Racing’s Crystal Ball: How TDN Europe Predicts 2023 To Play Out

A large part of the fun that comes with following racing and the bloodstock game is predicting the future. Who will win the Derby? Who might top the Orby Sale? What freshman sires are here to stay and which ones will drift into the abyss?

Well, we've looked deep into the TDN Europe crystal ball for 2023 to see if we can come up with the answers to the burning questions for the year ahead. Enjoy!

January

If you think he had a good Christmas, wait until you see how January goes for Willie Mullins. This is the month where Ireland's dominant jumps trainer ramps up a gear, highlighted by Energumene's deadly performance in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Can anyone stop Energumene–or Mullins for that matter–at Cheltenham?

Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott appears to have his own festival banker in the shape of Mares' Novice Hurdle hotpot Halka Du Tabert, who makes light work of her rivals in the Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. 

Guess who features among this race's roll of honour? None other than Honeysuckle and Minella Melody. Could the torch be passed to fellow Kenny Alexander-owned Halka Du Tabert?

February

Reassuring figures are recorded at one of the first big Flat sales of the new year, the February Sale, where multiple lots sell for six figures. Maybe 2022 wasn't a dream after all. 

Willie Mullins once again dominates at the Dublin Racing Festival where Honeysuckle's bid for a four-timer in the Irish Champion Hurdle is foiled by State Man, who now appears the chief Irish challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. 

Galopin Des Champs dazzles in the Irish Gold Cup, but will he stay the extra two furlongs up the punishing hill at Cheltenham?

March

Did somebody say Flat racing? Aidan O'Brien opens the gates at Ballydoyle to the Irish press and Brendan O'Rourke is back in search of the next two-year-old star to follow this season. “He's by No Nay Never, Brendan. Big Little something, I think he's called,” says Aidan. “A fiver or a tenner,” asks Brendan. 

Constitution Hill proves worthy of all of the hype in the Champion Hurdle by beating Honeysuckle, who runs a tremendous race in the first-time cheekpieces. 

It's easy-as-you-like for Energumene in the Champion Chase but there's a surprise in the Stayers' Hurdle as Ahoy Senor, re-routed from the Gold Cup, denies Flooring Porter a third straight triumph.

It's a one-two-three for team Mullins in the Gold Cup, but it's Emmet who takes the top honours, not his uncle Willie, as Noble Yeats out-battles Galopin Des Champs with Stattler running an eye-catching race with a view towards the Grand National back in third. 

The recently-returned Oisin Murphy shines at the Dubai World Cup meeting. Meanwhile, industry stakeholders begin to get a foothold on what's required for the Dubai Breeze-up Sale as solid trade is recorded. 

April

Don't say you weren't told. Stattler does a Hedgehunter by building on a cracking effort in the Gold Cup to secure Grand National glory at the main expense of Lifetime Ambition. 

Oh yes. We're back, baby. The breeze-up circus gets going with a bang as the international buyers turn out in force for the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale. Tally-Ho Stud sells the top lot, a Kodiac colt, to Peter and Ross Doyle for high six figures. 

Will he or won't he? The build-up to the Craven S. revolves around whether leading 2000 Guineas contender Chaldean will take in a prep or head straight to the Classic. In the end, Andrew Balding elects to sidestep the Craven, describing himself as delighted with Chaldean's condition at home on the gallops. 

May

No prep run? No problem. Balding's decision to go straight to the 2000 Guineas with Chaldean pays off in spades as he romps home at Newmarket. Little Big Bear fails to get involved but Auguste Rodin finishes a fine second for Aidan O'Brien, who goes on to win the 1000 Guineas with Meditate. 

In Chaldean's absence, Little Big Bear justifies O'Brien's faith in the colt's ability to see out the mile as he makes light work of the opposition in the Irish 2,000 Guineas while Dermot Weld's Tahiyra shows a blistering turn of foot to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

It's that man again. Willie Browne tops the Arqana breeze-up sale with a colt sourced in America the previous autumn. 

June

Aidan O'Brien wins the Oaks with a filly who failed to win as a two-year-old while the Guineas runner-up Auguste Rodin takes the step up to 1m4f in his stride by running out one of the most impressive Derby winners for some time. 

It's a week for the first-season sires at Royal Ascot as colts by Ten Sovereigns and Soldier's Call win the Coventry and Norfolk S. respectively while an Inns Of Court filly lands the Queen Mary S. 

Kyprios runs out one of the most impressive winners of the week to take his second Gold Cup. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Sakheer dazzles in the Commonwealth Cup, once again advertising the prowess of breeze-up handler Willie Browne. 

Back at the Curragh, Aidan O'Brien records a record-extending 15th Irish Derby triumph.

July

Auguste Rodin had the option of bidding for the Derby double at the Curragh but he proves himself to be equally as adept back over 10f in bolstering the good record that three-year-olds have in the Coral-Eclipse S. at Sandown. 

Remember him? Desert Crown makes his long awaited return to the track in the King George at Ascot but he is no match for Vadeni who appears a much stronger horse this year and sees the trip out well.  

The demand for horses with good ratings remains strong at the July Sale at Tattersalls while, on the track, Sakheer follows up his brilliant display at Royal Ascot with a red-hot performance in the July Cup. 

August

After running a number of classy races against the boys, Dramatised causes something of a surprise for local owner Steve Parkin and trainer Karl Burke in the Nunthorpe S. at York.

September 

He never managed to win the St Leger as a jockey but he does it as a trainer. Step forward Donnacha O'Brien. Proud And Regal, indeed.

Goffs captures the imagination with its latest incentive to attract buyers and vendors alike to the Orby, which continues to go from strength to strength. A number of New Bay and Mehmas colts sell nicely while Saxon Warrior hardens his reputation as a coming force in the stallion ranks with his progeny selling for notable sums.

October 

No match for Alpinista 12 months ago, Vadeni wins the Arc from stablemate Al Hakeem with Bay Bridge keeping on best for third.

Book 1 does not disappoint at Tattersalls with 10 lots breaking the million gns mark, including Philip Stauffenberg's Kingman half-brother to Skitter Scatter, who he picked up for €550,000 at Goffs the previous November. 

But the top lot is a 3 million gns colt consigned by Watership Down and it sells to Mick Donohoe, bidding on his iPad for Yulong, with MV Magnier and Anthony Stroud pushing him all the way. 

The weather Gods do not look kindly on British Champions Day as the meeting is a washout and the testing ground throws up a number of surprise results. 

November 

It's a first Melbourne Cup victory for Willie Mullins as Champion Hurdle also-ran Vauban builds on his Queen Alexandra S. victory at Royal Ascot to take the race that stops a nation.

Nothing can separate Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby once again at the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita as both men send out five winners apiece. Special mention to Modern Games, who secures his third Breeders' Cup triumph and second Breeders' Cup Mile success. 

December

There must be something in the water. Tally-Ho Stud clinches its third first-season sire championship in four years as Inns Of Court does what Mehmas and Cotai Glory did before him by producing the goods with his first crop of runners. It was an incredibly-strong year for the freshman sires with Soldier's Call, Ten Sovereigns, Too Darn Hot, Advertise and Blue Point achieving plenty.

Some extra dates are added to the farewell tour as Frankie Dettori announces his decision to continue his riding career for another season. 

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12 Questions: Kevin Philippart de Foy

First job in the Thoroughbred industry?

I started riding for Stephane Cerulis during the summer holidays back in Belgium when I was aged 14.

Biggest influence on your career?

Criquette Head. She is like a second mum, the best advisor and most importantly she made me fall in love with training.

Favourite racehorse of all time, and why?

Treve. I was lucky enough to ride her while she was in training which was a fantastic experience.

Who will be champion first-season sire in 2023?

Blue Point.

Greatest race in the world?

Being born on the continent, I have to put the Arc on par with The Derby.

If you could be someone else in the industry for a day who would it be, and why?

Aidan O'Brien. I have been fascinated by him since I was young, and his track record speaks for itself.

Emerging talent in the industry (human)?

Tegan Clarke and Ellie Whittaker at WC Equine in Newmarket. They have broken and pre-trained several horses for me since I started training and have consigned some breeze-ups with great success.

Name a horse TDN should have made a Rising Star, and didn't?

Vadeni.

Under-the-radar stallion?

Cotai Glory.

Friday night treat?

A glass of red (preferably Bordeaux) with my girlfriend and the dog.

Guilty pleasure outside racing?

Eating. I'm a massive fan of good food.

Race I wish I'd been there for…

Alpinista winning the Arc this year. I watched it in the green room at Tattersalls and the atmosphere was amazing. I can only imagine what it must have been like on course. A well-deserved result for a great team.

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Champion NH Sire And Classic Winner Milan Passes At 24

Classic hero Milan (GB) (Sadler's Wells–Kithanga {Ire}, by Darshaan {GB}), died at Grange Stud on Wednesday, Dec. 21, Coolmore announced on Thursday. The 2019/20 Champion National Hunt Sire was 24.

“Milan was a very good-natured horse and will be sadly missed by everyone here,” said Catherine Magnier. “He was a wonderful servant providing top class horses year in year out.”

Bred by Fittocks Stud, Milan was bought by Demi O'Byrne for 650,000gns as a yearling at Tattersalls in 1999, and joined Aidan O'Brien's yard. Racing for Michael Tabor, he won his only start at the Curragh at two in 2000, and was third in the 2001 G1 Prix Lupin in his second appearance at three. Back on top in the G2 Great Voltigeur S. at York three starts later, the son of G3 St. Simon S. heroine Kithanga was a five-length winner of Doncaster's G1 St. Leger next out. Unplaced in Sakhee (Bahri)'s G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, the half-brother to fellow St. Simon S. heroine Koora (GB) (Pivotal {GB}) was second to Fantastic Light (Rahy) in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf at Belmont in October. Injured in his lone start at four, he was retired with a mark of 10-3-2-1 and $991,814 in earnings.

Covering mares at Grange Stud beginning in 2004, Milan left Champion Hurdle hero Jezki (Ire), and Christmas Hurdle winner Darlan (GB). His top chasers are legion and include Santini (GB), Monalee (Ire), Apache Stronghold (Ire), and 2017 G3 Grand National scorer One For Arthur (Ire) among others. Milan's daughter Marie's Rock (Ire) starred in March's G1 Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham and backed that effort up with another top-level score in the Coolmore Kew Gardens Irish EBF Mares Champion Hurdle at Punchestown this April. Of his 105 black-type performers, he sired 38 graded winners in the National Hunt sphere.

From the extended family of dual Derby hero Kahyasi (Ire) (Ile De Bourbon), several of Milan's daughters are black-type producers, with Coney Island (Ire) (Flemensfirth) and Skyace (Ire) (Westerner {GB}) both Grade 1 winners, the former over fences and the latter over hurdles.

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Hong Kong’s ‘Golden’ Boy On the Verge of More History

His 22 career victories is an all-time record in Hong Kong racing history. His HK$116 million (£12.2 million/US$14.7 million) in career earnings makes him not only the richest racehorse to look through a bridle in the Special Administrative Region, but also one of the richest Thoroughbreds, ever. Stanley Chan's Golden Sixty (Aus) (Medaglia d'Oro) can make even more history this Sunday when he starts a long odds-on proposition in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Mile, a victory in which will tie Good Ba Ba (Lear Fan) with three straight wins at the Longines Hong Kong International Races meeting.

While he may have fallen just short of equaling the great Silent Witness (Aus)'s mark of 17 wins in a row when defeated in the G1 Stewards' Cup and G1 Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup last winter, he has since roared back and enters the three-peat attempt off a fast-finishing score over the pace-advantaged California Spangle (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) in the G2 Jockey Club Mile Nov. 20. The latter, a €150,000 Goffs Orby acquisition for the connections of two-time Hong Kong Cup hero California Memory (Highest Honor {Fr}), was 3-5 to Golden Sixty's even-money in the Jockey Club Mile, and was given every conceivable chance by Zac Purton, only to be run down late. He faces the champ at level weights this time, but is the lone speed and must be caught.

A Japanese contingent headed by Schnell Meister (Ger) (Kingman {GB}) and Danon Scorpion (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}), winners of the last two runnings of the age-restricted G1 NHK Mile Cup, stand in his way, but the connections of Golden Sixty have every reason to approach the three-peat attempt with supreme confidence.

“He's okay after the last run and, at the moment, I just try to keep him happy,” said trainer Francis Lui. “He's healthy, happy and is character is just the same. To me, I think he is a special horse. You can see every time, he just wants to pass a horse in front of him.”

 

 

 

Japan Can Cap Magical Season at Sha Tin

Even by its lofty standards, the 2022 racing season has been a landmark one for Japanese gallopers that have been sent overseas.

It all got started at King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Riyadh on the last Saturday of February, when Team Japan posted four victories on the G1 Saudi Cup undercard. Four weeks later at sprawling Meydan Racecourse, they somehow managed to top that incredible feat when no fewer than five horses got their pictures taken. It may not have gone swimmingly at places like Royal Ascot and Goodwood over the late spring and summer, and the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe remains the impossible dream–for now, at least–but Japan has realistic chances in three of the four races Sunday afternoon, none more so than the day's most valuable prize, the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup.

Panthalassa (Jpn), whose sire Lord Kanaloa (Jpn) was a breathtaking two-time winner of the Sprint, was one of the aforementioned scorers in Dubai, dead-heating with Lord North (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the G1 Dubai Turf and he figures no worse than the second betting favourite Sunday.

The 5-year-old may have found the 11 furlongs of the G1 Takarazuka Kinen a task too tall in June, but he was exceptionally game in second in his two most recent efforts–both from the front–first behind Jack d'Or (Jpn) (Maurice {Jpn}) after a fight in the G2 Sapporo Kinen and when given a bold ride in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn), opening up by as many as 15 lengths before just failing to hold off the talented Equinox (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn}). Panthlassa will look to channel his inner A Shin Hikari (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}, all-the-way winner of the 2015 Cup, but Jack d'Or could be the fly in the ointment if he, too, is asked to roll forward for Yutaka Take. Japan has won the last three Cups and five of the last seven.

 

 

Should a contested pace materialize, Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) looks the most likely beneficiary. Purchased for 300,000gns out of the 2019 Tattersalls October Sale by the Hong Kong Jockey Club team led by Mick Kinane and the current pin-up horse for the Hong Kong International Sale, last year's BMW Hong Derby and G1 FWD QE II Cup winner overcame an interrupted preparation with a victory over Tourbillon Diamond (Aus) (Olympic Glory {Ire}) in the G2 BOCHK Jockey Club Cup Nov. 20.

“He's definitely going to be there when whips are cracking,” said jockey James McDonald, who was honored as the Longines World's Best Jockey Friday evening. “It's a very competitive Hong Kong Cup and he has to come up to another level taking on the Japanese but I'm sure he can.”

Order of Australia (Ire) (Australia {GB}), who took the 2020 GI Breeders' Cup Mile at cricket-score odds, won this year's G3 Minstrel S. (1400m) and was placed in the G1 Queen Anne S., G1 Prix du Moulin and GI Coolmore Turf Mile. Connections nevertheless opt for the Cup over a trip he has not tackled in over two years.

“He's been running all the time over a mile but we always thought stepping up over a mile and a quarter would improve him more,” trainer Aidan O'Brien said. “He's obviously by Australia and we're very happy with him, we'll see what happens on Sunday.

“He has won over seven furlongs twice as well, so we kept him at a mile after the Breeders' Cup win, but we'd think there's a pretty good chance that [2000m] will be fine.”

Hong Kong Hard To Go Past in Sprint

If the Japanese have been a problem too tough to solve in the Cup, the home team has nearly totally dominated the G1 Longines Hong Kong Sprint. In the 23 renewals of the race dating back to 1999, on just six occasions have foreign horses launched a successful raid and only once in the last 11 years with Danon Smash (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) in 2020.

Last year's Hong Kong champion sprinter Wellington (Aus) (All Too Hard {Aus}) was badly hampered by the spill in last year's Sprint won by Sky Field (Aus) (Deep Field {Aus}), but recovered to close the season with a successful defence of his crown in the G1 Chairman's Sprint Prize. The 6-year-old returned as the 135-pound topweight in the G2 Premier Bowl H. Oct. 23 and gave the progressive Lucky Sweynesse (NZ) (Sweynesse {Aus}) 11 pounds and a one-length beating. The latter turned the tables last time in the G2 BOCHK Jockey Club Sprint, but Wellington was found to be lame thereafter and has since been passed fit to run. Ryan Moore subs in on Wellington for the injured Alexis Badel.

“I have strong feelings for Alexis Badel,” Gibson said. “It's a very big day for him to miss. He's got a very good relationship with Wellington. He understands the horse very well, so my thoughts are with him but obviously delighted to call on Ryan's expertise and experience for the big one.”

Moore was aboard Danon Smash from the 14 hole two years ago.

The 2022 Japanese challenge is spearheaded by the winners of the nation's two Group 1 sprints. Naran Huleg (Jpn) (Gold Allure {Jpn}) rallied furiously to just take out the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in the spring, while Gendarme (Kitten's Joy) belied odds of nearly 20-1 from close range in the G1 Sprinters' S. Oct. 2.

Singapore adds a bit more international flavour to the meeting and is represented by Lim's Kosciuszko (Aus) (Kermadec {NZ}), winner of 11 from 14 at home, including the country's signature sprint test, the Lion City Cup in August, and he was versatile enough to win a Singapore Derby (1800m) prior to that effort.

 

 

 

Vase Sets The Table

The G1 Longines Hong Kong Vase for the middle-distance set has attracted a two-time champion and an interesting collection of European shippers to face a somewhat suspect group of locals.

Glory Vase (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) doesn't make too many trips to the races and seems to save his best for Sha Tin. The 4-5 favourite when accounting for Pyledriver (GB) (Harbour Watch {Ire}) last December, having won the Vase for the first time two years prior, the 7-year-old was eighth to Shahryar (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March and was a fair sixth to Jack d'Or in the Sapporo Kinen. He will benefit from the extra 400 metres and has the services of Joao Moreira, who also rides Lei Papale (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in the Cup and Resistencia (Jpn) (Daiwa Major {Jpn}) in the Sprint in what is expected to be his final day in the saddle in Hong Kong.

Of the Euros, Stone Age (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) owns the single most important piece of recent form, having run second to Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Turf Nov. 5. A likely pacesetter from the inside gate, the 3-year-old is one of two for Aidan O'Brien, who also saddles the well-traveled Broome (Ire) (Australia {GB}).

“We were delighted with him in the Breeders' Cup, he ran a very good race and had progressed from his previous run at Ascot,” O'Brien said of Stone Age. “We've been happy with everything we've seen from him since then. It had been on my mind to go to Hong Kong since after the Breeders' Cup, we thought the track, trip and ground should all suit him fine, we're all looking forward to it.”

Making his first visit to Hong Kong, Broome was an impressive winner of the G2 Hardwicke S. at Royal Ascot, and has since made fruitless appearances back at Ascot, Saratoga, Leopardstown, ParisLongchamp and Keeneland, where he was five lengths' sixth in the Breeders' Cup.

“We had it in our heads that we might go to the [G1 Longines] Japan Cup, it just came maybe a week or two too early and that's why we waited. We were delighted to have the opportunity to come to Hong Kong with him. He's in good form and is a very good natured, very sound horse,” explained O'Brien, who has won the Vase twice with Highland Reel (Ire) and most recently with Mogul (GB) two years ago.

Mendocino (Ger) (Adlerflug {Ger}) upset last year's Arc winner Torquator Tasso (Ger) (Adlerflug {Ger}) in the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden in September, but did not get through the deep ground in Paris when 12th in the Arc. The chestnut can go better on a sounder surface this weekend, provided he is on his best behaviour.

Bubble Gift (Fr) (Nathaniel {Ire}) is winless from five this season, but has run with credit, including a close third to future Arc heroine Alpinista (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. Trainer Mikel Delzangles won the 2011 Vase with Dunaden (Fr). Botanik (Ire) (Golden Horn {GB}) represents Godolphin France and Andre Fabre and owns a victory over Saudi and Dubai winner Stay Foolish (Jpn) (Stay Gold {Jpn}) in the G2 Grand Prix de Deauville this past August.

THE PICKS:

CupPanthalassa will be winging it, but I expect Jack d'Or to keep him honest enough. That should give Romantic Warrior a fair shot at them late.

Mile–Not trying to beat Golden Sixty, especially from a favourable draw. Schnell Meister for second?

SprintNaran Huleg will be completely under the radar and probably shouldn't be. Rattled home in both of Japan's Group 1 sprints, good for a smashing win and a third.

Vase–Trying Mendocino, who was all heart to beat the Arc winner at Iffezheim and even has a close second to Alpinista going back. Must handle the quicker ground, but rates a chance. Glory Vase clearly the one to beat at his favourite track.

 

 

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