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Racing’s Crystal Ball: How TDN Europe Predicts 2023 To Play Out

A large part of the fun that comes with following racing and the bloodstock game is predicting the future. Who will win the Derby? Who might top the Orby Sale? What freshman sires are here to stay and which ones will drift into the abyss?

Well, we've looked deep into the TDN Europe crystal ball for 2023 to see if we can come up with the answers to the burning questions for the year ahead. Enjoy!

January

If you think he had a good Christmas, wait until you see how January goes for Willie Mullins. This is the month where Ireland's dominant jumps trainer ramps up a gear, highlighted by Energumene's deadly performance in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. Can anyone stop Energumene–or Mullins for that matter–at Cheltenham?

Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott appears to have his own festival banker in the shape of Mares' Novice Hurdle hotpot Halka Du Tabert, who makes light work of her rivals in the Solerina Mares' Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse.

Guess who features among this race's roll of honour? None other than Honeysuckle and Minella Melody. Could the torch be passed to fellow Kenny Alexander-owned Halka Du Tabert?

February

Reassuring figures are recorded at one of the first big Flat sales of the new year, the February Sale, where multiple lots sell for six figures. Maybe 2022 wasn't a dream after all.

Willie Mullins once again dominates at the Dublin Racing Festival where Honeysuckle's bid for a four-timer in the Irish Champion Hurdle is foiled by State Man, who now appears the chief Irish challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.

Galopin Des Champs dazzles in the Irish Gold Cup, but will he stay the extra two furlongs up the punishing hill at Cheltenham?

March

Did somebody say Flat racing? Aidan O'Brien opens the gates at Ballydoyle to the Irish press and Brendan O'Rourke is back in search of the next two-year-old star to follow this season. “He's by No Nay Never, Brendan. Big Little something, I think he's called,” says Aidan. “A fiver or a tenner,” asks Brendan.

Constitution Hill proves worthy of all of the hype in the Champion Hurdle by beating Honeysuckle, who runs a tremendous race in the first-time cheekpieces.

It's easy-as-you-like for Energumene in the Champion Chase but there's a surprise in the Stayers' Hurdle as Ahoy Senor, re-routed from the Gold Cup, denies Flooring Porter a third straight triumph.

It's a one-two-three for team Mullins in the Gold Cup, but it's Emmet who takes the top honours, not his uncle Willie, as Noble Yeats out-battles Galopin Des Champs with Stattler running an eye-catching race with a view towards the Grand National back in third.

The recently-returned Oisin Murphy shines at the Dubai World Cup meeting. Meanwhile, industry stakeholders begin to get a foothold on what's required for the Dubai Breeze-up Sale as solid trade is recorded.

April

Don't say you weren't told. Stattler does a Hedgehunter by building on a cracking effort in the Gold Cup to secure Grand National glory at the main expense of Lifetime Ambition.

Oh yes. We're back, baby. The breeze-up circus gets going with a bang as the international buyers turn out in force for the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale. Tally-Ho Stud sells the top lot, a Kodiac colt, to Peter and Ross Doyle for high six figures.

Will he or won't he? The build-up to the Craven S. revolves around whether leading 2000 Guineas contender Chaldean will take in a prep or head straight to the Classic. In the end, Andrew Balding elects to sidestep the Craven, describing himself as delighted with Chaldean's condition at home on the gallops.

May

No prep run? No problem. Balding's decision to go straight to the 2000 Guineas with Chaldean pays off in spades as he romps home at Newmarket. Little Big Bear fails to get involved but Auguste Rodin finishes a fine second for Aidan O'Brien, who goes on to win the 1000 Guineas with Meditate.

In Chaldean's absence, Little Big Bear justifies O'Brien's faith in the colt's ability to see out the mile as he makes light work of the opposition in the Irish 2,000 Guineas while Dermot Weld's Tahiyra shows a blistering turn of foot to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas.

It's that man again. Willie Browne tops the Arqana breeze-up sale with a colt sourced in America the previous autumn.

June

Aidan O'Brien wins the Oaks with a filly who failed to win as a two-year-old while the Guineas runner-up Auguste Rodin takes the step up to 1m4f in his stride by running out one of the most impressive Derby winners for some time.

It's a week for the first-season sires at Royal Ascot as colts by Ten Sovereigns and Soldier's Call win the Coventry and Norfolk S. respectively while an Inns Of Court filly lands the Queen Mary S.

Kyprios runs out one of the most impressive winners of the week to take his second Gold Cup. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Sakheer dazzles in the Commonwealth Cup, once again advertising the prowess of breeze-up handler Willie Browne.

Back at the Curragh, Aidan O'Brien records a record-extending 15th Irish Derby triumph.

July

Auguste Rodin had the option of bidding for the Derby double at the Curragh but he proves himself to be equally as adept back over 10f in bolstering the good record that three-year-olds have in the Coral-Eclipse S. at Sandown.

Remember him? Desert Crown makes his long awaited return to the track in the King George at Ascot but he is no match for Vadeni who appears a much stronger horse this year and sees the trip out well.

The demand for horses with good ratings remains strong at the July Sale at Tattersalls while, on the track, Sakheer follows up his brilliant display at Royal Ascot with a red-hot performance in the July Cup.

August

After running a number of classy races against the boys, Dramatised causes something of a surprise for local owner Steve Parkin and trainer Karl Burke in the Nunthorpe S. at York.

September

He never managed to win the St Leger as a jockey but he does it as a trainer. Step forward Donnacha O'Brien. Proud And Regal, indeed.

Goffs captures the imagination with its latest incentive to attract buyers and vendors alike to the Orby, which continues to go from strength to strength. A number of New Bay and Mehmas colts sell nicely while Saxon Warrior hardens his reputation as a coming force in the stallion ranks with his progeny selling for notable sums.

October

No match for Alpinista 12 months ago, Vadeni wins the Arc from stablemate Al Hakeem with Bay Bridge keeping on best for third.

Book 1 does not disappoint at Tattersalls with 10 lots breaking the million gns mark, including Philip Stauffenberg's Kingman half-brother to Skitter Scatter, who he picked up for €550,000 at Goffs the previous November.

But the top lot is a 3 million gns colt consigned by Watership Down and it sells to Mick Donohoe, bidding on his iPad for Yulong, with MV Magnier and Anthony Stroud pushing him all the way.

The weather Gods do not look kindly on British Champions Day as the meeting is a washout and the testing ground throws up a number of surprise results.

November

It's a first Melbourne Cup victory for Willie Mullins as Champion Hurdle also-ran Vauban builds on his Queen Alexandra S. victory at Royal Ascot to take the race that stops a nation.

Nothing can separate Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby once again at the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita as both men send out five winners apiece. Special mention to Modern Games, who secures his third Breeders' Cup triumph and second Breeders' Cup Mile success.

December

There must be something in the water. Tally-Ho Stud clinches its third first-season sire championship in four years as Inns Of Court does what Mehmas and Cotai Glory did before him by producing the goods with his first crop of runners. It was an incredibly-strong year for the freshman sires with Soldier's Call, Ten Sovereigns, Too Darn Hot, Advertise and Blue Point achieving plenty.

Some extra dates are added to the farewell tour as Frankie Dettori announces his decision to continue his riding career for another season.

The post Racing’s Crystal Ball: How TDN Europe Predicts 2023 To Play Out appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Young Guns: Buyers Have Their Say On The Up-And-Coming Stallions

By Brian Sheerin and Emma Berry

After a hectic few months perusing this year's foal and yearling crops, we asked the buyers to share their thoughts on the young stallions with first foals and yearlings. From leading bloodstock journalist Nancy Sexton to top pinhooker John Cullinan, the pulse was taken on the ground at Tattersalls where opinions have now been formed on first-crop sires Ghaiyyath (Ire), Earthlight (Ire), Sergei Prokofiev and much more.

Dermot Farrington, agent, on Advertise (GB) & Kameko:

“If you look at the list of people who have bought yearlings and foals by Advertise, it's a long time since a young stallion has attracted the who's who of the bloodstock world, and that's exactly what he has done. Whether it be yearlings to breeze, yearlings to race or foals to pinhook, Advertise has attracted what I would call the best horse men and women in the industry. He's hugely popular among the right people and it truly is amazing. People will say I am biased given I bought the horse and my father-in-law [Martyn Meade] trained him, but I genuinely think he'll be a big success.

“Of the first crop of foals, Kameko is producing some very nice stock. I was actually very disappointed not to buy a colt on Thursday night by Kameko. I was the underbidder on him and Mick Fitzpatrick bought him. Kameko was a classy racehorse and I'd be backing him to do well from what I have seen so far.”

John Cullinan, pinhooker, on Pinatubo (Ire) and Blue Point (Ire):

“Everyone loves the new kids on the block and I'm no different. Ghaiyyath is the new exciting stallion and I was delighted to get a colt by him this week for 240,000gns. He's producing fantastic stock but sure he was the outstanding racehorse of his generation and is by a sire of sires in Dubawi (Ire). Look at Night Of Thunder and New Bay for example. Hopefully Ghaiyyath can carry on in that direction because they are a nice bunch of horses.

“I also bid strong on a Pinatubo on Thursday night but I didn't get him unfortunately. I like what I have seen from him. I don't usually buy many foals by sires who have their first runners the following season because, when you are only buying a few every year, you could leave yourself open. It's a huge risk, huge exposure. Having said that, myself and Roger [Marley] had a chat the other evening, and I hope to God that I am not putting the kiss of death on him now, but we both think Blue Point will have a big season next year. For any horse to win twice in the one week at Royal Ascot, they have to be blessed with uncommon talent. We have one very nice colt by him to breeze next year and, on the strength of what he's been doing, we bought a foal by him this week for 72,000gns, but it's not something we'd do normally.

“The market has been interesting this week and I think we could be facing a tough spell, especially in Britain, which is why we have been concentrating on the top end. The thinking there is, if we do hit a little bump next year, we will have the horses to sell to the recession-proof buyers. And, sure if all else fails, we can go out in a blaze of glory! But in all seriousness, it's been very tough at the sales because everyone has had the same idea. We looked at 136 horses, only vetted 14 of them and came home with three. I'm after leaving myself a little light on numbers but I have some high-end horses, which was the plan. I bought 11 foals last year and the ones I bought cheaply were the ones who didn't make money. The ones I pushed on and gave the few quid for, they left money behind, so I decided to spend my money this year, but on fewer horses at a higher level.”

Nancy Sexton, journalist and pinhooker on Ghaiyyath, Earthlight and King Of Change (GB):

“It's no secret that Ghaiyyath has some lovely foals: they have a look of Dubawi about them but they also have scope and the ones I've seen have been good movers. It's easy to see why they were so popular at Goffs and at Tattersalls.

“I also liked the Earthlight foals: on the whole they were good movers and straightforward. King Of Change wouldn't have many soldiers, but from the small selection over the last two weeks I thought they were good-looking and good-moving horses. He was a little underrated on the track and as a well-bred son of Farhh (GB), anything could happen.”

Eddie O'Leary, Lynn Lodge Stud on Ghaiyyath, Earthlight, Arizona, and Advertise:

“The Ghaiyyaths are gorgeous. They are big lovely-walking foals and they have plenty of quality about them. I've seen plenty of nice Earthlights and there were a few Arizonas who caught my eye as well. I actually underbid the Arizona colt who Peter Nolan bought at Goffs for €60,000. Advertise has his first runners next year and, after what I saw on my gallops at home recently, I was keen to pick up a few foals by him and I'm happy I did. I think he'll do well next year.”

Clare Manning, Boherguy Stud, on Ghaiyyath & Earthlight:

“I'm going to have to nominate two because I have been very impressed by the first foals by Ghaiyyath and Earthlight. They really seem to be stamping their stock. The Ghaiyyaths have plenty of size and are good walkers. He was a brilliant racehorse and is producing fine-bodied individuals. Earthlight is out of a New Approach (Ire) mare, which is obviously a big plus for me, and I have been a fan of what I have seen from him so far.”

Julie Woods, owner, on Ghaiyyath, Sergei Prokofiev & Without Parole (GB):

“Ghaiyyath is putting a nice stamp on his foals and Sergei Prokofiev seems popular as well. We bought a Without Parole because we like the Frankel (GB) line and followed Cracksman (GB) last year. There's a lot to look at but those are the ones we have really concentrated on.”

Freddy Tylicki, agent, on Ghaiyyath, Sergei Prokofiev, Advertise & Blue Point:

“I have been very taken by the Ghaiyyaths and the Sergei Prokofievs. Ghaiyyath is producing very good and attractive foals so let's see if they can run. The Sergei Prokofievs are going down as well as hot biscuits and he looks like he is stamping his foals. I bought an Advertise foal and it looks as though she was a giveaway as she cost just 2,500gns. I liked him when I saw him at stud and I loved him as a racehorse. I also bought a Blue Point foal and I think they will be fast.”

Joe Foley, Ballyhane Stud, on Sands Of Mali (Fr), Mohaather (GB), Soldier's Call (GB), Ten Sovereigns (Ire) and Too Darn Hot (GB):

“I have been very pleased with the Sands Of Malis. He did well at Goffs and a nice colt sold for 27,000gns so we're very happy with that. In other news, the Mohaathers have been catching my eye. He was a lovely yearling himself, a lovely horse and a very good racehorse, so I was very interested in his foals. They have come back in his real Showcasing (GB) shape and they have that action. They look like runners to me. We bought a few Soldier's Calls last week at Goffs and again this week and I fancy him to do well in his first season next year and to become a good sire. Ten Sovereigns is another stallion whose yearlings I have liked the shape of and we bought a foal by him last week at Goffs. But that's a risky game, buying foals in the hope that the stallion clicks with its first runners.

“Next year is probably one of the most competitive years I can remember for first-season sires but, you know what, the good ones will come through. People are clever nowadays and, with all of the statistics available to everyone, they will be able to spot the good ones at the different price ranges. The likes of Too Darn Hot, who was a very good racehorse, his yearlings look very racey and appear to have plenty of Dubawi about them. I bought a few by him this week so I took a gamble there.

“And, speaking of Dubawi, Ghaiyyath has done well with his first foals. He was the highest-rated horse in the world at one point and is a very good-looking horse with a great attitude and a wonderful pedigree. Not only that, he showed good acceleration for a horse who stayed 10 furlongs. I'd like him as well. There are some very nice horses coming through the ranks which is great because we need some more good stallions. There are very good stallions coming through over the next few years and that's what makes this game so interesting.”

Liam Norris, agent and pinhooker, on Kameko:

“For me the Kameko foals are all a similar type. I like to see a stallion stamping his stock and I have seen a good few of his foals that I've liked.”

Larry Stratton, agent and pinhooker, on Sergei Prokofiev:

“There's a real consistency to the Sergei Prokofiev foals. One after another they have been really strong; he's really stamping them. They have lovely strong tops like himself.”

Amy Lynam, agent, on Mohaather, Without Parole, Too Darn Hot, Magna Grecia (Ire) and Masar (Ire):

“Of those with first foals, I have liked the stock of Mohaather. He's stamping his stock and obviously if they take after him you'd definitely like that. I've liked some of the Without Paroles as well; I think they are good walkers with a bit of quality about them.

“From the first yearlings I liked the Too Darn Hots. They were probably a bit too expensive for me, but I liked them all the same and I am excited to see what he can do. I also bought a yearling by Magna Grecia in Doncaster and he was one of my favourites that I bought. Invincible Spirit (Ire) is a proven sire of sires, Magna Grecia was top class himself and he is very impressive to look at. I also liked Masar's yearlings and it has been great to see his foals sell well this week as well.”

Harry Dutfield, pinhooker, on Earthlight, Sergei Prokofiev, and Kameko:

“Over in Ireland, the Earthlights made the list. At the cheaper end of the scale, Sergei Prokofiev has hit the mark repeatedly, and the Kameko foals are good-bodied sorts. But if you had a small mare, Sergei Prokofiev seems to be stamping them: they are big, brawny, lengthy horses with plenty of size and scope.”

Tom Whelan, pinhooker, on Sergei Prokofiev, Mohaather & Earthlight:

“For me the Sergei Prokofiev foals were the best. I underbid one at 92,000gns. I liked him a lot and I followed one in again today who made 70,000gns. They are good, strong foals.

“I also saw some nice Mohaather foals. Some of them look very like Showcasing and the way he has gone that can't be a bad thing. The Earthlights were also very consistent.”

John Bourke, Hyde Park Stud, on Ghaiyyath, Earthlight, and Soldier's Call:

“Ghiayyath is the one everyone is raving about and the Earthlights are nice as well. I'm not a big foal buyer but I buy a lot of yearlings and mares, they are my big thing, so I'm always watching the young sires coming through. That's one of the most interesting parts of this game for me.

“I might try and buy a mare who is in foal to one of the up-and-coming stallions next week. The way I look at mares is, I'll be looking at sending them to a stallion who will have his first runners next year. I sent two mares to Havana Grey (GB) in April when it looked like he was going to do the business. People can be panicking about getting their mares in foal but I will always keep a few back to see what first-season sires are going well and I'll take a chance on the ones who are showing the right signs.

“Soldier's Call is one I'll be backing. To be honest, I've one or two at home who are being prepared for the breeze-ups and they look like rockets. There's one filly in particular there and, if she can't gallop, I'll be very surprised.”

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Advertise and Aclaim Leave National Stud for Manton

Young stallions Advertise (GB) and Aclaim (Ire) will leave the National Stud to stand at Martyn Meade's Manton Park Stud from the 2023 covering season.

The G1 Prix de la Foret winner Aclaim has made a successful start to his stud career, and was represented by a Classic winner from his first crop when the George Boughey-trained Cachet (Ire) won the 1,000 Guineas.

Advertise, who was trained, like Aclaim, by Meade, was a Group 1-winning sprinter in three different countries and has his first yearlings at the sales this autumn.

“We would like to thank the team at The National Stud for their energy and commitment to Advertise and Aclaim since the start of their stallion careers,” said Meade. “It has been an ambition for these two horses to return to Manton ever since they were trained here and we are now in a position to welcome them home to continue their time at stud.”

National Stud CEO Anna Kerr added, “The National Stud is delighted to have launched the careers of two such exciting young stallions, it has been very rewarding for the whole team to see what a strong start both Aclaim and Advertise have made to their stud careers. They both have bright futures ahead of them and we wish them every success at Manton Park.”

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Rockets At The Ready As Doncaster Set To Soar

Not since Elon Musk became infatuated with space has there been so many rockets assembled in the one place at any given time than at Doncaster ahead of the Premier Yearling Sale.

These particular starships have been bred to fly and, lurking among the 411 yearlings getting ready for takeoff at Goffs UK over the next few days could be the next Acclamation (GB), Dark Angel (Ire), Wootton Bassett (GB) or Tasleet (GB), all of whom are graduates of this sale.

Joe Foley knows a thing or two about rockets. The Ballyhane man jetted into Doncaster on Monday morning and was greeted with nothing but good reports from vendors and buyers about his freshman sire Soldier's Call (GB) (Showcasing {GB}).

A smart sprinter, Soldier's Call won the G2 Flying Childers as a 2-year-old and placed in the G1 King's Stand S. and the G1 Nunthorpe S. at three. There are 14 yearlings belonging to him in the sale, four of which will be offered by Ballyhane.

However, rather than put the “kiss of death” on his own draft by speaking too soon, Foley spoke in general terms about his enthusiasm behind the son of Showcasing's prospects of making it as a stallion.

He explained, “Soldier's Call is exactly what the people at Doncaster are looking for–sharp, precocious, classy and speedy types. We have obviously had access to seeing a lot of them in their prep and we couldn't be more pleased.

“They've a great attitude and they love their work. I'd be apprehensively hopeful and, as time moves on and the more of them that you see, the more confident you'd be that he's going to be a good stallion.”

Foley added, “His progeny love lunging, love walking and love coming in and doing stuff, and that is a great sign in a stallion's progeny, because it doesn't always happen. Some of them don't like work, show a bit of temper, but the Soldier's Calls are not like that. They're deadly.

“They all have a lovely attitude. When you get over here and people report back the same, it creates a good vibe and I'm very happy with what I am seeing.

“Doncaster is a very popular sale and loads of people try to support it. It would appear that everyone is here this year so there's going to be a lot of competition for the right ones.”

You don't have to walk beyond Barn A to realise that there will be a wicked fight in the sales ring to smoke out the best of what's on offer at this year's sale.

At one end of that barn in particular on Monday afternoon, you had George Boughey busy inspecting yearlings while in another, Mark Johnston had just arrived.

William Haggas, Andrew Balding, Joseph and Donnacha O'Brien, Kevin Ryan and Roger Varian are just a handful of other well-known trainers to have made their presence felt in recent days.

The breeze-up fraternity were also out in force, with Johnny Collins, Byron Rogers, Katie Walsh, Roger Marley and more providing a snapshot of the faces on the ground at Doncaster.

Like Soldier's Call, progeny by Le Brivido (Fr) represent something new for prospective buyers. Simon Sweeting, who for one season stood Le Brivido at Overbury Stud, offers two of the three yearlings in the sale by the former G3 Jersey S. hero, the pick of which appears to be lot 201.

A bonny half-brother to Ladies Church (GB) (Churchill {Ire}), who bagged the G2 Sapphire S. at the Curragh when last seen, lot 201 will bid to provide his stallion with something of a springboard.

Sweeting said, “He's a super colt and obviously the page has improved a lot. Unfortunately, we stood Le Brivido for a season-shared him with Coolmore-but he wasn't as popular as we hoped he'd be.

“Why that was, I don't know. Whether they couldn't get their heads around Siyouni (Fr) at the time, I don't know, but we thought he was everything that a breeder could want.

“We supported him and have several yearlings by him to sell this year but, because he didn't cover enough mares, we made an early decision to move him back to France.”

Sweeting added, “He's over there now covering plenty of mares and obviously we hope some of these yearlings can win plenty of races to get his stallion career up and running. He covered just 60-odd mares in that first season for us, which isn't enough, so to give him a chance, we sent him to France. He's been busy over there so we'll see what happens on the racecourse.”

All told, there are six yearlings by Advertise (GB) in the sale, one of which is lot 174, a colt offered by Llety Farms, whose David Hodge is quietly optimistic.

Hodge said, “He's been busy and is what I'd call a typical Donny horse-it's what we picked him out for, to bring him here. He's a homebred. He was bred on the farm for Paul Brocklehurst, who had the Cesarewitch winner Sweet Selection (GB) (Stimulation {Ire}).”

Fellow first-season sires for next year, Inns Of Court (Ire), Blue Point (Ire), Calyx (GB), Eqtidaar (Ire), Invincible Army (Ire), Land Force (Ire), Magna Grecia (Ire), Masar (Ire), Too Darn Hot (GB), Phoenix Of Spain (Ire), and Ten Sovereigns (Ire) are all represented in the catalogue.

Mark McStay, who was busy at the August Sale at Arqana just over a week ago, expects to be active at Doncaster and praised Goffs for making the huge number of clients in attendance feel welcome.

He said, “I will be buying for a variety of different people–some trainers and owners. I thought it was a typically good draft of yearlings and, as per usual, it will throw up a lot of good 2-year-old winners next year. Goffs have done a great job in making everyone feel really welcome here and it should be a very good sale.”

Only one man knows more about launching rockets than Musk, and that's the Goffs Chief Executive Henry Beeby, the man behind that warm welcome.

Beeby was typically optimistic on the eve of the 2022 Doncaster Premier Yearling Sale, which kicks off at 10 am on Tuesday, and admitted that everything was in place for a good sale.

He said, “The vendors have all been very positive. They brought very good horses and were very busy yesterday and very busy today and everything is set up nicely. We're cautiously optimistic but, the closer you get, the more you think, 'goodness me, there are some lovely horses here.' We'll see what happens. It's looking very positive at the moment.”

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