Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham Festival Thursday 14th March
The Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham is a race steeped in history and prestige, often seen as the ultimate test for long-distance hurdlers. As we look ahead to the next festival, analysing the trends can provide us with a blueprint for identifying potential winners. Here’s a summary of the most significant trends for the winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle:
Age:
- The prime age for winners is between 6 and 8 years old, with 9 of the last 12 winners falling within this age range.
Betting Odds:
- Favourites have a fair chance, with 3 of the last 12 winners being the betting favourites. Moreover, 5 of the 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting odds.
Recent Performance:
- A win in their last run is a strong indicator, as 6 of the last 12 winners won their last race before the Stayers’ Hurdle. Additionally, 10 of the 12 winners had their last run within 80 days of the race.
Course Form:
- Experience at Cheltenham is crucial, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least one previous run at the course, and 7 winners having at least one previous win there.
Distance Form:
- Proven stamina over similar distances is important, with 9 of the last 12 winners having at least 3 runs over 23-25 furlongs, and 8 winners having at least 2 wins over this distance.
Hurdle Form:
- A solid track record over hurdles is key, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least 8 previous runs over hurdles, and 10 winners having at least 4 previous wins over hurdles.
Rating:
- A higher official rating is common among winners, with 9 of the last 12 winners being rated 156 or higher.
Grade Wins:
- Success in high-grade races is a good predictor, with 9 of the last 12 winners having at least one previous Grade 1 win, and the same number having at least one Grade 2 win.
Season Form:
- Consistency throughout the season is essential, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least 2 runs that season, and 8 winners having at least one win that season.
Future Form:
- The Stayers’ Hurdle can be a stepping stone to further success, with 5 of the last 12 winners winning on their next run after Cheltenham, and 4 placing on their next run.
