Creative Cause, Not This Time See Most Dramatic Jumps In Average At Keeneland September Sale

The commercial market's respect for the late leading sire Giant's Causeway was apparent at this year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where two of his sons filled out the exacta for the biggest year-to-year jumps in average sale price (10 or more sold each year).

Leading the charge was Airdrie Stud's Creative Cause, whose average jumped 71.94 percent during this year's Keeneland September sale to $20,420 from 35 horses sold. As the broadest yearling auction in North America, both by duration and the scope of offerings, a big swing in performance at the Keeneland September sale can be a strong indicator of public favor toward a particular stallion.

Creative Cause nearly doubled his average sale price with his sixth crop, but he more than doubled the number of horses sold from year to year, with the previous crop featuring 17 yearlings selling at the Keeneland sale for an average of $11,876.

The yearlings of 2020 were conceived in 2018, when Creative Cause's oldest runners were 4-year-olds. At that point, he already had first-crop runner Pavel blazing the trail with a win in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones Stakes and a third against older foes in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes. By the end of the 2018 breeding season, he'd also run fourth in the G1 Dubai World Cup.

Creative Cause's second crop was also doing work to build their sire's fledgling on-track reputation in the eyes of potential breeders, led by My Boy Jack. A stakes winner at two, the colt became a factor on the Kentucky Derby trail after victories in the G3 Sham Stakes and Lexington Stakes. My Boy Jack then became a wiseguy pick for the 2018 Kentucky Derby, where he finished fifth as the betting public's third choice.

Also from her sire's second crop, Significant Form, was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old in 2017, and she ran fourth in that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filles turf.

“This year's crop of yearlings came from a strong, deep group of mares,” said Cormac Breathnach of Airdrie Stud. “He got about 145 mares that year on the back of horses like Pavel and Significant Form, all the headline horses he was represented by. He got the biggest, and probably best, book of mares he's bred. Between his yearlings and the foals of this year, he's got some really outstanding physicals.”

The slate of offerings by Creative Cause at this year's Keeneland September sale was led by Hip 1998, a colt out of the winning Tapit mare Tamboz who sold to Kenny McPeek, agent, for $180,000. Consigned by St George Sales, agent, the colt is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed Battalion Runner, Grade 3-placed Oceanwave, and stakes-placed runners Tiznoble and Late Nite Mischief.

Airdrie Stud also got into the high-priced Creative Cause game, consigning Hip 1707, a filly out of the winning Teofilo mare Catsbury who sold to Deuce Greathouse, agent, for $95,000.

“It's nice to see him get respect, because he's doing very well on the track in terms of getting winners every weekend, and getting some stakes horses, and staying high on the lists with his contemporaries,” Breathnach said. “He's got a lot in the pipeline to sort of have a resurgence.”

Creative Cause was joined at the top of the list by fellow Giant's Causeway heir Not This Time, whose stock has been skyrocketing with the success of his first juveniles in 2020.

The 6-year-old resident of Taylor Made Stallions saw his average sale price at the Keeneland September sale jump 46.41 percent this year to $116,500 from 26 yearlings, hailing from his second crop. His debut crop saw 39 members change hands at last year's Keeneland sale for an average of $79,569.

Not This Time's first crop of runners has been led in practically every sense of the word by Princess Noor, who sold for $1.35 million at this year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co., Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training, and has gone undefeated in three high-profile starts. After breaking her maiden by a front-running 2 1/2 lengths, Princess Noor won the G1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes by 6 1/2 lengths, and she most recently took the G2 Chandelier Stakes by 8 1/4 lengths, making her status as the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies all but certain.

Princess Noor's exploits have played a big part in putting Not This Time at the top of the freshman sire list by progeny earnings, but below the surface, the stallion is represented by stakes winner Dirty Dangle and Grade 3-placed Hopeful Princess.

Taylor Made's Duncan Taylor said the early commercial acceptance of Not This Time, paired with the high-level performance of his first runners, has set the stallion up well for long-term success.

“They got such an awesome reception at the 2-year-old sales, even before he started getting winners,” Taylor said. “Then, Princess Noor brought $1.3 million, and I think when a horse shows that people think enough of their offspring that someone would go beyond a million dollars…When you're trying to market a stallion, it's so hard to break through the clutter. You can run ads, but when you say something brings a million, that starts getting people's attention, and then they really start looking at who he is and what he is, and you get people diving in. When you dive in on this horse, you keep finding better stuff.”

The top seller for Not This Time at this year's Keeneland September sale was Hip 66, a colt out of the unraced Ghostzapper mare Belle's Finale who sold to Repole Stables and St. Elias Stable for $450,000. Taylor Made Sales Agency consigned the colt, as agent.

The mantle is still wide open for a formal North American successor to the Giant's Causeway sire line, and both Creative Cause and Not This Time will be in the hunt for that title as more of their runners hit the racetrack and mature into breeding careers. The race became more urgent after Giant's Causeway died in 2018, and it's easy to argue that these two sires have gotten hot at the right time.

“I always thought Giant's Causeway was a little different [son of] Storm Cat,” Taylor said. “He's not quite as compact and one-dimensional-looking. The typical Storm Cat, to me, though he did get further distances, looked more like sprinters. Giant's Causeway was a little leaner of a horse, and Not This Time's the same way. Who knows how far they're going to go – Princess Noor just won at 1 1/16 miles, but they look like two-turn horses. They don't look like just sprinters, and I think that's another reason why people are excited about the sire.”

Another stallion with a big first crop who made a commercial leap during this year's sale was WinStar Farm's Constitution, who has seen his flag planted in the winner's circles of the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes thanks to Tiz the Law.

Constitution's Keeneland September average for his third crop rose 44.13 percent to $159,619 from 21 sold this year. His second crop brought an average of $110,743 from 35 sold.

Leading the way for Constitution was Hip 904, a filly out of the unraced Candy Ride mare Candy Fortune who sold to Solis/Litt for $725,000. The filly is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Hog Creek Hustle and Grade 3-placed stakes winner Majestic Dunhill.

The biggest year-to-year jump in average in terms of dollars was Into Mischief, who firmly established himself as a top-tier commercial sire, with 57 yearlings sold for an average of $445,632 – the second-highest average of the sale behind Medaglia d'Oro at $599,722. The resident of Spendthrift Farm achieved a 30.72 percent increase from last year, when he had 70 yearlings average $340,900.

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PR Special Keeneland September: The Best Of Book 2

CLICK HERE TO READ THIS EDITION OF THE PR SPECIAL

The Keeneland September Yearling Sale has rolled into Book 2, and the Paulick Report is back with another issue of the PR Special newsletter.

This time around, bloodstock editor Joe Nevills counts down the 20 greatest graduates from Keeneland September's second book sold since 2010. The list includes future Hall of Famers, champions, classic winners, and global superstars, all of whom went through the ring after the magnifying glass of Book 1 had been put away.

Airdrie Stud's Cormac Breathnach discusses Summer Front, whose first foals are 3-year-olds of 2020, in this edition's Stallion Spotlight. Then, Nevills examines the newcomers in the pages of Book 2 in Young Sire Watch.

CLICK HERE TO READ THIS EDITION OF THE PR SPECIAL

Thanks as always to our sponsors for making this edition of the PR Special possible. Your support is crucial to the functioning of our publication.

CLICK HERE TO READ THIS EDITION OF THE PR SPECIAL

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The Road to the Kentucky Derby…Sort Of…

This intrepid TDN correspondent has just spent the better part of 10 days on a road to the Kentucky Derby.

Well, not exactly THE road to the Kentucky Derby. Rather, a long road trip from Los Angeles to Lexington via some of the country’s most awe-inspiring national parks and monuments, arriving in the Bluegrass State a week before the Derby. The reason? To deliver to the doyen of XBTV, Zoe Cadman, her beloved RV, “Burt.”

What follows is an account of this American odyssey. A story of toxic algae and sandstone cathedrals. Nose bleeds and rhinestone rivers. Slasher the bear-killing feline and sage advice from one of Kentucky’s sharpest bloodstock gurus.

Zion National Park

If you’ve ever wondered what the inimical delights of being roasted alive feel like, I strongly recommend the largely desert trek from Los Angeles to Utah’s Zion National Park in triple digit heat. In what should be an abject lesson in crass stupidity, yours truly, disbelieving the 112 degrees Fahrenheit sign flashing on the RV dashboard, decided to stick his head out the window to “test the waters,” only for the flesh begin to begin sliding off his skull like a well-boiled chicken.

Zion turned out to be just as toasty, but while much of the drive to Zion has a distinctly Breaking Bad feel about it–especially the brief gasoline stop on the fringes of Las Vegas–Zion has much to take the mind off the open oven door, not least of all the vast snaking Canyon slicing through the middle, which is really quite lovely-not just lovely. Breathtakingly stunning. Great hulking cathedrals of sandstone jut into the sky, some as old as 2 million years, that turn all sorts of purples, reds and oranges as the sun rises and sets, before providing a shadowy backdrop to a crystal-bright sea of stars. That night, the Milky Way was as clear as I’d ever seen it.

No relief to be had in the Virgin River this year | Getty Images

Our campsite, the Watchman campground near the park outskirts, is mountain flanked on all sides with the cool, refreshing Virgin River running through the middle. But this being the annus horribilis of 2020, there was no heat-escaping dip into the waters-this year, this river contains record levels of a murderous little algae called cyanobacteria. Warning signs are posted up and down the river to instill terror into the heart of wilting campers, and while park rangers reassure visitors that no one really knows just how this little devil operates, one toggled ranger told me all I needed to know: “I ain’t going in there,” he said, with a leery grin.

Alas, with only one evening in Zion, there was little time to strike out and explore. One popular Zion destination seems to be “The Narrows,” a scenic portion on the other end of the park. We had time only to hike the Pa’rus Trail at a wide-floored section of the canyon beyond Watchman, which dances with long shadows as the sun yawns over the canyon lip. And then it was time to leave-northwards, to the Montana portion of Yellowstone…

Rainbow Point and Yellowstone National Park

I’m sure I’m not alone in this, but on long road trips, I find myself staring at the countryside wondering whether any of the passing properties would make good training centers. You know the deal: nice green pastures, plenty of room for airy barns, and the most important thing of all, long climbing stretches that can be transformed into seamless gallops.

I can safely say that at no point between Zion and Yellowstone was I convinced that I’d discovered the next Ballydoyle.

In southern Montana, Rainbow Point is a small campground a short stop outside of the town of West Yellowstone–a delightful little place that hides all of its charms when approached late in the evening after a nine-hour slog of a drive. It’s in the middle of thick woodland, and a twilight drive through this gloomy morass evokes the stories of Nathanial Hawthorne-all witches and black magic and young men of questionable virtue meeting sticky ends.

Rainbow Point campground is presided over by O.G. (Old Guy), The Grizz (O.G.s lovely wife), and their liberally fed cat, Slasher, the size of a beer keg. According to O.G. who signed us in that dusky evening, The Grizz is thus called on account of her morning coffee requirements, potentially combustible if not satisfied promptly. When I asked to meet Slasher, staring longingly at us through a screen door, O.G. shook his head, regretfully: “Slasher protects us from the bears,” he said. “If I open the door, she’ll be gone, and then there’ll be no Grizzlies left alive in this neck of the woods.”

O.G. has a touch of Captain Ahab about him, only with two working pins and a keen, knowing eye as though he’s spent a lifetime on the high seas. When I asked O.G. if there’s anywhere outside of Yellowstone that’s a must-see, he peered at me through bushy eyebrows and suggested Quake Lake, just down the road, created in a landslide during the earthquake of 1959, when as many as 21 people were buried alive. I thanked O.G. for the uplifting suggestion, assured him we’d sleep on it, then made our way to the campsite to be assaulted by an army of Velociraptor-like mosquitoes.

Luckily, Rainbow Point’s lakeside charms become evident during the day, and the mosquitoes, having had their fill of human blood at night, take a well-earned siesta. The lake doubles as a water-sport enthusiast’s playground. If you’re seeking activities of a more earthbound kind, however, the vast wonderland of Yellowstone is a mere 30 minutes away. Because of the wildfires skirting the park, many of the roads leading to the best day-hikes were closed, but ample recompense appeared in the form of a long hike to Observation Peak-a rocky, mountainous climb of nearly 10,000 ft to stunning 360-degree views of the park.

Sunset over the Madison River, Yellowstone National Park | Getty Images

The first part of the hike is a gentle stroll through shady woodland and sunny meadow to Cascade Lake, a great, glistening sapphire bejeweled with pearly white swans-very pleasant, as long as you don’t suffer a Niagara-like nosebleed with only a mask to stem the flow. When this same blood-soaked rag was subsequently employed on occasion during the hike, I had to reassure startled passers-by that I was neither COVID positive nor consumptive.

Later that evening, drunk on the views, exhausted, sore and with less blood in my body than a granite boulder, we returned to Burt only to be met by a cat’s chorus of a broken and manic carbon monoxide alarm. These things are harder to disable than the Fort Knox security system, let me tell you, and respond angrily to kicks and stick beatings.

Our last full day at Yellowstone was spent ogling the steaming geysers before we took to the Madison River–one of the secluded turn-offs perfect for pitching up a chair and grabbing a handful of cold beers as the sun disappears behind the mountains. The river appears different at different times of the day. In the bright sunshine of the early morning, it looks like great armfuls of rhinestones have been scattered across the top. In the setting sun of late evening, it’s as though a massive vat of molten gold has been tipped into the waters, melting away down river.

Black Hills National Forest

If you don’t want to leave Yellowstone, the journey from there to the Black Hills National Forest in South Dakota can seem quite the drag. Uneventful, too. Though it does throw-up the odd question. For example, does the flashing sign saying “Branding Day” hanging from the middle school in the small Wyoming town of Moorcroft refer to the cattle or the school children themselves?
We arrived in South Dakota late in the evening. The snaking drive through the moors-like Wind Cave National Park was guided in part by the large dark silhouettes of bison grazing the roadside, like fat ghosts in the pale moonlight. Our first destination was a remote campsite on Cold Creek Lake-perfectly serviceable (despite the night-time slasher movie vibe), and not a patch on the Oreville campsite where we stayed the subsequent two days.

Nestled in the mountains, Oreville is a private, quiet little hideaway, perfect for pitching a tent, with tall thick hedges between sites. It’s also pretty central to the sorts of places and things you’d want to cram into two short days, like a trail ride in the shadow of the Buckhorn Mountain.

It’s very close to Mount Rushmore, which is perfectly nice ‘n all, but it still can’t compare to the majesty of the valleys, forests, canyons and mountains surrounding it. We stumbled upon the Centennial Trail-a 111-mile hike that spans Wind Cave National Park to Bear Butte State Park, encompassing everything in between, down valley side and up craggy hill, over railway lines and through quiet meadows scattered with lazy deer as the sun sets over the surrounding Black Hills.

The rather wary and taciturn campground host–a trainer in another life–said something the first day that seemed rather prophetic: “We’ve got a saying here: ‘If you don’t like the weather in South Dakota, just give it minute.'” And so it proved the last night, when in the early hours, echoes of distant thunder reverberated around the canyon. Not long after, a lightning storm hovered directly above, producing an electric lightshow that sparked for half an hour, during which time, hail pulmmeled the roof like stirrup irons flung from out of space.

By the time we left the next morning, the storm had passed, leaving in its wake the steaming Black Hills forests draped in mist, which makes a dramatic backdrop to the old western saloon labelled the “Degenerate Slide Headquarters.”

South Dakota to Lexington

What’s to say about the two-day marathon trek from South Dakota to Marette Farrell’s Lexington abode? Thanks to the giant chopping boards of Iowa and Missouri, I almost became a flat-earther. Luckily, Kentucky has much more to offer in the way of hills and dale–all very novel, especially when it’s your first-ever visit to the Bluegrass state (I’m ashamed to say).

In one day, Ms. Farrell, our trusty host, led a best-of whirlwind visit of a number of farms, which included the homes of some old California friends. At Lane’s End–thank you Alys Emson for the guided tour–City of Light looked happy as a clam (though a tantalizing glimpse of Accelerate and Catalina Cruiser’s empty stalls mean I’ll just have to come again to see those former denizens of the West Coast). At Airdrie Stud, Pacific Classic winner Collected looked burly and satisfied and slathered in mud. Not to be ignored, Creative Cause put on a gymnastics display with a distinct Simone Biles-like flair. (See Marrette Farrell’s video below).

And then it was over. Odyssey complete. Burt remains in Lexington ready for Ms. Cadman’s return journey (and rid of any bad juju, thanks to an airing with sage on the sage advice of Marette). Yours truly, however, is now back in California, itching to get back on the road again…

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Reinvestment Risk Impressive In Saratoga Debut For Freshman Sire Upstart

Reinvestment Risk, trained by four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown for Seth Klarman's Klaravich Stables, romped to a 7 3/4-length score in a six-furlong maiden sprint on the main track in Saturday's first race at Saratoga in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

A $280,000 purchase at the OBS March Sale of Two-Year-Olds in Training, Reinvestment Risk won geared down at the finish, earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. He is the second winner from the first crop of foals sired by Upstart, a son of the A.P. Indy stallion Flatter standing at Brereton C. Jones' Airdrie Stud in Midway, Ky.

Out of the Candy Ride mare Ridingwiththedevil, Reinvestment Risk wintered at Payson Park in Florida before shipping north to Monmouth Park for continued preparation. The precocious bay arrived at Saratoga in mid-July and breezed twice on the main track including a five-eighths work from the gate in 59.89 on July 26 ahead of his eye-opening win.

“He ran super. He trained super all spring down at Monmouth with my assistant Luis Cabrera, who had the horse early on,” said Brown. “We transferred him up here and we've always liked him. Our team here did a fantastic job with him. Mike Ryan, my partner in all our bloodstock work, picked him out from the De Meric consignment, another farm we use a lot. Everyone that's touched the horse or been involved with him has raved about him, so I'm happy he lived up to that on his debut.”

Brown said the Grade 1, $250,000 Runhappy Hopeful, a seven-furlong sprint on Closing Day, September 7 could be in the cards.

“You'd sure think so,” said Brown. “If he comes out of the race well and especially having a race over the track, it looks like we'd have enough time between starts. I'll talk to Mr. Klarman about it. It's always exciting to have a nice 2-year-old.”

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