Gazelle. She's had an up-and-down career so far. After finishing fourth in last year's GII Demoiselle S., one of the biggest key races of 2021, she went to the grass, where she was ninth and last in the GIII Sweetest Chant S. at Gulfstream. Trainer Bill Mott sent her back to dirt and she bounced right back with a 6 3/4-length win in a Gulfstream allowance race. She earned her ticket to the Oaks with a 1 1/4-length win in the Gazelle over 11-10 favorite Venti Valentine (Firing Line). Owned by Godolphin, by Medaglia d'Oro out of the Been Here Before, she's certainly got the pedigree to be a star. Mott has never won the Kentucky Oaks.

6) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-0, $256,600. Last Start: 2nd GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Among the top names headed for the Oaks, Adare Manor became the first to stub her toe when she finished second as the 7-10 favorite in the Santa Anita Oaks for new trainer Tim Yakteen. It was her first race since winning the GIII Las Virgenes S. and perhaps Yakteen, who took over for Bob Baffert, was trying to save something for Kentucky. Nonetheless, this was a race she was not supposed to lose, even if the margin of victory was just a neck. She was dominant when winning the Las Virgenes by 13 lengths, earning a 94 Beyer figure. If she can run back to that race she'd have a chance in the Oaks. But will she? Maybe she peaked too early.

7) HIDDEN CONNECTION (Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again) O-Hidden Brook Farm & Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $49,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $399,525. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 57. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's had one start at Churchill Downs and the result was a 9 1/4-length win in the GIII Pocahontas S. It was the best race of her life. So you know that she will handle the track. And she's going to have to run back to that race to have any chance. She's gone 0-for-3 since and is 0-2 on the year. However, she made a forward move last out when battling Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks to lose by just a nose. Her jockey, Reylu Gutierrez, looks like a rising star after winning 51 races at the Fair Grounds meet.

8) VENTI VALENTINE (Firing Line–Glory Gold, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-NY Final Furlong Racing Stable & Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Final Furlong Racing Stable & Maspeth Stable (NY); T-Jorge Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & MGSP, 5-3-2-0, $416,250. Last Start: 2nd GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 94. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

At odds of 11-10, she was the beaten favorite in the Gazelle. It was far from a bad race. She was second, losing by just 1 1/4 lengths, and got beat by a potential star in Nostalgic. But, at the same time, she had no excuse and the race showed that she belongs in the second tier when it comes to Kentucky Oaks runners. A good horse, but she'll be 40-1 or thereabouts at Churchill. Could clean up against New York-breds, but she deserves a shot in the Kentucky Oaks.

9) YUUGIRI (Shackleford–Yuzuru, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Sekie Yoshihara & Tsunebumi Yoshihara (KY); T-Rodolphe Brisset. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $543,610. Last Start: 1st GIII Fantasy S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 114. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Yuugiri is owned and was bred by Sekie Yoshihara and Tsunebumi Yoshihara, who live in Japan. She is trained by Rodolphe Brisset. She punched her ticket to the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn, but that race, once Secret Oath opted for the Arkansas Derby, did not come up particularly strong. A better test may have been the GIII Honeybee S., where Secret Oaks trounced her by 9 1/4 lengths. The Oaks will be her fourth start at Churchill Downs. She broke her maiden there in September and then ran second in the Rags to Riches S. and second in the GII Golden Rod S. Another good horse who will be a big long shot in what is a loaded race.

10) Desert Dawn (Cupid–Ashley's Glory, by Honour and Glory) O/B-H and E Ranch, Inc. (AZ); T-Philip D'Amato. Sales history: $32,000 RNA yrl '20 OBSOCT. Lifetime Record: 7-2-0-2, $378,400. Last Start: 1st GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 108. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Can an Arizona-bred win the Kentucky Oaks? She'll give it a shot. Was bred by and is owned by Elena and Hollis Crim of H & E Ranch, a 400-acre spread in Globe, Arizona. Normally, the winner of the Santa Anita Oaks would be among the top choices in the Kentucky Oaks, but that won't be the case with this one. She was the longest shot in the field of five at 14-1 and had been off the board in her three prior starts. That includes a sixth-place finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was beaten by 18 3/4 lengths. Ran a career best race at Santa Anita, but that probably won't be enough.

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Sunday’s Insights: Hall of Famer-Trained Maidens in at Gulfstream

Sponsored by Alex Nichols Agency

7th-GP, $60K, Msw, 3yo, 7f, 4:07 p.m. ET
A trio of Hall of Fame barns send out five of the eight entrants in this elongated sprint. Todd Pletcher saddles Repole Stable and St Elias Stable's $560,000 KEESEP buy Gate Runner (Arrogate). Out of stakes-placed turf router Nerfertiti (Speightstown), he's half to MGSW dirt sprinter Engage (Into Mischief). Second dam Clearly a Queen (Lucky North) was a hard-knocking MGSW on the lawn. Pletcher will also be represented by Days of Yore (Street Sense), who appears to have been purchased privately from breeder Shadwell Farm by Waterford Stable.

Seventh timer Logico (Violence) hails for a different barn, but could provide further insight into another runner of Pletcher, Repole and Viola's–he was second with a career-best Beyer figure last out behind good-looking debut scorer Bright Future (Curlin).

Bill Mott's two-pronged attack includes newcomer Broken Spur (American Pharoah). The Mike Rutherford homebred ($275,000 KEESEP RNA) is the first foal out of SW/GSP Stageplay (Curlin), who took her own debut going 6 1/2 panels at two. Stakes-winning second dam Stage Stop (Valid Expectations) also produced a GSW juvenile and 2013 GI Preakness S. third Mylute (Midnight Lute).

Mott's other runner is OXO Equine's $675,000 KEESEP buy Mendenhall (Pioneerof the Nile), who missed the break and checked in seventh over track and trip Mar. 5. He has fired two bullets in the interim, including one from the gate. The dark bay is out of 2012 GII Fantasy S. winner and $1.2-million FTKNOV seller Mamma Kimbo (Discreet Cat), whose previous foals include SWs Balandeen (Bernardini) and Matwakel (California Chrome).

Shug McGaughey gets in on the action with Stuart Janney III homebred Breakwater (Flatter). The bay, who has alternated between dirt works and ones on the grass–which might ultimately proof his preferred surface–is out of he connections' 2009 GIII Violet S. winner Quiet Harbor (Silver Deputy), who is a half to GSWs Ironicus (Distorted Humor), On Leave (War Front), Norumbega (Tiznow) and Hunting (Coronado's Quest). TJCIS PPs

9th-GP, $43K, MOC ($50K), 3yo, 7 1/2fT, 5:10 p.m. ET
Live Oak Plantation and conditioner Mark Casse take advantage of Great Uncle (Uncle Mo)'s Florida-bred status as he takes on a softer bunch on debut without being risked for the tag. The rail-drawn bay is out Zo Impressive (Hard Spun), who won her first two starts over the local main track before finishing second in the 2012 GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. She reached the highest level in the GI Mother Goose S. at Belmont two starts later and has already produced MGSW Souper Tapit (Tapit). Zo Impressive is a daughter of GISW Zoftig (Cozzene) and half to big-figure earning GI Acorn S. heroine Zaftig (Gone West), who in turn has produced SW/MGSP Spinoff (Hard Spun) and SP Rugbyman (Tapit). Live Oak purchased Zoftig, while she was carrying Zo Impressive, for $1.5 million at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton November sale. She was later sold for $1.1 million back in foal to Hard Spun at KEENOV '13.

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Derby Fever Starting to Take Hold in Lukas Camp

Though Secret Oath (Arrogate) will meet males Saturday in the GI Arkansas Derby, Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas has been saying all along that the main goal for her remains the GI Kentucky Oaks. That's starting to change.

“First of all, we have to assume she is going to run a top race in the Arkansas Derby,” Lukas said. “(Owner-breeder) Rob Mitchell and I were talking three weeks ago and he said he wanted to go in the Oaks. Since then, he's brought up the Derby two or three times. I think it's a 50-50 proposition. That Derby Fever runs deep. I'll do whatever they want.”

Lukas understands that there is nothing like running a horse in the Kentucky Derby, especially a top contender. Even a race as prestigious as the Kentucky Oaks doesn't compare.

“I've been there and done that,” he said. “I've had all the thrills. I've sang 'My Old Kentucky Home.' I've had the experience a number of times. I want to give the Mitchells that experience. I want them to do whatever they want to do. If they say we want to run in the Derby that's what we will do. Whatever way they lean, I will endorse it 100% and try to make it work.”

Lukas and Mitchell, who owns Secret Oath along with his wife Stacy, have laid the groundwork for a possible Derby start. Had they opted instead to run against 3-year-old fillies the same day in the GIII Fantasy S., they would not have been able to accrue any points for the Derby. After Secret Oath romped in the GIII Honeybee S., winning her third straight, the decision was made to test the water in the Arkansas Derby. On paper, it looks like a smart move. The males lining up for the race are not a particularly strong group and Secret Oath has been made the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Secret Oath is the only horse in the race to have run a Beyer figure in the nineties.

“There was a lot of discussion that went into this,” Lukas said. “The Fantasy, believe it or not, is a Grade III. Rob and Stacy Mitchell thought that if we were going to go for a Grade I, maybe this was the spot to try it. They think we are competitive with the colts, which we probably are. Secondly, it's $1.25 million for the Arkansas Derby versus $600,000 for the Fantasy. I let them make the decision. I told them their filly was in top shape right now and I had led them over there against the colts before and I would do it again with great confidence. But the Grade III versus the Grade I was the main thing that pushed us in that direction.”

More so than any other trainer in the sport, Lukas knows what buttons to push when it comes to running fillies against colts. He won the Kentucky Derby in 1988 with the filly Winning Colors, one of only three fillies to win the race, and he won the 1984 Arkansas Derby with the filly Althea. She came back to run 19th in the Derby. He's won Grade I stakes races against males with Lady's Secret and Serena's Song.

“We are so tradition bound in Thoroughbred racing,” he said. “Nobody changes anything. I came along in the seventies and we made some changes and we were criticized for it. Even for the white bridles. Tradition is real strong, even with the younger guys. But, with a filly, if you have the fastest horse, you're in the right situation, the horse is doing the best they can possibly be doing and you can analyze the field and say, 'look, we are as good as they are,' I have no problem leading them over there. The Kentucky Derby is a career-making race.”

Appearing on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, jockey Gary Stevens, who rode Winning Colors, said that Secret Oath might be better than the Hall of Fame filly. Lukas isn't ready to go there yet, but he has a ton of confidence in Secret Oath.

“She breaks their heart when she runs by horses,” he said. “She'll clock them for a little while, and then when Luis Contreras let's her go, she has an acceleration that is really special. Winning Colors has done a lot more. But she could be that type. I don't know if I'd rate her as high as Winning Colors just yet. But when we get a little further down the base paths, she could turn out to be that good.”

Throughout his career, Lukas has been the eternal optimist. But even he probably never thought he might get back to the Derby at age 86. He has not won the race since 1999 with Charismatic, and his last Derby starter was Bravazo (Awesome Again) in 2018.

“My wife tells me every day, boy, with the way that filly has been running, it has really picked your head up,” Lukas said. “I have a passion for the main event. I want to compete in them. At 86, I have a few things going for me. We have a really good filly and we have a pretty good colt too in Ethereal Road (Quality Road). I have an experience edge on these guys big time. There's no how-to book when it comes to winning the race. I have already having done it and that gives you an edge. I am enjoying it immensely.”

During a prolonged period where negative racing stories have dominated the headlines, the story of an 86-year-old icon winning the Kentucky Derby with a filly could help heal a lot of wounds. Can it happen? It looks like Wayne Lukas is willing to give it every chance.

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