Affirmative Lady | Horse Racing Free Tips

The Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Lack of Points Have Big Names on Outside Looking In

The last of the prep races for the GI Kentucky Oaks have been run, which means we have a pretty good idea who will be in the starting gate come May 5 in a race that is limited to 14 starters. As of now, you need 50 points to make the field, which is not good news for a handful of fillies who once looked like locks to make the race. Last year's 2-year-old filly champion, Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief), who held the top spot in this poll for several weeks, has 48 points and is 15th on the list. She needs just one defection to get in. Other notable fillies not among the top 14 are Julia Shining (Curlin), Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) and Punchbowl (Uncle Mo). They are 17th, 18th and 19th, respectively, in the points standings. Since none of these horses are guaranteed to race in the Oaks they have been left off of our Top 10, the last for this year.

1) WET PAINT (f, Blame–Sky Painter, by Street Cry {Ire})

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $689,000. Last Start: Won GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Oaks Points: 170.

Wet Paint didn't run last weekend, but her status as the Oaks favorite was nonetheless solidified. Defining Purpose (Cross Traffic) won the GI Ashland over Punchbowl, Julia Shining and Wonder Wheel. That's the same Defining Purpose who was sixth, beaten five lengths, by Wet Paint in the GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn and was third behind Wet Paint in the Martha Washington S. With Faiza (Girvin), an easy winner of the GII Santa Anita Oaks, passing on the Kentucky Oaks, Wet Paint is your obvious favorite for trainer Brad Cox. She swept Oaklawn's series of Kentucky Oaks preps and was a handy winner each time. She has been beaten on the turf and on a synthetic surface, but never on the dirt. As good as Cox is overall, his biggest strength seems to be with developing fillies. If she runs her race, it may be a battle for second.

2) BOTANICAL (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Daisy, by Blame)

O-LNJ Foxwoods & Clearsky Farms. B-Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $220,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 6-4-1-0, $374,410. Last Start: Won the Bourbonette S. at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.

Another filly from the Brad Cox barn, she's been a terror on the Tapeta track at Turfway Park, where she romped in four straight races. Can she transfer that form to the dirt? Cox has said he will know more after she has had a couple of works at Churchill Downs. She had her first Churchill work on Apr. 7 and breezed four furlongs in :49.20. She has tactical speed and has won two of her last three in gate-to-wire fashion. But she can also sit off the pace, which she did in the Cincinnati Trophy S., where she was third early. If she runs as well on the dirt as she did on the synthetic surface at Turfway she should be right there.

3) SOUTHLAWN (f, Pioneerof the Nile–Mo d'Amour, by Uncle Mo)

O-Robert Masterson. B-WinStar Farm (Ky). T-Norm Casse. Sales history: $290,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-0-0, $318,369. Last Start: Won the GII Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.

At one point it appeared that one of the storylines for the Oaks could be a father-versus-son showdown between Hall of Famer Mark Casse and his son, Norm. But with Mark Casse's Wonder Wheel having struggled this year, it may be left up to the younger Casse to carry the banner for the family. Not that Norm isn't a very good trainer in his own right. With 29 percent winners this year, he's never been hotter. After serving as his father's assistant, he went out on his own in 2018. Southlawn has won two straight, including the GII Fair Grounds Oaks, and can give Casse the biggest win of his young career.

4) PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-1, $501,310. Last Start: 2nd GII Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 103.

She was no match for Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks, where she finished second, 3 1/4 lengths behind her rival. Not that it was a bad race. This filly has never run worse than third and is as consistent as any horse in the division. She'll show up on May 5. She's also a two-time winner at Churchill. Trainer Brendan Walsh has never had a Kentucky Oaks or GI Kentucky Derby winner and is also winless in the Breeders' Cup, but his stable is getting better and bigger every year and it seems like only a matter of time until he has the breakthrough win.

5) DEFINING PURPOSE (f, Cross Traffic–Defining Hope, by Strong Hope)

O-Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek), Colette VanMatre & Hames Ball. B-Colette VanMatre (Ky). T-Kenny McPeek. Lifetime Record: 7-3-0-1, $543,688. Last Start: Won the GI Ashland S. at Keeneland Apr. 7. Kentucky Oaks Points: 107.

Never count out trainer Kenny McPeek. He's never afraid to throw a longshot into a big race and has won dozens of stakes when few gave him a chance. That was the case with Defining Purpose in the Ashland, where she was 20-1 for a reason. She was coming off a blah performance in the GIII Honeybee S. and, before that, finished third as the even-money favorite in the Martha Washington. She's 0-for-2 against Wet Paint, so it's hard to make a case that she can beat her. But stranger things have happened, especially when it comes to a horse who appears to be on the improve. Note that Brian Hernandez, Jr. rode both Defining Purpose and Pretty Mischievous in their last races.

6) AFFIRMATIVE LADY (f, Arrogate–Stiffed, by Stephen Got Even)

O-AMO Racing USA. B-Alastar Thoroughbred Co., LLC (Ky). T-H. G. Motion. Sales history: $210,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $400,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-2, $270,568. Last Start: Won GII Gulfstream Park Oaks Apr. 1. Kentucky Oaks Points: 110.

From day one, Graham Motion has campaigned this horse like she was something special. After losses in back-to-back maiden races at the start of her career, Motion had her in the GII Demoiselle S., where she lost by just a neck to Julia Shining. It was back in another stakes, the Busanda S., where she finished third. Finally, in her fifth career start, she landed in a maiden at Gulfstream, which she won. The GII Gulfstream Park Oaks was next and, with a two-length win, she earned her way into the Kentucky Oaks field. The Gulfstream race didn't come up particularly strong, so she'll have to prove herself against tougher company at Churchill.

7) GAMBLING GIRL (f, Dialed In–Tulipmania, by Empire Maker)

O-Repole Stable. B-Gallagher's Stud (NY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $200,000 yrl '21 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 9-2-2-2, $257,410. Last Start: 2nd GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 61.

While Mike Repole's main focus Derby week will come with Forte (Violence), the likely favorite in the first leg of the Triple Crown, it looks like he's got an outside shot of pulling off the Oaks-Derby double with Forte and Gambling Girl. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a chance to become only the fourth trainer to pull off the Oaks-Derby double and the first since Ben Jones, who won the 1952 Oaks with Real Delight and Derby with Hill Gail. Jones also did it in 1949. To do so, Gambling Girl will need to run the race of her life. She flourished much of last year against New York-breds, but has been facing open company since appearing in the Dec. 3 Demoiselle. After two more losses in open company stakes, she was second last weekend in the GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct. That gave her enough points to make the Oaks, but she still needs to prove she can win an open company stakes, where she's 0-for-4 so far.

8) PROMISEHER AMERICA (f, American Pharoah–Promisedyouheaven, by Unbridled's Song)

O-Hoffman Thoroughbreds & Tom F. McCrocklin. B-Robert & Lawana Low (Ky). T-Raymond Handal. Sales History: $75,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $198,138. Last Start: Won GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.

She cost just $75,000 at the Ocala Breeders' Sale Spring sale and was beaten 20 1/2 lengths in her debut in December at Aqueduct. Yet, somehow here she is, an Oaks starter after scoring a massive upset in the Gazelle at 26-1. Underrated trainer Ray Handal must have figured something out because she has improved in every race after her poor showing in her debut and became a stakes winner last Saturday at Aqueduct. She's also gotten better as the races have gotten longer. That said, she beat a weak field in the Gazelle and if she is going to win the Oaks she's going to have to do it as a 30-1 shot.

9) AND TELL ME NO LIES (f, Arrogate–Be Fair, by Exchange Rate)

O-Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd. B-Lara Run LLC (Ky). T-Peter Miller. Sales History: $70,000 yrl '21 KEEJAN; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-3-2-0, $472,800. Last Start: 2nd GII Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.

No better than the second best 3-year-old filly racing on the West Coast as she has finished second behind Faiza in both of her 3-year-old starts. In the Santa Anita Oaks, it wasn't even close as Faiza whipped her by 6 1/2 lengths. These 3-year-old fillies are not a particularly fast bunch and this one, despite her accomplishments, might be the slowest of the group. Her 78 in the Santa Anita Oaks was a career-best Beyer figure and she's only slightly faster than she was last year when she was running in the low to mid-seventies.

10) SHIDABHUTI (f, Practical Joke–A. P. Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg})

O-Peter Brant. B-Gabriel Duignan & Gerry Dilger (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $77,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $310,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-3-0-1, $219,600. Last Start: 3rd in GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 80.

Had a chance to force her way up the list when taking on five others in the Gazelle. She came in undefeated for trainer Chad Brown, but had been racing in largely soft spots. Her Gazelle showing was ok, but just ok. She was third, beaten two lengths. Will have to do much better in the Oaks to be a contender. Wouldn't be the first time Brown got the very most out of a horse he trains, but he really has his work cut out for him with this filly.

The post The Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Lack of Points Have Big Names on Outside Looking In appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Affirmative Lady Launches AMO Racing’s U.S. Operation

The GII Gulfstream Park Oaks brought a new contestant into the GI Kentucky Oaks picture in victress Affirmative Lady. The connections of the blossoming daughter of Arrogate are newcomers not only to the Oaks trail, but to racing in the U.S. After launching its American stable two years ago, AMO Racing celebrated its first graded stakes win in the States with Affirmative Lady's score on Saturday.

Founded by football agent and businessman Kia Joorabchian, AMO Racing has proven to be a force on the other side of the Atlantic in recent years. Top performers are led by last year's G2 July S. winner Persian Force (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}), who is new to stud at Tally-Ho Stud this year, plus multiple Group 1-placed Mojo Star (Ire) (Sea the Stars {Ire}) and a host of Group 2 winners including Hello You (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) and Crypto Force (GB) (Time Test {GB}).

Joorabchian is based in London, but he made sure to be on site at Gulfstream for Affirmative Lady's two-length victory.

“It was probably the best moment that we've had in U.S. racing so far,” he said. “I knew she was not going to be a favorite, but I flew to Miami to see her run. It's a long way for me to go, but in my heart of hearts I knew she would pull off a great performance. She has so much ability and when you watch her work, you can see it. ”

A $210,000 Keeneland September buy, Affirmative Lady was among the first yearlings that AMO Racing purchased in America. Joorabchian remembers finding the filly well because, while he and his agent Robson Aguiar loved her at first sight, not many other buyers were interested.

“When I bought her, everyone was telling me that it wasn't a great buy,” he recalled. “No one really thought much of her other than Robson and me. She looked a little bit backward at the time, but she was very sweet. Her composure and the way she walked was amazing. We knew she wouldn't be early because she wasn't quite on her toes moving the way you would expect a fast, sharp 2-year-old.”

Just as Arrogate didn't truly blossom until later in his career, Joorabchian hypothesized that his new purchase would need plenty of time to develop. He knew he needed to find a patient conditioner and decided that Graham Motion was the perfect candidate.

“Graham really liked her from the word go,” Joorabchian said. “I think it's a credit to Graham. He took something that maybe wasn't the hip, trendy kind of horse. We actually paid a considerable amount for her at the time because Arrogate wasn't popular. I think with the Arrogates, early in their career people thought he was disappointing. But he's proving to be a great stallion and it's really unfortunate that he's not around because she is special.”

Affirmative Lady was winless in two starts at Keeneland last fall, but she touted her potential when she ran a close second to Julia Shining (Curlin) in the GII Demoiselle S. After she ran third in her sophomore debut in the Busada S. at Aqueduct, Motion sent the filly to Gulfstream. She broke her maiden there with first-time blinkers on Feb. 26. before she was sent off at 8-1 in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

Following the victory, Motion said that the more he watches replays of the race, the more he is impressed with his trainee's performance.

Crispy Cat wins the Texas Glitter S. | Lauren King

“There were moments during the race where I was concerned,” Motion admitted. “I thought between the half-mile pole and the three-eighths pole that she might have been struggling a bit. But I've watched the race a couple of times now and once she got in gear, I thought she really came on and got away from them. She just toughs it out. When I asked Luis about it, he said he was never concerned. He thought he always had the horse, which reassured me. I think she wants to go farther. I believe a mile and a sixteenth is too short for her.”

While the Gulfstream Park Oaks was the biggest victory so far this year for AMO Racing, they've had plenty else to celebrate recently. One week before Affirmative Lady's win, they had their first stakes winner in America with Crispy Cat (GB) (Ardad {Ire}) in the Texas Glitter S. The colt was a Group 2-placed juvenile in England before he transferred to Jorge Delgado for his 3-year-old season.

Also last Saturday, AMO Racing had the winner of the first juvenile contest of the year in Ireland with Bucanero Fuerte (GB) (Wootton Bassett {GB}). On the same day, 3-year-old Mischievous Doll (Into Mischief) broke her maiden at Turfway Park for Paulo Lobo.

“It was a fantastic week from Ireland to Miami to Kentucky,” said Joorabchian. “Affirmative Lady was the height of it. We've been very patient with her and it was one of the highlights of my racing career because it was the horse that no one really wanted, but that we loved.”

2023 is already AMO Racing USA's biggest year yet and the operation is just getting started. Joorabchian said that their string here is upwards of three times the size of what it has been the past two years. Nearly 20 horses purchased here are aiming for the starting gate this year and another 20 are shipping in from Europe.

“I'm hoping that within the next few years, we will be pretty balanced between having the same number of horses here as we do in Europe, or maybe even more here,” said Joorabchian.

Asked about the appeal of racing in the U.S., Joorabchian explained that he was drawn to better competition and more prize money.

“U.S. racing is moving upwards,” he said. “The competition is much tougher because you have much bigger prize money. If you do well here, you're really rewarded. If you do well in the U.K., it's more about the value that you're creating in your horses rather than the prize money. I think the competition is much better here as well. You're competing against more people across the spectrum. As an owner like me, I want to compete with more people and be more on level terms and I think the U.S. creates much more competition.”

AMO Racing USA horses are gearing up for 2023 campaigns with trainers all across the country.

Jorge Delgado trains recent stakes winner Crispy Cat, who Joorabchian said is pointing toward the Keeneland race meet and perhaps after that, a trip to Ascot. Delgado's string also includes Olivia Darling (Palace) a 4-year-old filly who ran second in the Minaret S. at Tampa Bay in February; New York Thunder (Nyquist), who won his first two starts at Gulfstream late last year as a juvenile and is now training at Keeneland; and Kingmax (Ire) (Kingman (GB}), a Group 3-placed 4-year-old colt looking to make his U.S. debut in the coming weeks.

Kia Joorabchian | Tattersalls

Paulo Lobo's fleet of AMO horses includes recent maiden winner Mischievous Doll (Into Mischief) and Thunder Love (GB) (Profitable {Ire}), who came to America last year as a 3-year-old and scored a win at Turfway in February. Hurricane J (Nyquist) ran seventh in last year's GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile after two consecutive juvenile wins, but was unplaced in his sophomore debut in February. He now looks to get back to his winning ways in the Lafayette S. at Keeneland on Friday.

“We still have really high hopes for him,” said Joorabchian. “We just think he needed a little more time and I'm hoping this next race will be a lot better.”

Wesley Ward has added a few AMO European exports to his stable with Lady Hollywood (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}), the winner of the G3 Prix d'Arenberg last September who finished a credible fifth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, as well as three-time group winner Go Bears Go (Ire) (Kodi Bear {Ire}).

“We have a really exciting group of horses,” reflected Joorabchian. “Racing is something that I have a passion for and the passion is just getting bigger and bigger. I hope we can achieve some fun things because we're putting a lot behind it.”

Despite many Group 2 and Group 3 wins and quite a few Group 1 placings, AMO Racing is still searching for its first Group/Grade I victory. Their next chance might be on the first Friday in May.

Motion, who will be will be seeking his first Kentucky Oaks win, said that Affirmative Lady came out of last weekend's race in fine shape.

“She got a lot of dirt in her eyes and had a sore eye the next morning, but it looks good now,” he said. “She'll stay in Florida for a few weeks and probably ship to Keeneland around the 17^th and we'll breeze her that weekend. The timing has been great. To be able to give her five more weeks until the Oaks really couldn't be better.”

Joorabchian said he has not yet been to the Kentucky Derby or the Oaks, but added that he is looking forward to this year's experience with Affirmative Lady and hoping for many more trips there in the future.

“When you're racing at the level that we're at now, your dream is to get to the Oak and the Derby, so this is going to be a very special moment,” he said. “We have put this filly through some tough tasks and she has come through in all of them. She has already hit her expectations and everything now is a bonus.”

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Arrogate’s Affirmative Lady Upsets Gulfstream Park Oaks

A year after Secret Oath gave her late sire Arrogate a first winner of the GI Kentucky Oaks, the stallion looks to have a legitimate chance to add to that total posthumously in the form of Affirmative Lady (Arrogate), who made multiple runs to cause an 8-1 upset in Saturday's GII Gulfstream Park Oaks.

A breakthrough maiden winner with first-time blinkers over track and trip at first asking Feb. 26, the AMO Racing USA colorbearer got a good spot at the fence through the early exchanges as Flakes (Frosted) took advantage of her innermost draw to set the pace from Infinite Diamond (Bee Jersey) and a three-wide last out GII Davona Dale S. upsetter Dorth Vader (Girvin).

Quietly ridden down the backstretch by Luis Saez, Affirmative Lady had about three lengths to find entering the turn and was ridden aggressively inside of a weakening Infinite Diamond to be in striking position turning for home. Pulled out into the three path, she found yet another gear and raced over the top of rivals en route to a two-length victory over a game Sacred Wish (Not This Time). Flakes held for third, while Dorth Vader could do no better than fourth.

“When she broke her maiden here five weeks ago, I thought it was really impressive and the timing was good,” winning trainer Graham Motion said. “I think she really wants to go further. I think she'll really appreciate a mile and an eighth, to be honest.”

Affirmative Lady came within a neck of earning her diploma at third asking in the GII Demoiselle S. at Aqueduct Dec. 3 and added a third-place finish, still as a maiden, in the Busanda S. in South Ozone Park Jan. 14. She recorded co-career high 70 Beyer Speed Figures in the Demoiselle and her last-out maiden victory.

Affirmative Lady earned 100 points in the Gulfstream Park Oaks to seal her spot in the starting gate for the GI Kentucky Oaks.

“There's a big race going a mile and an eighth in May, so we'll think about that,” Motion said. “Look, if she comes out of it OK, we have to [run]. That's what she wants to do.”

Pedigree Notes:

Affirmative Lady, a $210,000 KEESEP yearling turned $400,000 OBS April breezer (:10 2/5), becomes the seventh stakes/fifth graded winner for the gone-too-soon Arrogate. Broodmare sire Stephen Got Even is now responsible for 17 stakes/five graded winners. MSW & MGSP Stiffed, a $320,000 purchase by Affirmative Lady's breeder Alastar Thoroughbred Co. while in foal to Pioneerof the Nile at the 2018 KEENOV sale, produced a filly by Nyquist in 2021 ($170,000 KEESEP yearling) and a filly by Connect this year.

Saturday, Gulfstream Park
GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS PRESENTED BY FANDUEL TV-GII,
$255,000, Gulfstream, 4-1, 3yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:44.69, ft.
1–AFFIRMATIVE LADY, 122, f, 3, by Arrogate
          1st Dam: Stiffed (MSW & MGSP, $256,559), by Stephen
                Got Even
          2nd Dam: High Noon Nellie, by Silver Deputy
          3rd Dam: Full and Fancy, by Marfa
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($210,000
Ylg '21 KEESEP; $400,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR). O-AMO Racing
USA; B-Alastar Thoroughbred Co, LLC (KY); T-H. Graham
Motion; J-Luis Saez. $150,350. Lifetime Record: 6-2-1-2,
$270,568. Werk Nick Rating: B+. Click for the eNicks report &
5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com
catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Sacred Wish, 122, f, 3, Not This Time–Indian Wish, by Indian
Charlie. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($80,000
Wlg '20 KEENOV; $70,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP; $50,000 2yo '22
EASMAY). O-Black Type Thoroughbreds, Swinbank Stables,
Steve Adkisson, Christopher T. Dunn and Anthony Spinazzola;
B-John R. Penn (KY); T-George Weaver. $48,500.
3–Flakes, 122, f, 3, Frosted–Tell a Great Story, by Bluegrass Cat.
1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($50,000 2yo '22
OBSAPR). O-BC Racing LLC; B-Arindel (FL); T-Juan Alvarado.
$29,250.
Margins: 2, HD, NK. Odds: 8.50, 9.10, 30.50.
Also Ran: Dorth Vader, Miracle, Infinite Diamond, Atomically,
Just Katherine.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs.
VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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