2022 Foal Crop | Horse Racing Free Tips

Keeneland CEO Shannon Arvin Talks September Sale On Writers’ Room

The early returns have been strong at Keeneland's marquee September Sale, both in the numbers on the board and the overall vibe on the grounds, and Wednesday morning, the company's president and chief executive officer Shannon Arvin joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland to talk about her first September Sale officially running the show, the return of some normalcy to the auction environment, what to expect at the upcoming Keeneland Fall Meet and more.

“The word we keep saying is electric,” said Arvin, calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week, about the atmosphere on the grounds. “We've worked really hard to try to create the right environment that Book 1 deserves. So we've got a lot of flowers, we've got cocktails, we've got brunch. The barns are full of people, domestic buyers, international buyers. There were a lot of people sitting in that pavilion and really excited to be here. The electricity is palpable and we really do have that hustle and bustle back, which is what we want at a public auction.”

Arvin has Keeneland in her blood, as a Lexington native and the third generation of Keeneland management. She was asked about her early memories of Keeneland and spoke to her reverence for what the company means to racing as well as the Lexington community.

“It's funny, since I've been in this position, a lot of people say, 'Well, of course you were going to be president of Keeneland.' Nobody ever knows they're going to be president of Keeneland,” she said. “There are so many people that revere this institution, and what it means to racing, what it means to the Thoroughbred industry, what it means to our community. I definitely am one of those. My grandfather was the first general manager and he was here from 1936 until 1971. My dad grew up on these grounds and was lawyer to Keeneland and was one of our three trustees when he passed away in 2008. My early memories are from working here. I answered the switchboard and I worked in the sales office. They had Dough Daddy donuts every Saturday, and graham crackers and peanut butter in the break room … We are a company that was formed by horsemen for horsemen. In order to fulfill our mission to be a model racetrack, and promote the best in Thoroughbred racing and industry world leading sales company, we have to have horsemen on our team that understand what our customers are going through. So I think that's helped me really have strong ideas about who we need to have here.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Spendthrift Farm, West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, Joe Bianca and Bill Finley were joined by guest cohost Gabby Gaudet to discuss a smashing Kentucky Downs meet, the declining foal crop numbers and Churchill Downs's announcement that horses in the barns of suspended trainers will not be awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby points. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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The Jockey Club Projects 2022 Foal Crop Of 18,700

The Jockey Club is projecting a North American registered Thoroughbred foal crop of 18,700 in 2022. This represents 500 fewer foals than the 2021 foal crop estimate of 19,200.

The foal crop projection is computed by using Reports of Mares Bred (RMBs) received to date for the 2021 breeding season. RMBs are to be filed by August 1 of each breeding season.

Additional foal crop information is available in The Jockey Club's online fact book at jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp and in the online state fact books.

Stallion owners who have not returned their RMBs for the 2021 breeding season are encouraged to do so as soon as possible. Interactive Registration, which enables registered users to perform virtually all registration-related activities over the Internet, is the most efficient means of submitting RMBs and is available at registry.jockeyclub.com.

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Large Drop in Thoroughbred Foal Crop; 18,700 Projected for 2022

The North American registered Thoroughbred foal crop is projected to be 18,700 in 2022, The Jockey Club reported Thursday morning. This represents 500 fewer foals than the 2021 foal crop estimate of 19,200, and, at a decline of 2.6%, represents the sixth straight year of decline and is the lowest figure since 1965, when the foal crop was 18,846.

The high-water mark of 51,296 was reached in 1986. The crop has declined every year since then with the exception of 2015.

The foal crop projection is computed by using Reports of Mares Bred (RMBs) received to date for the 2021 breeding season. RMBs are to be filed by August 1 of each breeding season.

Additional foal crop information is available in The Jockey Club's online fact book at jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp and in the online state fact books.

The Jockey Club is encouraging stallion owners who have not returned their RMBs for the 2021 breeding season to do so as soon as possible, advising that Interactive Registration, which enables registered users to perform virtually all registration-related activities over the Internet, is the most efficient means of submitting RMBs and is available at registry.jockeyclub.com.

The 2020 foal crop, at 20,500, was the last time it surpassed 20,000 foals. Click here to download a historical table dating back to 1900.

WinStar's Elliott Walden was asked if he felt that COVID-19, which struck one month into the 2020 breeding season, was behind the decline.

“I don't know if you can answer whether or not there's a specific reason for it,” he said. “It has been a trend for years, and I don't know that it's any one event that caused it.”

But whatever the reason, he said that despite the foal-crop numbers, he was bullish on the industry. “I'm of the view that things are looking up,” he said. “I think that you've got four racetracks with maiden races with purses of $100,000 plus and I think you're going to see a very solid sale here next week. I think the horses that we typically don't talk about in the TDN are going to be very competitive to buy, and that's the horses in the $25,000-$100,000 range, because of the purses. If breeders can start making money across the board, rather than just on one or two horses, because the purses are good enough, that makes all the difference.”

In the meantime, he said, “the biggest concern is for races being filled, and you might have to solve that by picking and choosing strategic days for tracks to race.”

In Kentucky, the largest breeding state in America, the projected foal crop declined from 8,206 in 2021 to 7,545 in 2022, a loss of 661 foals, and a decline of 8%.

But like Walden, the Executive Director of the KTA/KTOB, Chauncey Morris, said he was seeing positive trends as well.

“If you look back in the history of the turf, when horse racing was the national pastime, the foal crop was far lower,” he said. “I always first have to look through the prism of Kentucky, because that's my job. And the 661 fewer foals is down to a decade of racetrack closures and disruption in the export market. We have been at this point for a while now in the 21st Century where there has been a deglobalization that makes it harder to export. Countries are wanting to subsist on their domestic product. We're doing that here in the U.S.. In the middle of that, there are some takeaways that are hugely influential to the foal crop as possible signs,” he said.

“The first is the strength of the economy in the U.S. as it relates to those end users–racehorse owners that we depend on who actually buy the horses,” he said.

“Number 2, I would say that if New York, Kentucky, Arkansas and California weren't posting solid wagering numbers, then we should have cause to really worry long-term about the business, but because they are turning in high-wagering numbers in the middle of a global pandemic, increased competition for the disposable dollar, and in the midst of global disruption, ultimately you can draw upon some positivity going into the largest sale in the world. Yes, it's a little bit concerning. But yes, we have also taken steps to correcting the underlying foundations as to how this sport is regulated, and can draw upon places like New York, Kentucky, Arkansas, where the business plan is solid. And we know that, at least in Kentucky, our fields are pretty good and our product is pretty strong.”

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