Horse Racing Free Tips

Cheltenham 13th Dec 2025, Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) 13.50 UK Time:

The Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase over two miles four furlongs at Cheltenham looks a properly competitive renewal on this good to soft ground, with the New Course likely to ride on the faster side given recent reports.

Several protagonists bring strong recent claims, though fitness after breaks and jumping fluency will be key in a race that often catches out the less assured.

Starting with Jagwar, trained by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero with Jonjo O’Neill junior aboard.

He arrives on the back of a confidence-boosting victory in the Festival Plate over this very course and distance back in March on similar good to soft ground, where he quickened smartly to score snugly despite idling.

That represented a career best in terms of class, building on a string of hurdle successes the prior season, and he has the scope to handle this stiffer test after a 275-day absence.

His jumping was sound that day, and while the layoff is a query, his yard has a fine record in staying chases.

Ground suits ideally, though he has yet to prove it on a truly testing surface.

Vincenzo, for Sam Thomas and Dylan Johnston, shaped with real promise when runner-up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over two miles here just four weeks ago on softer ground, battling on gamely despite hanging under pressure and not quite seeing it out.

Prior to that, he had strung together a trio of placed efforts in handicaps, including a narrow second over fences at Perth on good to soft in September.

This step up to two four will unlock more improvement, and his recent fitness is a plus, though his jumping can occasionally lack polish, which could be exposed in this bigger field.

He handles good to soft well enough from earlier runs, but has no prior experience around here, so trackcraft is another unknown.

Hoe Joly Smoke represents Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton, and he posted back-to-back thirds of late, including a staying-on effort behind Vincenzo in that Paddy Power over two miles soft here last month, and another respectable third over three one at the October meeting on heavy.

Those runs suggest the return to two four will suit better than further, and the quicker ground today is a clear plus after he found softer conditions testing his stamina.

His jumping has improved this term, and with solid experience in graded company, he arrives in good heart, though he needs to raise his game another notch to challenge the principals.

Kim Roque, hailing from Joseph O’Brien’s yard with Richard Deegan riding, caught the eye with a fluent second over two miles here on soft 27 days back, where a minor error at the last cost him the contest against a subsequent winner.

That was his first taste of Cheltenham, and he jumped boldly throughout, hinting at untapped ability now tackling this longer trip for the first time.

A prior second at Galway on yielding earlier in the year confirms his wellbeing on give in the ground, and while lightly raced over fences, his class jumps off the page from Irish form.

Fitness shouldn’t be an issue post-break, making him an intriguing contender if settling as well as last time.

Colonel Harry, under Jamie Snowden and Gavin Sheehan, returned in cracking style when taking the Grand Sefton at Aintree over two five on good to soft just 25 days ago, quickening clear after a minor mistake midway and showing no ill effects from a long absence.

That was a career peak in open company, and while he sadly departed early when held up over this course and distance in January on heavy, his jumping is otherwise reliable, and the sounder surface today will help.

He thrives on quickening ground like this, with prior successes on good to soft, and his battling attitude gives him every chance to defy his advancing years in this sphere.

Imperial Saint, prepared by Philip Hobbs and Johnson White with Sean Houlihan up, ran a creditable fifth in the Old Roan at Aintree over two miles good to soft 48 days ago, not disgraced in top company despite racing freely.

He had gone close over course and distance here on Trials Day in January on soft, staying on well, and brings solid handicap form from last term with three chase victories.

The ground is fine, though he seems to find his best on a stiff track like this, and a quiet enough preparation suggests peak fitness for his reappearance.

Il Ridoto, from Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden, has been somewhat frustrating this autumn with an eighth over two miles soft here last time out, not at his sparkling best despite travelling well for much of the race.

He does hold plenty of course form, including placed efforts over this distance on good to soft in the past, and quicker conditions could coax more out of him.

Experience is no issue in this company, but recent inconsistency tempers enthusiasm, even if his trainer’s record here is exemplary.

Martator, for Venetia Williams and Charlie Deutsch, bounced back encouragingly with a second at Ascot over two one good to soft three weeks ago, keeping on gamely after a steady pace didn’t suit.

That followed a lacklustre start to the campaign, but he shaped as if craving this longer trip, and the ground will pose no problems based on prior runs.

Cheltenham hasn’t always fired with him, with modest efforts here last season, but his yard won this last year, and he’s worth another chance on his opening mark.

Es Perfecto, with Alan King and Tom Bellamy, sadly pulled up over two miles soft here last month after a laboured effort, unable to get competitive despite previous hints of ability.

He has occasional placed runs over course and distance on good to soft, but at ten years old and with limited recent zip, this looks a tough ask, though his trainer is in form.

Glengouly, trained by Faye Bramley and ridden by Sean Bowen, filled fourth over an inadequate one seven soft here 27 days back, not knocked about once held.

The step up in trip could suit given his staying pedigree, and he impressed with his jumping that day, but off a lengthy losing run and carrying plenty of weight, he faces stiff opposition on this ground he handles adequately.

Simulation Results:

Colonel Harry 59.7%, Jagwar 24.7%, Vincenzo 13.1%, Hoe Joly Smoke 2.4%, Kim Roque 0.1%, Il Ridoto 0.0%, Imperial Saint 0.0%, Martator 0.0%, Es Perfecto 0.0%, Glengouly 0.0%.

Equivalent fair fractional odds from these chances: Colonel Harry 2/3, Jagwar 3/1, Vincenzo 13/2, Hoe Joly Smoke 40/1, Kim Roque 1000/1, Il Ridoto 9999/1 (approximated), and the rest similarly prohibitive.

The best bet is Colonel Harry, whose recent Grand Sefton romp and affinity for this ground mark him as the standout.

For two value selections, Jagwar at 10/3 live offers marginal value against his 3/1 fair price, while Colonel Harry at 10/1 represents enormous value versus his 2/3 fair assessment.

Steamer bets highlight Kim Roque, whose price has contracted from 6/1 early to 7/2 live—a shift of over 2 points—aligned with his promising Cheltenham debut and ground suitability, though no second qualifier meets the four-point shortening threshold among credible chances.