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Prevalence on Target for Derby Prep

Godolphin's Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro), who followed a 'TDN Rising Star'-worthy debut going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Jan. 23 with a one-mile allowance tally in Hallandale last Thursday, could make his next start in a GI Kentucky Derby prep, with the Apr. 3 GII Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland the same day, and the Apr. 10 GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park all in play.

“His maiden win told us something, his allowance win told us even more and his next race will decide where we go from there. Each race is its own entity,” Jimmy Bell, President of Godolphin's North American division, told the NYRA notes team. “We'll all be curious to see what his best distance is. He showed a nice step up from seven-eighths to a mile.”

Of the colt's possible next start, Bell added, “It becomes a question of where his energy level is and it comes down to a timing thing. His past races gave him some good experiences and when asked, he responded professionally.”

Godolphin's Lake Avenue (Tapit), winner of last week's Heavenly Prize S., could return to Aqueduct for the Apr. 2 GIII Distaff S., according to Bell. The 4-year-old filly won the 2019 GII Demoiselle S., but was winless in four starts last season. She is now two-for-two in 2021 and has impressed connections with a new ability to settle off the pace.

“In her last two races she showed different dimensions where she can break, settle and monitor the situation from off the pace. She got in a good position in both races and when the jockey said, 'Go,' she responded,” Bell said. “Her last two races really gave us a lot of confidence moving forward. We were a little uncertain with her, but she just gave us two really good performances.”

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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour, Caddo River Stand Out In Rebel

The $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the local prep at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, drew a field of eight 3-year-olds trying to earn the winner's share of 50 points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system, not to mention the minimum $600,000 which goes to the winning owner. Among the eight, seven have two-turn experience and six have won a two-turn race, with four of those stakes winners and another stakes placed.

On the flip side, three of those with positive stakes experience are returning from layoffs ranging from 100 to 165 days and it might be a tough question to ask even those talented colts to run a winning race off those long layoffs. Get Her Number is one of those, having captured the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. Another is Keepmeinmind, winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Super Stock finished third and second in three graded stakes last year, the most recent when the runner-up in the Street Sense Stakes at the end of October.

Then we move to the horses with the most recent efforts, with all five entering the Rebel Stakes following wins. Among that group, Caddo River and Concert Tour were stakes winners. Caddo River returned from a little over two months off to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on January 22, while Concert Tour won the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs at Santa Anita on February 6. Hozier enters the race off a maiden win at Santa Anita and shares the barn of Bob Baffert with Concert Tour. Big Lake and Twilight Blue both won their most recent races in allowance company and are trying to step up to the stakes level with similar efforts.

Having discounted the chances of all three horses with stakes credentials who are trying to win off lengthy layoffs – Get Her Number, Keepmeinmind and Super Stock, and believing the horses coming out of maiden and allowance wins may need a bit of maturing and seasoning to win a race at this level, it appears Concert Tour and Caddo River are standouts in terms of probability to win.

Concert Tour has won both starts of his career, the first a six furlong race on Jan. 15 with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and the second when winning the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 6 with an even better 106 figure which is the best any horse in the Rebel field has earned. Showing a lot of maturity when racing in third in the early stages, Concert Tour moved professionally to the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile and won by a half-length. Jockey Joel Rosario was aboard for both wins and rides back in the Rebel and the colt put in a snazzy six furlong workout in 1:11.4 on March 6 to show he's in tip-top form. Concert Tour has a fantastic pedigree for going long as a son of Street Sense out of a Tapit mare. Sons of Street Sense such as Maxfield, McKinzie and Avery Island have had a big impact the past few seasons in 3-year-old races and of course there's the Baffert factor as well. A simple STATS Race Lens query exemplifies what racing fans know internally about Baffert's success in three year old races, showing over the last five years Baffert trainees have won 33 of 95 dirt route graded stakes for three year olds. Additionally, there's no concern about a Baffert charge stretching out to a route for the first time in a graded stakes, as he won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal off a sprint, as well as the 2021 Sham Stakes with current early Kentucky Derby favorite Life is Good.

Caddo River was very impressive winning the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22 at Oaklawn by 10 lengths. Cruising to the lead from the start, Caddo River kept a steady pace to draw away by three lengths with a quarter mile to go, by six lengths with an eighth of a mile to go before coasting home. Earning a 101 figure, the same earned when winning his previous start in November, Caddo River could easily take a huge step forward in his second start off the layoff and run well enough to win the Rebel Stakes, particularly if allowed to control the pace from a rail he draws. Jockey Florent Geroux has been aboard for the colt's last two wins and rides back and the fact that Caddo River won over the track could give him a familiarity edge over Concert Tour. Although he's been training for many years, trainer Brad Cox truly burst into the big leagues the past few years, and on fewer starters than Baffert in three year old dirt route races his numbers are quite similar in terms of percentage. Cox has a record of 10 for 28 in three year old dirt route graded stakes over the past five years including Essential Quality, winner of the Southwest Stakes at the end of February, and Mandaloun, recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes. If Caddo River wins or even finishes second, that would give Cox three major players as we head into the biggest races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Big Lake (95), Get Her Number (88), Hozier (89), Keepmeinmind (91), Super Stock (93) and Twilight Blue (100).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Caddo River

Rebel Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, March 13 – Post Time 6:16 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Oaklawn Raises Purses 15%, Top Allowances Now Worth $110K

Over the final eight weeks of its 2021 season, Oaklawn will boost purses by 15%, a total of $2.5 million, into overnight races, including increasing top allowance races to $110,000. The across the board increase also takes maiden special weights to $93,000 and raises the bottom purse to $27,000, and represents the largest in-season purse hike in the track's history.

“It's been an interesting year to say the least, but it is very gratifying to announce this purse increase nearly a year after shutting the race meet and casino down to fans because of the COVID-19 pandemic,” Oaklawn President Louis Cella said. “I wasn't sure we'd get here a couple weeks ago with all the bad winter weather, but our horsemen and fans are resilient. February ended with a tremendous weekend of racing and it was exciting to see fans back in the infield last week. I have no doubt the final eight weeks of racing are going to be exciting, especially with some of our marquee races still to come.”

Saturday's 12-race card at the Hot Springs oval will be highlighted by the $1-million GII Rebel S. 3-year-olds as the $500,000 Essex H., $350,000 GII Azeri S., $200,000 Hot Springs S., and $150,000 Temperence Hill S. First post is 12 noon.

“Rebel Stakes weekend has grown to be almost as big as Arkansas Derby Day and we're excited to be able to welcome more fans back just in time for the richest racing in our history,” General Manager Wayne Smith said. “Weather permitting, the infield will be open every Saturday throughout the end of the meet. The infield is truly a rite of spring and it was certainly missed last year.”

Oaklawn's 2021 live meet continues through Saturday, May 1.

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Champions Monomoy Girl, Essential Quality Return To Fair Grounds To Prepare For Next Engagements

Champions Monomoy Girl and Essential Quality left Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Ark., late Tuesday morning after successful 2021 debuts over the weekend for Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox.

Assistant trainer Jorgito Abrego, who oversees Cox's Oaklawn division, said Monomoy Girl and Essential Quality were vanned back to Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., where they have been based and trained this winter, and now, early spring. Essential Quality (4 for 4 overall) won Saturday's $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) for 3-year-olds, his first start since clinching an Eclipse Award as the country's champion 2-year-old male in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland.

Monomoy Girl began her farewell tour by winning Sunday's $250,000 Bayakoa Stakes (G3) for older fillies and mares to stretch her career record to 14-2-0 from 16 starts. She was the county's champion 3-year-old filly of 2018 and champion older dirt female last year.

Cox said Essential Quality could return to Hot Springs for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10. Plans are more concrete for Monomoy Girl, who will be pointed for the $1 million Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) April 17 at Oaklawn, Cox said.

“Little more consistent weather there right now,” Cox said. “That would be the main reason we're taking them back down. Neither one of them will run there, obviously.”

Monomoy Girl received a preliminary Beyer Speed Figure of 96 for her two-length Bayakoa victory. It was her first start since winning the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) Nov. 7 at Keeneland and first since Spendthrift Farm purchased the 6-year-old daughter of Tapizar for $9.5 million the following day at Fasig-Tipton's Kentucky Fall Mixed Sale. Monomoy Girl will join Spendthrift's broodmare band in 2022, its stallion sales manager, Mark Toothaker, said in the Larry Snyder Winner's Circle following the Bayakoa.

Bloodstock agent Liz Crow purchased Monomoy Girl for $100,000 at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale for her original owner, Sol Kumin. Shortly before the Bayakoa, it was revealed that Kumin had bought back into the mare and My Racehorse Stable, which offers fractional ownership to investors, was another of Spendthrift's racing partners.

“You couldn't help but being a little bit nervous,” Toothaker, a Van Buren, Ark., native, said. “She did what she does. She doesn't win always drawing off, just does enough to win. Brad said that's probably why she's still around at 6 years old.”

Favored at 1-5 under regular rider Florent Geroux, Monomoy Girl ($2.40) ran 1 1/16 miles over a sloppy surface in 1:45.92. Lightning was visible southeast of Oaklawn during the post parade. Like Toothaker, Cox said he was a “little bit” nervous leading up to Monomoy Girl's 2021 debut.

“That kind of comes with what she's accomplished,” Cox said moments after sweeping the final three races Sunday. “It's kind of a relief to get it over with.”

Monomoy Girl's 11th stakes victory increased her career earnings to $4,576,818, which ranks 82^nd in North American history, according to Equibase, racing's official data gathering organization. Among Oaklawn-raced females, only Eclipse Award winners Midnight Bisou ($7,471,520) and Zenyatta ($7,304,580) have bankrolled more money. Zenyatta won the 2008 and 2010 Apple Blossom en route to champion older dirt female honors. She was also 2010 Horse of the Year. Midnight Bisou used a victory in the 2019 Apple Blossom as a springboard to an Eclipse Award as champion older dirt female.

“We're just very fortunate to be around her and to own her,” Toothaker said. “Look forward to this year and we'll look forward to breeding her to Into Mischief next year. Very exciting.”

Kentucky's Spendthrift stands Into Mischief, North America's leading sire the last two years.

The Southwest and Bayakoa were originally scheduled Feb. 15 before being postponed twice because of severe winter weather. The Bayakoa was Monomoy Girl's first start at Oaklawn.

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