Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Grade 1 Stats
Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)
The Favourite’s Graveyard: Zero favourites have won in the last 12 years. The last successful favourite was At Fishers Cross in 2013.
Price Matters: 10 of the last 12 winners were sent off at double-figure odds (including 50/1 and 33/1 shots).
Age Profile: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Stamina is King: 11 of the last 12 winners had already run over at least 2m 7f.
Freshness: 10 of the last 12 winners had not raced for at least 30 days.
Irish Dominance: 9 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland.
Runner Analysis & Preference List
1. Thedeviluno (Trainer: Paul Nolan | Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe)
Trends Fit: 10/10. He is the quintessential Albert Bartlett horse. An Irish-trained 7-year-old with a rating of 141, he won the Grade 2 River Don at Doncaster last time out—a key trial for this race (Stay Away Fay followed the same path). He stays all day and, crucially, fits the trend of being a high-class Irish raider at a double-figure price (approx 12/1).
Verdict: He meets every single major trend. His battling qualities are perfect for this race.
2. Kazansky (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jordan Gainford)
Trends Fit: 9/10. Another strong Irish candidate. He is a 6-year-old rated 139 who was a very good second to Doctor Steinberg in a Grade 1 last month. While he was beaten there, Albert Bartlett winners often come from the placed horses in shorter-trip Grade 1s. He has won over 2m 7f on heavy ground, so his stamina is proven.
Verdict: Tailor-made for this test. He fits the age, rating, and trainer profiles perfectly.
3. The Passing Wife (Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue)
Trends Fit: 8/10. Representing Gavin Cromwell, who won this with Vanillier. He is a 7-year-old rated 143 who won his last start at Punchestown. He has plenty of experience and is a very slick jumper.
Verdict: High-class Irish form and the right age. He is a major player who will likely be overlooked in the betting.
4. Doctor Steinberg (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)
Trends Fit: 6/10. The “Statistically Vulnerable” Favourite. While he is the best horse in the race (rated 147) and won a Grade 1 last time, he fails the two biggest trends: he is the likely favourite (0/12 for favourites) and he has never raced beyond 2m 4f.
Verdict: Classy, but history suggests he may be outstayed by more seasoned types at a shorter price than is justified.
5. Spinningayarn (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)
Trends Fit: 7/10. A 6-year-old who has won 3 of his 4 hurdle starts. He fits the “unexposed” profile that Willie Mullins often uses to win this race, though he is trained by Elliott.
Verdict: A progressive type, but his lack of a run over 3m is a slight concern for a race this demanding.
6. Mondoui’boy (Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones)
Trends Fit: 5/10. The best of the British. He has won his last two starts and seems to be improving rapidly. However, British-trained horses have a poor recent record against the Irish in this specific race.
Verdict: A solid each-way contender but may find one or two of the Irish too strong at the finish.
7. Espresso Milan (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Patrick Mullins)
Trends Fit: 5/10. A “wildcard” entry for Mullins. He won a minor race at Thurles by a wide margin. He fits the trend of winners coming from unheralded prep races (like The Nice Guy), but his jumping can be sketchy.
Verdict: A dangerous outsider who fits the “big price” trend.
Order of Preference
1. Thedeviluno (Perfect trend match; proven stayer at a good price)
2. Kazansky (Strong Irish Grade 1 form; looks like a 3-miler)
3. The Passing Wife (Classy, the right age, and from a top yard)
4. Spinningayarn (Unexposed and progressive)
5. Doctor Steinberg (Class leader but fails the stamina and favourite trends)
6. Mondoui’boy
7. Espresso Milan
