The Unibet Champion Hurdle Stats

The Unibet Champion Hurdle (4:00 Cheltenham, Tuesday 10th March 2026) field has been finalized following the 24-hour declarations. With State Man and Constitution Hill both absent due to injury/retirement, the 2026 renewal is an open, high-class affair dominated by three elite mares and the progressive British hope, The New Lion.

The going is currently Good to Soft (Good in places) on the Old Course.

Key Trends (Last 12 Years)

1. The “Mare” Era (4/12): 33% of recent winners have been mares receiving the 7lb allowance. In this specific field, the top three in the betting are all mares.
2. Age (12/12): Every winner since 2013 was aged 6, 7, or 8. (The New Lion is 7; Lossiemouth is 7; Brighterdaysahead is 7).
3. Cheltenham Festival Form (10/12): Winners almost always have a previous win or top-three finish at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
4. Last Time Out (11/12): 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top two on their final start before Cheltenham.
5. Grade 1 Success (12/12): A previous Grade 1 win is a non-negotiable statistical requirement.

—

Runner Analysis & Order of Preference

1. LOSSIEMOUTH (W.P. Mullins)

Trend Fit: Perfect. A 7-year-old mare (ideal age) with three previous Festival wins (Triumph and 2x Mares’). She receives the 7lb allowance and is unbeaten at Cheltenham.
Verdict: She is the “statistical lock.” Although beaten by Brighterdaysahead on heavy ground at Leopardstown, the return to Good to Soft and her flawless course record make her the primary trend pick. The application of first-time cheekpieces is a classic Mullins “sharpening” move.

2. THE NEW LION (Dan Skelton)

Trend Fit: Strong. A 7-year-old who won the Turners at this meeting last year. He is 5-for-5 in completed hurdle starts and won the Unibet Hurdle (Trials Day) on this course in January.
Verdict: He is the best of the “boys” and fits the “improving Grade 1 winner” trend perfectly. He is the main threat to the mares, especially with the Skelton yard’s exceptional strike rate this season.

3. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (Gordon Elliott)

Trend Fit: High Class. A 7-year-old mare who beat Lossiemouth in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out.
Verdict: While she is technically the “form” horse after her Leopardstown win, she has been beaten at the last two Cheltenham Festivals when sent off as favorite. Trends favor those with proven winning course form, which gives Lossiemouth the edge.

4. GOLDEN ACE (Jeremy Scott)

Trend Fit: Solid. The “defending champion” (won the 2025 renewal). She also won the Mares’ Novice at the 2024 Festival.
Verdict: She is a course specialist. While she capitalized on falls from leaders last year, her recent Grade 1 win in the Fighting Fifth proves she belongs at this level. She fits the “previous winner” trend perfectly but may find the top two slightly speedier on this ground.

5. TUTTI QUANTI (Paul Nicholls)

Trend Fit: The “Improver.” A 6-year-old (ideal age) supplemented for this race after a dominant win in the William Hill Hurdle.
Verdict: He is following the “Espoir d’Allen” trend—a young, rapidly improving horse supplemented late. However, he lacks the Grade 1 experience that all 12 of the last winners possessed.

6. ALEXEI (Joe Tizzard)

Trend Fit: 6-year-old, won the Greatwood Hurdle on this course earlier this season.
Verdict: A smart handicapper making the leap to Grade 1. Statistically, horses stepping up from handicaps struggle to beat established Grade 1 mares.

7. PONIROS / ANZADAM (W.P. Mullins)

Verdict: Both are 5/6-year-olds from the Mullins yard but were soundly beaten by the principals at Leopardstown. They fit the trainer trend but fall short on the “Last Time Out” and “Class” metrics.

8. WORKAHEAD (Henry de Bromhead)

Verdict: An 8-year-old outsider. While the trainer is a Champion Hurdle specialist (Honeysuckle), this horse’s recent form (50/1) is well below the required trend rating of 150+.

—

Final Trend-Based Ranking

1. Lossiemouth (Course form, 7lb allowance, and perfect age)
2. The New Lion (Best male prospect, unbeaten when completing, course winner)
3. Brighterdaysahead (Elite form, but lacks a Cheltenham win)
4. Golden Ace (Defending champ, but faces a tougher task this year)
5. Tutti Quanti (The interesting improver for place purposes)
6. Alexei (Best of the longshots due to course form)

Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices Chase Stats

Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) Trend Analysis: Final Order of Preference

With Romeo Coolio now confirmed for the Brown Advisory on Wednesday, here is the updated ranking for the 2:00 Arkle based on the latest 24-hour declarations and the drying ground conditions.

1. KOPEK DES BORDES (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Neutral/Positive. While he has form on soft, his high-cruising speed is ideally suited to Good to Soft.
Trend Match: The 6-year-old fits the “Supreme winner to Arkle” trend perfectly. With the extended run-in, his proven stamina from his hurdle days gives him the edge.
Verdict: He is the most complete trend pick for a race of this stature.

2. LULAMBA (Nicky Henderson)

Ground Impact: Very Positive. Henderson’s stars almost always prefer “Good” in the description. This ground allows him to use his slick, flat-racing-style jumping.
Trend Match: Still faces the “5-year-old” statistic (0 wins in 15 years), but his OR 163 is 5lbs clear of the field.
Verdict: The ground has moved in his favor. If he handles the hill after the long run-in, he could easily break the age trend.

3. KARGESE (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Positive. She thrived on Good to Soft when winning here last year.
Trend Match: A 6-year-old mare receiving a 7lb allowance. Her close second in the Irish Arkle is now the strongest piece of “trial” form left in the race.
Verdict: The most reliable each-way bet in the race. She is statistically “due” a win given the strength of the Irish Arkle form line.

4. STEEL ALLY (Sam Thomas)

Ground Impact: Negative. His best performances have come on deeper ground (Soft/Heavy). The drying surface might make this too much of a speed test for him.
Trend Match: An 8-year-old, which is slightly older than the ideal 6-7 bracket.
Verdict: A progressive jumper, but the ground and age trends suggest he may struggle to match the gears of the top three.

5. JAX JUNIOR (Lucy Wadham)

Ground Impact: Neutral.
Trend Match: 7-year-old, won a Grade 2 last time.
Verdict: His rating (146) is simply too low. Trends show winners are almost always rated 150+.

6. IRISH PANTHER (W.P. Mullins)

Ground Impact: Unknown.
Trend Match: Late addition to the primary contenders. While he represents Mullins, he lacks the Graded chase win that 11 of the last 12 winners possessed.
Verdict: Likely a pace-setter for his stablemates.

7. HANSARD / MAMBONUMBERFIVE

Verdict: Both are massive trend outsiders. Hansard is poorly handicapped on chase ratings, and Mambonumberfive is a 5-year-old with jumping concerns that the long run-in will likely exploit.

—

Final Ranking Summary

1. Kopek Des Bordes (Perfect age/trainer/stamina profile)
2. Lulamba (Class standout; ground suits, but age trend is the worry)
3. Kargese (Strongest form line + weight allowance)
4. Steel Ally (Sturdy but potentially outpaced)

The weather and ground report for tomorrow, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, have significantly clarified the picture for the Arkle. After a dry period and selective watering by Clerk of the Course Jon Pullin, the official going is now Good to Soft (Good in places).

The forecast for Tuesday is mainly dry with sunny intervals and highs of 14°C, though some light drizzle remains a possibility. Crucially, the final flight on the Old Course has been moved closer to the home bend due to wet patches earlier in the winter, creating a longer run-in that will test stamina and jumping fluency under pressure.

Verified by MonsterInsights