There are now 25 days until the first Saturday in May: with two favorites and one serious longshot capturing the final 100-point prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, the final picture of which horses might enter that sacred starting gate is starting to become clear.
This year's Run for the Roses is expected to include a pair of runners from Japan: Derma Sotogake, winner of the UAE Derby, and Continuar, whose connections accepted an invitation via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series. Both have arrived at Churchill Downs and begun preparing for the races.
Meanwhile, Japan-based Mandarin Hero ran a huge race to finish second by a nose to Practical Move in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby. Unfortunately, the 40 points that colt earned will not be enough to make the main body of the race, but connections are holding out hope that a few defections will make room for Mandarin Hero's participation and have canceled their return flight to Japan.
Four horses based in Japan have run in the Kentucky Derby: Ski Captain (14th, 1995), Lani (9th, 2016), Master Fencer (6th, 2019), and Crown Pride (13th in 2022).
At this time, it appears unlikely that Brave Emperor will accept the European Road to the Kentucky Derby invitation.
One final prep race remains: the April 15 Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. It will offer points to the top 5 finishers of 20-8-6-4-2. Entries will be taken Wednesday, but the possible starters include Confidence Game (Keith Desormeaux), Curly Larry and Mo (Caio Caramori), First Mission (Brad Cox), Midnight Rising (Jordan Blair), Victory Formation (Cox), and Disarm (Steve Asmussen).
Among those, Confidence Game already possesses enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field with 57, though he hasn't started since the Rebel on Feb. 25 and would be running in the Lexington just three weeks before the Kentucky Derby, an unusual pattern for modern-day trainers. Victory Formation has 10 points on the leaderboard, so even if he were to win the Lexington, his resulting total of 30 points would not be enough to make the field.
Disarm, however, has 40 points as things stand, and could progress to the main body of the field by finishing either first or second. In his only graded stakes start, Disarm (Gun Runner) ran second in the Louisiana Derby behind Kingsbarns.
The current leaderboard is as follows:
- Forte (190)
- Practical Move (160)
- Angel of Empire (154)
- Tapit Trice (150)
- Two Phil's (123)
- Derma Sotogake (100)
- Lord Miles (100)
- Kingsbarns (100)
- Raise Cain (64)
- Rocket Can (60)
- Hit Show (60)
- Confidence Game (57)
- Verifying (54)
- Sun Thunder (54)
- Wild On Ice (50)
- Mage (50)
- Blazing Sevens (46)
- Reincarnate (45)
- Jace's Road (45)
- ***Continuar, Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby invitee
- Skinner (45)
- Cyclone Mischief (45)
- Major Dude (40)
- Mandarin Hero (40)
- King Russell (40)
- Disarm (40)
The full Kentucky Derby leaderboard, updated after the action on April 8, is available here: 20230408 Road to Kentucky Derby Leaderboard
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