Davis Hoping To Use Monmouth’s Sapling As Breeders’ Cup Steppingstone With American Sanctuary

For trainer Christopher Davis to venture East to Monmouth Park, something he has done just once before in his brief career, there has to be a good reason.

Visions of the Breeders' Cup would qualify as that.

Davis, currently based at Arlington Park, will send American Sanctuary to Monmouth Park for Sunday's $200,000 Sapling Stakes at one mile for 2-year-olds, one of the highlights of four straight days of live racing that starts on Friday.

A Kentucky-bred son of American Freedom-Haven's Honey by E Dubai, American Sanctuary will be seeking his first stakes win, with a bigger prize in Davis' sights down the road for the aptly-named Dare to Dream Stable-owned colt. American Sanctuary finished second in the Prairie Meadows Gold Juvenile Stakes in his last start on Aug. 14.

“He got a rough trip in that race, finished really strong and galloped out great,” said Davis. “He's a horse that we want to go long with. He came out of that race in good order and worked back last week. We're trying to make the Breeders' Cup with him.”

Davis, 32, is having the type of career year that suggests that he may not be over-reaching with that goal. He is just two wins shy (with 30 overall) of matching his career best for a year and his $859,457 in earnings are already a personal best. On July 17 he earned his first graded stakes win when Naval Laughter captured the Grade 3 Modesty Star at Arlington Park.

American Sanctuary, though, has not tried more than six furlongs.

“I like the distance of the Sapling for him,” said Davis. “I like going from three-quarters of a mile to a flat mile, as opposed to a mile and a sixteenth. Looking at the nominations I feel we're right there with the top ones in the field.”

Davis, who grew up under parents who were both trainers, has been on his own since 2016. He currently has 35 horses and is looking to branch out beyond the Midwest, with plans to try Gulfstream Park this winter.

His trip to Monmouth will be just the second of his career. In 2018, he saddled Moonlit Garden to a second-place finish behind Divine Miss Grey in the Lady's Secret Stakes.

“I was going to send a couple to Monmouth last year but it didn't work out,” he said. “They were going to give me stalls, but with COVID-19 and the late start they had we had to change out plans and wound up at Churchill.

“With Arlington closing we could potentially have some horses at Monmouth Park next year. We'll see.”

Accompanying American Sanctuary on the trip East will be stablemate Quick Tempo, with Davis pointing that one to the Rumson Stakes on Sept. 11 at Monmouth Park.

In addition to the 87th running of the Sapling on Sunday, Monmouth Park will feature the Grade 3 Red Bank Stakes on Saturday and the $200,000 Sorority Stakes for 2-year-old fillies at a mile on Monday.

First race post time on Friday is 3 p.m. Post time for the remainder of the meet through Sept. 26 will be 12:15 p.m. starting on Saturday.

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Hopeful Could Be Next For Defend

The connections of Defend (American Freedom), a romping winner in his Aug. 5 debut at Delaware Park, have yet to pick out his next race, but they aren't afraid to tackle a tough spot, including the GI Hopeful S. It's clear to see why.

“His race was phenomenal. It looked like he was on cruise control,” Susan Montanye said of his debut. Montanye bought the colt as a yearling and still owns a small percentage in partnership with Nick Sanna.

Montanye was among the first to discover his potential talent. She bought the colt in October of his yearling year, paying just $16,000 for him at OBS. She then entered him into this year's Fasig-Tipton Mid-Atlantic 2-year-old sale, where he RNA'd at $72,000. Shortly after the sale, she sold a majority interest in the horse to Sanna, who sent the horse to trainer Cal Lynch.

Early on, Lynch also saw that there was some talent there.

“My son, Anthony, had him at Fair Hill and he was very keen on him,” Lynch said. “We worked him on the Tapeta there and he worked really well over it. I brought him to Delaware and worked him out of the gate and he worked really well. We loved the way he went and thought he did everything right. He was very professional. For a young horse, he had a great mind and that's what sets him apart. I never breezed him super fast. He does everything easily.”

Sent off at 4-1 in his debut, Defend went right to the lead and soon sprinted clear of his seven rivals. Under wraps through most of the stretch run, he won by eight lengths and covered the 5 1/2 furlongs run over a fast track in 1:04.27. The race was split and the other half went in 1:06.68. Defend earned a 75 Beyer figure.

Lynch is optimistic that Defend will be even better in his next start.

“We were optimistic that he would run a good race,” he said. “He had trained really well. So we thought he'd run well. But I don't think I've ever taken a 2-year-old over there for their first start and thought they were really ready or cranked. He surprised us a little bit, but we knew he was talented.”

Defend's win was just the latest for the Airdrie stallion, American Freedom, who has gotten off to a fast start with his first crop. He's had five 2-year-old winners so far, including American Bound, a filly who won a maiden special weight race at the Keeneland spring meet. The list also includes American Sanctuary, who, after breaking his maiden at Prairie Meadows, came back to finish second in the Prairie Gold Juvenile S., also at Prairie Meadows.

With his horse having a promising pedigree and coming off an impressive win, it's no surprise that Sanna's phone has been ringing from prospective buyers. Lynch said that, for now, his owner prefers to enjoy what he has.

“We are getting calls,” Lynch said. “Nick Sanna is a good sport and he really likes him. He wants to take a ride and see where it leads. He's had some good horses over the years but nothing like this.”

In the meantime, Sanna and Lynch will try to figure out what's best for their horse. It looks like he can handle a race like the Sept. 6 Hopeful, but that would mean taking on divisional leader Wit (Practical Joke). After breaking his maiden by six lengths, Wit won the GIII Sanford S. by eight lengths.

“The Hopeful is a logical spot, but we're just going to see how he trains,” Lynch said. “He worked good Saturday. After another couple of works we will decide. We always let the horse dictate things. The Hopeful is a spot we'd like to go in. There are a bunch of other2-year-old dates for him. I'm not sure we want to go up there and take on Wit. But it's a definite possibility.”

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American Freedom Firster Highly Impressive at Delaware

2nd-Delaware, $39,420, Msw, 8-5, 2yo, 5 1/2f, 1:04.27, ft, 8 lengths.
DEFEND (c, 2, American Freedom–Fabiana's Flash, by City Zip) became the sixth winner for his first-crop sire (by Pulpit) with a highly impressive debut romp. Sent off right at his morning line of 4-1, the April foal set the pace from favored Mr. Cunningham (Creative Cause), getting the opening quarter mile in a controlled :22.61. Racing well in hand and going extremely well on the turn, Defend came a bit wide into the lane, but was shaken up under a motionless Charlie Marquez ride, was well clear into the final furlong and was never out of a high gallop, scoring by eight lengths. A $16,000 purchase out of last year's OBS October sale, Defend breezed an eighth of a mile in :10 2/5 (see below), but was led out unsold on a bid of $72,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Sale in May. Produced by a daughter of GSW Flashy N Smart (Smarten), Defend has a yearling half-sister named A Day in Vegas (Uncaptured). Fabiana's Flash was most recently covered by Valiant Minister. Sales history: $16,000 Ylg '20 OBSOCT; $72,000 RNA 2yo '21 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $22,800. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.
O-Nick Sanna Stables LLC; B-Cheryl & James McGuire, Richard Heysek & Catherine Perez (FL); T-Cathal A Lynch.

 

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Body & Soul: Another Freshmen Future Book

Following the completion of the last major 2-year-old sale of the season in each of the past three years, we looked at the potential success of the freshmen sires by creating a handicapping event, noting that the freshmen sires of each year were very competitive bunches, i.e., many of them were capable of rising to the top five or so of their contemporaries after a few crops had raced.

With the aberration in sales dates last year caused by the COVID-19 situation behind us, this season's major sales proceeded as traditionally scheduled, from March through June. Now that the graduates of those sales are starting to race some observers might infer that we will prejudice our picks toward some stallions that have already had a few impressive winners.

To answer that: 1) Fewer than two dozen graduates of the sales sired by freshmen have started thus far; 2): Our task is to lay odds on how the offspring of these sires are likely to compete over the long term, not to identify the Leading Freshman Sire–although both outcomes could be the case in some years.

We concentrated on freshmen of 2021 that had at least 10 of their offspring breeze at the major 2-year-old sales. While we look at pedigrees in context of commercial appeal, we utilize only video and biomechanical data to assist us in our prognostications. The video data details how their offspring compared as individuals to all the other 2-year-olds which breezed regardless of their sires. The components of this data are included in DataTrack's BreezeFigs™ service which is partially based on breeze time, stride length, and efficiency of angulation. Since 2006, this product has been utilized at sales by buyers and sellers, as well as being offered every day as a handicapping tool at Daily Racing Form's website.

We also took into consideration the results of stallion projection profiles which were compiled in 2018 when these horses went to stud. These profiles are based on biomechanical measurements and the probabilities of these stallions siring race-efficient foals from books of biomechanically balanced mares.

Arrogate | Asuncion Piñeyrua

We also took into consideration the biomechanical profiles of their offspring taken at the 2021 2-year-old and the 2020 yearling sales.

As mentioned, we limited our interest to stallions for which we have biomechanical data which also had at least 10 offspring that breezed at the major sales–that came down to 17 that began their careers in Kentucky (one, Arrogate, has since died), plus one in New York. In addition, we separated each sire's offspring by sex and in the process discovered that while a few had solid data for both colts and fillies, several others were stronger for one sex. However, several, including some with huge crops represented, returned disappointing results for both sexes.

Fifteen of the Kentucky stallions were separated into three groups according to stud fees that were in effect when they retired to stud–ironically, there are five in each of those groups. Theoretically, they are competing against each other in “races” according to a hypothetical condition book. In addition, Arrogate was set apart because he left only one crop behind, and the other, Mohaymen, entered stud for $7,500 and was grouped with Union Jackson, who stands in New York.

Based on our dataset, which has more than half-dozen components, what follows is our “Future Book” on how each of these stallions stack up as the best long-term prospects within their individual groups.

Group 1 (Stud Fee=$25,000 Plus, Kentucky)

∙              8-to-5                  Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              5-to-2                  Lord Nelson (Pulpit)

∙              5-to-2                  Practical Joke (Into Mischief)

∙              3-to-1                  Mastery (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              6-to-1                  Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile)

Comment: Gun Runner was a heck of a runner and despite that he had fewer 2-year-old representatives than any other in this group, this guy delivered all the promise his biomechanical profile suggested he possessed–and along with Mastery gives his sire a super shot of continuing on his path as a serious sire of sires. Indeed, this group is so close together on the datasets that it may take a couple of years before one or two of them can shake loose from the pack–or battle each other through their lifetimes. Practical Joke was a talking-sire at the sales and they are off and running fast. Lord Nelson popped up as a bit of surprise and adds credence to the belief that his sire left us too soon (viz Tapit, California Chrome, and see American Freedom in Group 3 as well). Classic Empire has a strong chance of moving up as his crops mature.

Group 2 ($12,500 to $20,000, Kentucky)

∙              8-to-5                   Midnight Storm (Pioneerof the Nile)

∙              5-to-1                   Astern (Aus) (Medaglia d'Oro)

∙              8-to-1                   Connect (Curlin)

∙              10-to-1                 Cupid (Tapit)

∙              15-to-1                 Bal a Bali (Brz) (Put It Back)

Midnight Storm | Taylor Made Stallions/Amy Lanigan

Comment: Irony here is that Midnight Storm, whose dataset is strong across the board, has a shot at topping off this entire crop and along with Classic Empire solidify their sire as another who left us too soon. Astern (Aus) is another example of his sire's ability to get serious prospects in two hemispheres and his dataset is strong. Connect and Cupid will probably not be contending for Leading Freshmen Sire honors but when they go further, they could emerge sharply, Bal a Bali (Brz) is his sire's first shot at proving his exportation was a premature event, and he has the goods to send them out early.

Group 3 ($10,000, Kentucky)

∙              3-to-1                   American Freedom (Pulpit)

∙              5-to-1                   Gormley (Malibu Moon)

∙              8-to-1                   Unified (Candy Ride {Arg})

∙              15-to-1                 Keen Ice (Curlin)

∙              15-to-1                 Klimt (Quality Road)

American Freedom | Sarah Andrew

Comment: American Freedom was consistent in sending out offspring that were consistently good performers on the track–watch out Lord Nelson! Gormley and Unified sent out huge numbers of breezers who look like they might get runners that can perform at any distance. Keen Ice and Klimt are likely to need to wait to see their kids score big time, but that could happen toward the end of the year.

Group 4 (Below $10,000, Kentucky & Regional)

∙              5-to-2                   Mohaymen (Tapit) (Kentucky)

∙              5-to-2                   Union Jackson (Union Rags) (New York)

Comment: Everyone should keep in mind that Mohaymen was a terrific early juvenile, so his stud fee may look like a bargain soon. Union Jackson comes from a very clever outfit and more of them came out than is usually the case for a freshman not based in Florida, and they impressed.

And then there is Arrogate. Suffice it to say that if had more than one crop he'd be up there challenging Gun Runner for long-term honors. We would not be surprised if he battles for the lead at the end of this year, thus underscoring what might be a growing legacy for Unbridled's Song–his best siring sons were, as they said in other times, the last of the wine.

There you go, place your bets!

(Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached at bbfq@earthlink.net).

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