Having proven heads and shoulders above the local 3-year-old filly contingent, Briland Farm homebred Secret Oath (Arrogate) takes on the boys in Saturday's $1.25-million GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The chestnut figures a warm favorite to become the first of her gender to win the race since her Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas saddled Althea (Alydar) to score by seven lengths in the 1984 renewal, with future GI Belmont S. runner-up Pine Circle (Cox's Ridge) and GI Preakness S. hero Gate Dancer (Sovereign Dancer) noses apart in second and third.
A maiden winner and fifth to GIII Fantasy S. hopeful Dream Lith (Medaglia d'Oro) in last year's GII Golden Rod S., Secret Oath has been nothing short of sensational in annexing three starts at this meet by a combined 23 lengths. A handy allowance winner on New Year's Eve, the chestnut pummeled her rivals by 7 1/4 lengths in the Jan. 29 Martha Washington S. and again in the GIII Honeybee S. Feb. 26, with eyecatching bursts on each occasion.
Her trainer, whose success with fillies like Althea, Derby winner Winning Colors and Serena's Song is well-documented–has been impressed with Secret Oath's development.
“She's got a running style and the efficiency of motion is good,” Lukas said. “She places herself in the race. I would say the thing that's probably the biggest concern would be a traffic problem. She's very rangy and tall. I don't know about starting and stopping. In the Honeybee, they shut her down, then just 'Boom!' She amazed me that when she dove into the rail [turning for home], she just [took off)].”
Now, to be fair to Althea, who has contributed mightily to the American Stud Book down the years, Secret Oath faces competition not nearly as deep as Althea did 38 years ago. The progressive We the People (Constitution) kicked clear to graduate by nearly six lengths on his one-mile debut Feb. 12 and doubled up with a five-length allowance tally Mar. 12, good for 'TDN Rising Star' honors. Those wishing to take a contrarian view will note that the bay colt tracked a very slow pace on the latter occasion and won off like a 2-5 chance should.
Doppelganger (Into Mischief) makes his first start for trainer Tim Yakteen Saturday and has form through Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah), to whom he was a disappointing fourth in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente S. Jan. 29 at Santa Anita before chasing home that rival to finish a distant second in the GII San Vicente S. Mar. 5. The blinkers come off this afternoon.
Un Ojo (Laoban) outran longshot odds to be second to the promising Early Voting (Gun Runner) in the Feb. 5 GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct and looked beaten in this track's GII Rebel S. before surging home on perhaps the best part of the strip to post a half-length success, with Barber Road (Race Day) third.
Cyberknife (Gun Runner) bounced back from a below-par sixth in the GIII Lecomte S. in January with a sound three-length allowance score at the Fair Grounds Feb. 19 and is bound to go off at a price shorter than his 8-1 morning line.
There was a time when you would load as much experience and conditioning as possible into a Kentucky Derby horse, as a mere adolescent required to jostle with 19 others through 10 furlongs. Nowadays, however, trainers are trying to reach Churchill Downs across a highwire stretched to a thread by two diametrically opposed imperatives. One is their conviction, whether through perception or presumption, that the typical, commercial-bred Thoroughbred of today can only stand up to a much lighter schedule. The other is to secure enough gate points in the trials.
In trying to reconcile this paradox, many horses reach this stage of the game with zero margin for error. For these the next two Saturdays, with six races carrying 170 starting points apiece, will be make-or-break. If you land a wide draw, or a rough trip, or an off track–well, tough. In some cases, to be fair, setbacks along the way will have left trainers no choice. But others have painted themselves into a corner by a witting trade-off between the benefits they perceive in conserving the gas, and the risk of the strategy backfiring.
What sets Bob Baffert apart, as the master of the modern Derby preparation, is his ability to fast-track even a horse as late onto the scene as Justify (Scat Daddy). It doesn't seem to matter that a lot of those Californian trials are too mildly contested to yield much in the way of useful experience. Somehow, whether by accident or design, his methods have proved ideally tailored to the changing demands of the race. Okay, so maybe even he could only hit with a winner as goofy as Authentic (Into Mischief) was in the GIII Sham S. because the Derby, that year, was delayed until September. Time after time, however, Baffert manages to drill raw horses to all the professionalism required to take control on the first Saturday in May.
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Now I realize that his regime is a demanding one. But if you don't like those Quarter Horse works, hard and fast, then how else do you propose getting a horse ready for the Louisville street fight after barely five minutes of competition? (Some or even most of which, moreover, will have been confined to maiden company.)
As I'm always complaining, carrying your speed in the Derby is nothing like as exacting, now that the sprinters have been excluded by the starting points system. This has surely assisted Baffert, whose horses so often just run the finish out of their pursuers. But it's not as though the race is now some kind of picnic.
The trials have always been a means to an end. They were dress rehearsals, a way of ensuring that the actors knew their lines blindfolded and had their timing tight. But the contradictory aspirations of many trainers today are muddling those ends and means. Their actors rehearse lying in the bath, mumbling to themselves from a soggy script. Trainers used to build up physical and mental fitness until their horses were ready to break down the door. Now they try to wedge it open just enough for horses to slip through with minimal effort.
Needless to say, there are a lot of outstanding horsemen out there applying themselves to the conundrum. It looks no coincidence, for instance, that the GII Louisiana Derby proved the deepest trial last year, having been extended to a mile and 3/16ths. That has created a useful compromise: the timing serves the conservatism of trainers, with 14 extra days of freshening relative to those running at Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita next week; while the distance, at the same time, gives the horses something valid to recover from.
Certainly those supervising Epicenter (Not This Time) have actually used his preps as just that: as preparation. They haven't viewed them merely as a way of securing a big day out, but as a tool for maximizing his chance of actually getting that blanket of roses. Admittedly they have hardly explored his versatility, in terms of surface, albeit he broke his maiden on the one that stages the Derby. But he has been learning about his vocation all winter, notably from a speed ambush in the GIII Lecomte S., and was able to make a slick adjustment to a different running style last Saturday.
This year, of course, the Baffert horses have themselves been left without wriggle-room in terms of starting points, having been ineligible to bank any before their recent move to other barns. As a former assistant who shared his transition from Quarter Horses, however, Tim Yakteen has worked his new recruits in seamless fashion, sending Doppelganger (Into Mischief) into the GI Arkansas Derby with five furlongs in a minute flat, to follow six furlongs in 1:10.8 the previous week.
Lukas alongside his latest star filly this week | Coady
As it happens, the ultimate pioneer from the Quarter Horse world also has this single shot to get to the Kentucky Derby, though again the circumstances are highly unusual. As we've remarked before, a bold experiment with the filly Secret Oath (Arrogate) could yet redeem our whole community, single-handed, from an apparently endless streak of hideous headlines. If she can proceed to the Derby as one of the favorites, it will scarcely matter whether or not she can actually win, so long as D. Wayne Lukas gets a platform to intrigue, win round and ultimately inspire outsiders in the days before the race. But if she can excel, then perhaps the old master may have some timely lessons for his timid juniors within the business, as well.
The principal purpose of these proving grounds, remember, is to ensure that the next generation of breeders can work with properly tested genes. Charismatic (Summer Squall)–the fourth but perhaps not the last of Lukas's Derby winners–learned on the job to the extent that he took six attempts to break his maiden at two, and his Derby trail then comprised starts on Dec. 27, Jan. 16, Jan. 31, Feb. 11, Feb. 19, Mar. 6, Apr. 3 and Apr. 18. This was 1999, not 1949, and how blessed we all are that the Coach is still here to show the kids how it can be done.
We all marveled at Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow)'s latest reiteration of his toughness and courage in Dubai last weekend. Nobody could call his sire a commercial hit. But who was it that showed us that Oxbow, one of the few good horses he has been sent in recent years, could soak up 13 starts inside 12 months? Who was it who reminded everyone that you're still allowed to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown, and run 6-1-2, even if you don't win the first?
Good luck to you, then, Mr. Lukas–because with this filly, your luck is everybody's luck.
An addition to “America's Day at the Races” will feature a chance to see D. Wayne Lukas's filly, Secret Oath (Arrogate), take on the boys and possibly secure a GI Kentucky Derby berth in live coverage of Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Saturday's broadcast, which will feature live racing from both Oaklawn and Aqueduct Racetrack, begins on FOX Sports 2 at 1:30 p.m. ET before moving to Fox Sports 1 at 4:00 p.m. ET. Coverage will continue until 8:30 p.m. ET with post time for the Arkansas Derby scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET.
Laffit Pincay III will host from Oaklawn with Hall of Famer Gary Stevens and Maggie Wolfendale. Greg Wolf will host from Aqueduct with Andy Serling, Richard Migliore, Anthony Stabile, and Rick Schosberg. Four stakes are slated for Saturday's Oaklawn card, including the GIII Fantasy S., a qualifying race for the GI Kentucky Oaks, and Aqueduct will feature a nine-race card, including the Excelsior S. for older horses.
America's Day at the Races is produced by the New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) in partnership with FOX Sports.
Though Secret Oath (Arrogate) will meet males Saturday in the GI Arkansas Derby, Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas has been saying all along that the main goal for her remains the GI Kentucky Oaks. That's starting to change.
“First of all, we have to assume she is going to run a top race in the Arkansas Derby,” Lukas said. “(Owner-breeder) Rob Mitchell and I were talking three weeks ago and he said he wanted to go in the Oaks. Since then, he's brought up the Derby two or three times. I think it's a 50-50 proposition. That Derby Fever runs deep. I'll do whatever they want.”
Lukas understands that there is nothing like running a horse in the Kentucky Derby, especially a top contender. Even a race as prestigious as the Kentucky Oaks doesn't compare.
“I've been there and done that,” he said. “I've had all the thrills. I've sang 'My Old Kentucky Home.' I've had the experience a number of times. I want to give the Mitchells that experience. I want them to do whatever they want to do. If they say we want to run in the Derby that's what we will do. Whatever way they lean, I will endorse it 100% and try to make it work.”
Lukas and Mitchell, who owns Secret Oath along with his wife Stacy, have laid the groundwork for a possible Derby start. Had they opted instead to run against 3-year-old fillies the same day in the GIII Fantasy S., they would not have been able to accrue any points for the Derby. After Secret Oath romped in the GIII Honeybee S., winning her third straight, the decision was made to test the water in the Arkansas Derby. On paper, it looks like a smart move. The males lining up for the race are not a particularly strong group and Secret Oath has been made the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Secret Oath is the only horse in the race to have run a Beyer figure in the nineties.
“There was a lot of discussion that went into this,” Lukas said. “The Fantasy, believe it or not, is a Grade III. Rob and Stacy Mitchell thought that if we were going to go for a Grade I, maybe this was the spot to try it. They think we are competitive with the colts, which we probably are. Secondly, it's $1.25 million for the Arkansas Derby versus $600,000 for the Fantasy. I let them make the decision. I told them their filly was in top shape right now and I had led them over there against the colts before and I would do it again with great confidence. But the Grade III versus the Grade I was the main thing that pushed us in that direction.”
More so than any other trainer in the sport, Lukas knows what buttons to push when it comes to running fillies against colts. He won the Kentucky Derby in 1988 with the filly Winning Colors, one of only three fillies to win the race, and he won the 1984 Arkansas Derby with the filly Althea. She came back to run 19th in the Derby. He's won Grade I stakes races against males with Lady's Secret and Serena's Song.
“We are so tradition bound in Thoroughbred racing,” he said. “Nobody changes anything. I came along in the seventies and we made some changes and we were criticized for it. Even for the white bridles. Tradition is real strong, even with the younger guys. But, with a filly, if you have the fastest horse, you're in the right situation, the horse is doing the best they can possibly be doing and you can analyze the field and say, 'look, we are as good as they are,' I have no problem leading them over there. The Kentucky Derby is a career-making race.”
Appearing on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, jockey Gary Stevens, who rode Winning Colors, said that Secret Oath might be better than the Hall of Fame filly. Lukas isn't ready to go there yet, but he has a ton of confidence in Secret Oath.
“She breaks their heart when she runs by horses,” he said. “She'll clock them for a little while, and then when Luis Contreras let's her go, she has an acceleration that is really special. Winning Colors has done a lot more. But she could be that type. I don't know if I'd rate her as high as Winning Colors just yet. But when we get a little further down the base paths, she could turn out to be that good.”
Throughout his career, Lukas has been the eternal optimist. But even he probably never thought he might get back to the Derby at age 86. He has not won the race since 1999 with Charismatic, and his last Derby starter was Bravazo (Awesome Again) in 2018.
“My wife tells me every day, boy, with the way that filly has been running, it has really picked your head up,” Lukas said. “I have a passion for the main event. I want to compete in them. At 86, I have a few things going for me. We have a really good filly and we have a pretty good colt too in Ethereal Road (Quality Road). I have an experience edge on these guys big time. There's no how-to book when it comes to winning the race. I have already having done it and that gives you an edge. I am enjoying it immensely.”
During a prolonged period where negative racing stories have dominated the headlines, the story of an 86-year-old icon winning the Kentucky Derby with a filly could help heal a lot of wounds. Can it happen? It looks like Wayne Lukas is willing to give it every chance.
