Tag: 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings

Believe You Can had already done plenty for the Airdrie Stud operation when she retired to the farm to begin her broodmare career ahead of the 2014 breeding season.

Her place as one of the best home-grown runners in in the deep-rooted history of the Airdrie program was secure after winning the 2012 Kentucky Oaks and earning more than $1.2 million over a three-year career.

However, the stud book is full of great racemares that never came close to repeating their success when they entered the breeding shed. Whether it's the near-impossible expectations of lightning striking twice within a bloodline, or the great breeder Federico Tesio's hypothesis that great racemares have expended their “nervous energy” on the track and have none left to give their foals, the odds weren't necessarily in Believe You Can's favor.

Once again, though, she answered the call and has transitioned from one of the Jones family's stars on the racetrack to a cornerstone of their broodmare band.

That started with her first foal, the Tapit colt Believe in Royalty, who became a Grade 3-placed stakes winner, and it has continued with the Collected colt Conclude, who recently won the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby to tally his third career stakes win.

Believe You Can has also been a commercial boon to the Airdrie operation in her second career. Believe in Royalty sold for $900,000 as a yearling, and full-sister Birdy Num brought $1 million at auction a year later. However, her biggest impact on the auction scene was with Brother in Arms, a War Front colt who sold to Godolphin for $2.9 million at the 2019 Keeneland September sale.

“She's been as important as any horse that we've raised on the farm, not only for what she did for us during her racing career, but what she's done as a broodmare,” said Airdrie Stud's Bret Jones. “Now, we hope her daughters and sons can continue to do that for the farm. We kept a really nice Uncle Mo filly out of her a couple years ago (the placed Faith's Reward), and she'll be bred well, and I believe Conclude has a stallion future ahead of him, so hopefully that legacy will be around for a long time.”

The next chapter of Believe You Can's story will take place Monday during the opening session of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where Airdrie Stud will offer Hip 31, a Nyquist filly out of the farm's star mare.

The bay filly is by a son of Uncle Mo, meaning the cross is similar to that of Faith's Reward, the filly out of Believe You Can that Airdrie kept to one day join their broodmare band. Looking further back, Nyquist's sire Uncle Mo is a son of Indian Charlie, who stood the bulk of his stud career at Airdrie Stud.

“She's a beautiful filly,” Jones said. “We're very lucky to have her. She's been nice since day one, and we've been looking forward to showing her for a long time…This filly, I really think is the nicest foal we've had from her.”

Jones said Believe You Can took to motherhood naturally when she entered her new career, and passing on her mind was a trademark of her foals. The Nyquist filly on offer Monday was no different.

“They're both such classy fillies, both just medium-sized, really well balanced,” he said. “Just looks like a racehorse, and her mom looked like a racehorse. If she's half as good a racehorse as her mother was, everyone will be happy.”

While her yearling filly goes through her paces at the Keeneland sales grounds, Believe You Can remains in her pasture at Airdrie Stud, pregnant to Airdrie's fast-rising sire Upstart.

She'd be a popular fixture on the property regardless of her personality, but Jones said Believe You Can enjoys the attention.

“She's an absolute sweetheart,” he said. “I actually tried to take a picture of her the other day. She was standing under this big oak tree, and we had this wonderful moment in the morning where it was going to be this great picture, and as soon as I got out of my car to take it, she ran over to me so I could pet her. She completely blew the shot, but that's just the personality she's got. She's a really cool mare to be around.”

Looking at the career of Believe You Can, some of the biggest flashpoints of her life have been times when nothing happened.

In 2010, she was offered at the Keeneland September sale, and she finished under her reserve with a final bid of $70,000. Four years later, she went through the ring pregnant to Tapit – an in-utero foal that would become Believe in Royalty – at the Fasig-Tipton November Sale, and she once again hammered under her reserve. This time around, the hammer price was $4.9 million.

That might sound like a lot of money to turn down, but Jones said his father, Brereton Jones, wasn't terribly bothered to put her back on the trailer.

“If I were a betting man, the odds would have been about 1-to-5 that she was going to stay at Airdrie, but Pop wanted to test the market,” the younger Jones said. “He gave the market a chance, and I don't think anyone was sad when she didn't bring what we hoped, and I can promise you Libby Jones (Brereton's wife and Bret's mother) wasn't sad. I think she was the happiest person in central Kentucky, and I think Mom was right.”

Since entering production, Believe You Can has done a bit of everything when it comes to who she's been bred to, from going to top commercial sires like Tapit and War Front to supporting Airdrie roster members such as Collected and Upstart. As a correct, medium-sized mare, Jones said she fits well with practically any body type on a stallion.

Believe You Can lost a foal from the first book of Darley's Essential Quality earlier this year, and she was sent to Upstart for the 2024 foaling season.

“We're just extremely bullish on Upstart and his future,” Jones said. “I think what you've already seen him do with lesser quality mares is pretty incredible. You look at how he improves his mares and all the data around that, the last couple years, his books have been incredible, and it shows you our belief in his future that we'd send Believe You Can to him. I think when these top mares, their foals start hitting the racetracks, there's no ceiling on what he can do.”

The post ‘As Important As Any Horse We’ve Raised On The Farm’: Believe You Can Continues Building Her Airdrie Stud Legacy At Keeneland September Sale appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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The Texas Thoroughbred Association's 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale is in the rear view, which gave us a bit more data to collect in our journey to find the juvenile auction season's most successful stallion.

We also have a new horse at the top of the power rankings, and the movement has nothing to do with the Texas sale.

With this system of sorting out sires still in its relative infancy, there will inevitably be some kinks to work out, and improvements to make in the middle of the season.

I had a lingering suspicion I wasn't collecting the full data from the breeze shows, and upon further inspection of the under-tack results, I was right. There was a handful of horses and times that I was missing; particularly those that were scratched between the workouts and the auction itself which were deleted from the online sale result lists but still lived on the breeze show result pdfs released at the end of each day of works. Nothing nefarious, I just needed to catch up with each sale company's system of record-keeping.

Providing the most accurate figures possible means counting every horse that's clocked, whether they sell or not, and now that I have the full numbers in hand, these rankings should be an even better representation of which sires' juveniles are breezing the fastest furlongs, on top of generating the highest median sale prices.

As a reminder, here are the requirements to qualify for the power rankings:

1) At least five horses sold during a major 2023 juvenile sale, regardless of distance breezed.

2) At least five horses that breezed an eighth of a mile, whether they sold or not (as much as I love a good quarter-mile breeze, there just aren't enough horses doing them for a representative sample).

3) Eventually, we'll have a minimum average sale price to keep the list from getting too long, but for now, everyone's invited.

Also important to note: For the sake of calculating averages, I stretched out each breeze time from fifths to tenths. If you see a :9.8 time somewhere, do not adjust your stopwatches.

Let's get a look at those rankings…

 

#1 – Into Mischief, Spendthrift Farm

Oh, look. Into Mischief is at the top of another sire list. The record-setting resident of Spendthrift Farm exited the OBS March sale as the leading sire by median sale price at $400,000, led by Hip 639, a filly out of the winning Orb mare Madame Orbe who sold to AMO Racing for $550,000. Wavertree Stables consigned the filly, from the family of multiple Grade 1 winner Divisidero.

On the racetrack, Into Mischief's average breeze time of 10.150 seconds ranked him second among all qualifying sires, including a trio of workers in :10-flat that featured the $550,000 filly.

This crop of 2-year-olds was conceived in 2020, on the heels of Into Mischief's first of what's become four straight years as leading general sire by earnings the previous year. He was getting top-shelf books of mares before this crop, but this was his first formal season of breeding the best to the best, in terms of sire list rankings. For as meteoric as Into Mischief's rise has been, it might be ready to enter warp-speed now that we're seeing the foals conceived at the top of the mountain.

#2 – Omaha Beach, Spendthrift Farm

The first of two Spendthrift rookies to crack the top three, Omaha Beach did his best work in the sales ring, where his median price of $285,000 ranked second among his qualifying peers.

Under tack, the son of War Front finished third with an average progeny breeze time of 10.156 seconds, led by a pair of juveniles that breezed in 9.8 seconds (remember, we're counting in tenths instead of fifths) at the OBS March sale. As arguably the most lauded freshman sire of his class, results like these are practically expected, and he has met those expectations in the early goings.

Kerri Radcliffe, agent, purchased the most expensive Omaha Beach of the OBS sale, which was also one of the sire's two co-fastest workers. Hip 752, a filly out of the stakes-winning Unusual Heat mare Pacific Heat from the consignment of Wavertree Stables, agent, went to Radcliffe for $690,000, making her the most expensive freshman-sired juvenile of the sale.

#3 – Mitole, Spendthrift Farm

The other half of Spendthrift's freshman tag team dominating the top of the charts, Mitole ranked fourth by both average breeze time (10.200 seconds) and median sale price ($225,000) to give him a lofty position after the first two sales.

The son of Eskendereya is expected to enjoy a significant boost in interest this season, with this being his first crop on offer, but his juveniles have clearly held up their end of the bargain during the under-tack show. He had three horses breeze in 9.8 seconds, which tied with Lane's End's Twirling Candy for the most sub-:10 workers of the season among eligible sires. Then, he had another eight horses work in :10 flat. It's official: The Mitoles can go.

Mitole's top offering of the OBS March sale was Hip 317, a filly out of the Bodemeister mare Bodaciousness, who worked in :10-flat, then sold to Exline-Border Racing for $350,000. De Meric Sales consigned, as agent.

#4 – Twirling Candy, Lane's End

The Twirling Candy juveniles were blazing at the March sale, averaging 10.057 seconds for an eighth of a mile; best of his class to date. His trio of workers that stopped the clock in :9.8 at the OBS March sale is tied with Mitole for the most of the season so far.

Two of those fast breezers landed in the top 10 highest prices of the sale, led by Hip 433, a $1-million colt out of the Grade 2-placed Divine Park mare Divine Dawn who sold to Sean Flanigan. Eddie Woods consigned the seven-figure colt, as agent. That colt was joined by Hip 600, a filly out of the stakes-winning Congrats mare Laudation from the Wavertree consignment, who went to Hideyuki Mori for $900,000.

Twirling Candy's commercial profile has been on a steady climb after emerging from the third- and fourth-book doldrums, and as last week's results proved, buyers think he's the kind of stallion capable of being a source of seven-figure horses. I don't think that'll be a fluke going forward.

His median sale price of $150,000 will almost certainly sink over the course of the year as more middle-market horses are added to his ledger, the same way most stallions will, but it's fair to expect he'll safely end up in the six-figure median club for the foreseeable future.

#5 (tie) – Audible, WinStar Farm

The freshmen continue to make noise as we enter a four-way tie for fifth place.

Audible's biggest strength in the rankings came in the sales ring, where his median sale price through two sales is $180,000, placing him sixth. The group was led by Hip 450 at the OBS March sale, a filly out of the Midnight Lute mare Enjoy This Moment who sold to Carolyn Wilson for $500,000. Top Line Sales consigned the filly, as agent.

Audible ranked 12th by average breeze time, at 10.288 seconds. Of his 16 juveniles to breeze this season, four have gone an eighth in :10-flat, including Audible's high-selling filly.

Expectations will be high for Audible throughout the rest of the juvenile sale season, and onto the racetrack this summer. He trailed only Omaha Beach by median yearling price among rookie sires last year, with $110,000, and his juvenile median price is in the upper echelon among first-year sires in 2023. We've seen how well his sire, Into Mischief, has performed on this list, and Audible might be the next in line among his sons. No pressure, kid.

#5 (tie) – Bolt d'Oro, Spendthrift Farm

Last year's runner-up in the 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings continues to perform well and be received well from buyers with his second crop.

After finishing last year as the leading freshman sire by earnings, buyers have taken note with this year's offerings, giving him a median sale price of $165,000, good for seventh overall. Colts Neck Stable bought the most expensive of the group at the OBS March sale, going to $300,000 for Hip 15, a colt out of the Quality Road mare Scenic Road. From the direct female family of Broodmare of the Year Weekend Surprise, the colt was consigned by Paul Sharp, agent.

Bolt d'Oro was also responsible for the second-highest price of the Texas sale. Hip 85, a colt out of the Street Sense mare Gwithian, sold to Larry Hirsch for $160,000. The Oklahoma-bred hails from the family of champion Midshipman, Grade 1 winner Frosted, and multiple Grade 1-placed Solomini.

Bolt d'Oro was 11th by average breeze time, at 10.280 seconds. His 10 workers were led by Hip 510 at the OBS March sale, who breezed in :10-flat. The colt out of the Street Sense mare Grammajo sold to B 4 Farms, and he was consigned by Clary Bloodstock, agent.

#5 (tie) – Constitution, WinStar Farm

My, how the tables have turned. Constitution finished 82nd in last year's rankings, but a slate of speedy juveniles that sold well at the OBS March sale helped propel him to the top five through the first two sales.

The uptick in performance makes sense, considering these juveniles were conceived the year after Constitution's electric freshman season, where he tallied the most winners and graded stakes winners in his class, and was on the podium in several other categories. Breeders flocked to Constitution in 2020 with both quality and quantity, and his 146-head year-over-year increase in mares bred was the most by any North American stallion that season. Once the son of Tapit proved he could get a good 2-year-old, doors clearly opened for him.

Constitution ranked 13th by average breeze time through the first two sales, with his 12 workers at an eighth of a mile averaging :10.300 seconds. He had four juveniles breeze in :10-flat, and his median sale price of $202,500 placed him fifth-best among qualifying sires.

His highest-priced offering at OBS March contributed to his success in both categories. Hip 574, a colt out of the Grade 3-placed Lion Heart mare Jungle Tale, covered an eighth in :10-flat, then he sold to Lauren Carlisle, agent for $675,000. Sequel Bloodstock consigned the colt, as agent.

#5 (tie) – Hard Spun, Darley

A veteran presence with fast juveniles closes out the list. His six workers at an eighth of a mile through the first two sales averaged a time of 10.200 seconds (or :10 1/5 even if you're counting in fifths), to tie him with Mitole for fourth overall.

Hard Spun's fastest worker so far is also his top seller. Hip 16 at the OBS March sale clocked one furlong in 9.8 seconds for consignor Kings Equine, agent for Spendthrift Farm. Then, he sold to Ron Ellis, agent, for $325,000.

If the season stopped now, Hard Spun's median juvenile sale price of $125,000 (14th best on this list) would be his best performance since 2016, which was the final crop conceived before his season in Japan. He finished last year in 32nd place by median at $65,000, so even if the middle and lower market horses of the later season drag his figure down a bit, he should still end the season ahead of where he was.

The post The 2023 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings Presented By Fire At Will: Reshuffling The Deck After Texas Sale appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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