Horse Racing Free Tips

Win £250,000 With BetMGM’s Golden Goals Handicap (Class 5) Newcastle 18.15:

Jesmond Dawn merits top billing after a valiant near-miss here over this precise course and distance last month, where he quickened purposefully to lead inside the final furlong before just being caught in the dying strides.

That effort, on the all-weather surface where he has consistently raised his game, highlighted his sharp current condition and suitability for these testing bends, and with just a minor penalty to carry, he appears primed to go one better in this field.

His experience in handling moderate gallops adds to his appeal, particularly from a midfield draw that should allow him to stalk the pace without undue expenditure.

King’s School commands respect following a battling victory over seven furlongs at Newcastle in late December last year, where he saw off a subsequent winner with evident relish after travelling comfortably throughout.

He has shown a marked affinity for this tapeta track, with all his best efforts emerging under standard conditions, and his ongoing fitness from a winter campaign suggests he remains a potent force at this level.

Flying Fletcher arrives on the back of a respectable fifth over six furlongs here earlier this month, keeping on gamely despite being denied a clear run at a crucial stage.

That run offered clear evidence of his well-being on the all-weather, where he has notched prior successes, and the step up in trip should unlock more from his grinding style, especially given his low draw that favours an economical passage.

Bobby Joe Leg has endured a leaner spell lately, with a sixth-placing at Southwell in early April representing his most recent effort of note before a summer break.

He boasts a strong record around these turns, including multiple triumphs over similar distances on tapeta, and a freshened-up return could see him revive if the surface suits his renewed vigour.

Gressington shaped with encouragement when third at Redcar 28 days ago, staying on strongly in the closing stages of a seven-furlong handicap despite racing prominently in a race lacking pace.

His all-weather exploits have been laced with promise, particularly at tracks with undulations like this, and with proven stamina at the trip, he holds every chance to build on that grit from a handy stall.

Asian Journey enters after a subdued showing at Ffos Las in early July, where he faded having shown early dash over a mile that stretched his limits.

However, he has flashed snippets of ability on all-weather surfaces in novice company, and a drop into handicaps for the first time could coax improvement if the leaders set a stronger rhythm.

Novak has been consistent without quite striking lately, filling tenth over six furlongs here in November after a tardy break from the gates that cost him dearly.

His recent second at Southwell over this distance confirmed his affinity for tapeta, and with regular action keeping him race-fit, he remains competitively handicapped to challenge if breaking sharper.

The Cookstown Cafu has course form to call upon, having placed here previously, but his latest tenth over six furlongs 10 days ago suggested the return to sprinting didn’t quite suit.

He copes well with standard going from past efforts, and the return to seven furlongs might elicit a more fluent display, though greater sharpness will be needed.

Bajan Bandit endured traffic issues when eighth over course and distance last month, but he kept on late once in the clear, hinting at retained ability.

His all-weather record is solid, with prior placings underscoring his track suitability, and a more patient ride could see him rally better in this company.

Maxi Boy laboured to last in a higher-grade affair here over seven furlongs in November, beaten a long way after being hampered in running.

He has the tools to do better on tapeta, but his recent lack of fluency tempers expectations without signs of a revival.

Wilde And Dandy faces a stiff task on the evidence of recent toils, with a distant finish at Wolverhampton last out offering little cheer.

The all-weather holds no fears, yet his current enthusiasm appears waning in handicaps.

Simulation Results:

Jesmond Dawn: 23.67% (implied 15/4).

King’s School: 17.89% (implied 9/2).

Flying Fletcher: 15.45% (implied 11/2).

Gressington: 12.34% (implied 7/1).

Novak: 10.23% (implied 8/1).

Bobby Joe Leg: 9.11% (implied 10/1).

Asian Journey: 6.78% (implied 14/1).

The Cookstown Cafu: 4.53% (implied 21/1).

Bajan Bandit: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Maxi Boy: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Wilde And Dandy: 0.00% (implied N/A).

The best bet is Jesmond Dawn, his track mastery and closing kick affording him the acme in the model.

Value selections spotlight Gressington at 9/1 live, undervalued relative to 7/1 implied odds considering his recent staying power.

Steamer bets nominate King’s School and Flying Fletcher, both with live prices (4/1 and 9/4) shortening from early marks (9/2 and 5/1) while featuring among the elite projections.

Make The Move To Midnite Handicap (GBBPlus Race) (Class 4) Newcastle 15.12:

Machete merits the utmost respect after a solid third in a competitive handicap at Doncaster last month, where he travelled powerfully before keeping on resolutely despite the testing finish.

That marked a clear step forward from his earlier efforts since arriving from France, highlighting his adaptation to British methods and a clear liking for softer surfaces, though his prior all-weather runs suggest the standard going here will pose no issues.

With limited exposure at this trip, he brings untapped potential to the table, and his ongoing fitness from steady campaigning positions him ideally to strike in this grade.

Trojan Sun commands attention on the back of a determined victory at Musselburgh in October, where he dictated affairs and repelled all challengers in a gritty display of stamina.

He has thrived on the all-weather in winter campaigns, with prior success over similar trips confirming his affinity for the surface, and his recent sharpness under a top rider bodes well for a bold showing back at this venue.

Relocal arrives with progressive credentials, having filled the runner-up spot at Kempton recently after a slow start that cost him ground, yet he closed with menace once in the clear.

This was a marked improvement from his seasonal bow, underscoring his growing maturity and suitability for polytrack, where he has shown snippets of class, and a patient ride from the stalls could unlock further enhancement.

Haveyoumissedme has been a model of reliability in staying tests, producing a staying-on fourth at Haydock last time when denied a clear run in the straight but rallying gamely.

His record on all-weather tracks is laced with encouragement, particularly over extended distances, and with proven experience in handicaps, he remains competitively weighted to challenge if the pace holds up.

Loving Look shaped with promise when third over course and distance in September, making smooth progress before just finding one too good in a tactical affair.

She has a proven liking for this circuit’s undulations and the standard surface, where her best efforts have emerged, and her current well-being suggests she could mount a stronger bid with a more forward position.

Miners Gamble enters on the crest of a breakthrough success at Musselburgh in August, where he quickened smartly to score on his first attempt at this trip, revealing a new dimension to his ability.

That effort on good to soft ground hinted at versatility, but his prior all-weather placings add reassurance, and with the benefit of a pipe-opener since, he looks primed for another forward move.

Promethean has been knocking on the door lately, filling a close fourth at Southwell 25 days ago when staying on stoutly after a wide passage that cost him momentum.

He has a solid affinity for tapeta, with prior course form bolstering his claims, and his grinding style should ensure he features prominently if the leaders overdo it early.

Atlantic Sunset brings respectable continuity, having claimed second at Wolverhampton in his latest outing where he travelled well before just being collared late.

This confirmed his ongoing affinity for all-weather tracks, and with a drop in the weights since his last win, coupled with recent vigour, he holds every chance to reverse recent verdicts.

Return To Dubai has endured a testing spell, with a subdued sixth at Redcar last month offering little in the way of optimism on his return from a break.

However, he has flashed ability on all-weather surfaces in the past, and a first run for new connections could spark a revival, though greater fluency is required.

Annandale arrives after a middling fifth at Ayr recently, where she shaped with some early zip but faded in the closing stages.

She has occasional sparks on standard going, but her inconsistency tempers enthusiasm in this stronger field.

Zephlyn has toiled in recent handicaps, her latest effort yielding a distant finish at Musselburgh that offered scant encouragement.

The all-weather holds no fears on paper, yet her current form suggests she faces a stiff task to reverse the tide.

Simulation Results:

Machete: 22.45% (implied 7/2).

Trojan Sun: 17.89% (implied 9/2).

Relocal: 15.67% (implied 11/2).

Miners Gamble: 13.22% (implied 13/2).

Haveyoumissedme: 10.98% (implied 8/1).

Loving Look: 9.45% (implied 9/1).

Atlantic Sunset: 6.78% (implied 14/1).

Promethean: 3.56% (implied 27/1).

Return To Dubai: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Annandale: 0.00% (implied N/A).

Zephlyn: 0.00% (implied N/A).

The best bet is Machete, his progressive profile and stamina edge giving him primacy in the forecasts.

Value selections feature Relocal at 9/2 live, a compelling overlay against his 11/2 fair value, and Loving Look at 15/2 live, undervalued relative to 9/1 implied odds in view of her track suitability.

Steamer bets nominate Machete and Minors Gamble, with live quotes (9/4 and 5/1) showing marked contractions from early tags (7/2 and 10/1) while topping the simulated chances.

Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Class 6) Lingfield 13.30:

Chico Dulce arrives in cracking nick following a clear-cut victory over this precise course and distance last month, where he made smooth headway from off the pace before powering clear in the closing stages.

That marked a return to his best on the all-weather surface, where he has always shown the most aptitude, and the slight rise in the weights should not deter him from building on that effort in this similar contest.

His recent fitness is evident from regular action, and with a patient ride from the stalls, he holds every chance to dictate again.

Quite Sweet warrants strong consideration after scoring on turf last time, demonstrating improved resolve when grinding out success in a testing finish that played to her stamina.

She has shaped with promise in prior all-weather assignments, suggesting the switch back to this surface will hold no fears, and her ongoing progress under a canny handler positions her as a bold contender if the tempo suits.

Warrnambool has been a model of reliability on the all-weather lately, filling the runner-up spot here over a mile in October when staying on purposefully under pressure.

That effort confirmed his affinity for these conditions and the track’s undulations, while his consistent profile and recent sharpness indicate he remains competitively handicapped.

Rovinia has shown marked improvement since joining her current yard, with two solid efforts over similar trips highlighting her growing confidence and ability to handle the polytrack demands.

A recent staying-on third on turf was full of encouragement, and the return to this venue could unlock more, especially given her experience in handling moderate gallops.

Villalobos enters on the back of a respectable second at Kempton last month, where he travelled well before just being outstayed in the shadows of the post.

He has a proven liking for all-weather tracks, with prior successes on polytrack underscoring his suitability, and his current well-being suggests he could challenge stoutly if the leaders come back to him.

Jet Packer shaped with real encouragement when runner-up here 13 days ago, making late headway after a tardy start and keeping on gamely once in the firing line.

That was a career best on the all-weather, where he appears to act well around the turns, and with the benefit of that run under his belt, he looks primed to go one better.

Haveagobeau has been knocking on the door consistently, rallying to claim fourth over course and distance in November despite racing wide for much of the journey.

His tenacity in the finish that day bodes well for these conditions, and a more economical trip from the draw could see him mount a stronger case in this field.

Celtic John arrives after a subdued effort at Wolverhampton last month, but he has flashed ability on all-weather surfaces in the past, particularly when held up for a late rattle.

A drop in the grades and return to a track he knows could coax a revival, though greater fluency in his settling is required.

Mr Fustic has endured a lean spell, with recent outings yielding little in the way of encouragement on the all-weather.

He has occasional sparks of his former ability, but his lack of zip lately tempers enthusiasm despite the lenient terms.

Dios De La Guerra has toiled in recent handicaps, showing only modest speed on all-weather tracks and struggling to quicken off moderate tempos.

His experience counts for something, but a return to form looks necessary from a basement mark.

Invincible Storm has laboured through a barren run, with his latest effort at Chelmsford yielding a distant finish that offered scant promise.

The all-weather holds no terrors on paper, yet his current fitness and enthusiasm appear in question.

Mighty Ruler rounds off the field on the back of a tame showing at Lingfield in September, where he faded tamely having shown early speed.

He has the tools to do better on this surface, but greater conviction is needed to suggest he can land a blow here.

Simulation Results:

Chico Dulce: 24.33% (implied 3/1).

Quite Sweet: 16.89% (implied 9/2).

Warrnambool: 14.67% (implied 11/2).

Jet Packer: 12.45% (implied 13/2).

Rovinia: 10.23% (implied 8/1).

Villalobos: 9.76% (implied 9/1).

Haveagobeau: 6.54% (implied 14/1).

Mr Fustic: 2.11% (implied 46/1).

Dios De La Guerra: 1.89% (implied 51/1).

Celtic John: 1.12% (implied 88/1).

Invincible Storm: 0.56% (implied 177/1).

Mighty Ruler: 0.45% (implied 221/1).

The best bet is Chico Dulce, his course mastery and progressive profile giving him the edge in the projections.

Value selections include Warrnambool at 5/1 live, a clear overlay against his 11/2 fair value, and Jet Packer at 6/1 live, undervalued relative to 13/2 implied odds given his recent promise.

Steamer bets go to Chico Dulce and Quite Sweet, both drifting from early prices (9/4 to 5/2 and 5/2 to 5/2 respectively, but with market signals indicating support building) while leading the win forecasts.

Join Southwell Golf Club Handicap Chase (Class 5) 13.22 Southwell:

Livy’s Lad headlines the field after a transformative debut over fences here over this exact course and distance just 18 days ago, where he quickened smartly to score with authority despite some early seasoning.

That marked a stark improvement from his prior hurdles efforts elsewhere, revealing a clear penchant for softer ground that matches today’s good to soft going, and his limited exposure to chasing suggests ample room for further enhancement in this grade.

The subsequent rise in the weights looks fair against rivals of this calibre, and his evident zest points to a repeat bid from a forward position.

Take Centre Stage has been knocking on the door consistently, producing a strong-travelling second at Wetherby in his latest engagement, where he closed with real purpose but just lacked the turn of foot to overhaul the winner.

He has a proven affinity for yielding conditions from earlier successes, aligning well with the surface here, and his battle-tested stamina at extended trips, allied to recent sharpness, makes him a serious player if the pace remains honest.

Texard arrives in fine fettle following a solid second at Hexham last time, a performance that reaffirmed his grinding tenacity and current well-being after a sequence of encouraging placed runs.

His best work has come on softer terrain in the past, a key positive for these conditions, and with frequent recent runs under his belt, he boasts the fitness to challenge stoutly if the leaders falter late on.

We Got Your Back shaped with promise when third over fences at Market Rasen back in June, showing improved application after a patchy spell, though he has been off the boil since that effort.

His record on good to soft ground is encouraging, and the alliance with a top jockey could refine his racecraft, potentially elevating him in this moderate company should he return in similar heart.

Flash In The Park has course form to lean on, having filled a placing here previously, but his recent eighth at Uttoxeter was compromised by the heavy going that sapped his momentum.

He has thrived on good to soft in prior outings, which could coax a more fluent display today, and his overall condition from steady racing suggests he may rally if the gallop heats up sufficiently.

Glajou has held his form at a reliable level without quite landing a telling blow of late, with a string of respectable but unremarkable efforts underscoring his dependability rather than outright brilliance.

He has navigated softer surfaces with credit in the past, and while shouldering top weight, his chase experience could allow him to pick off tiring rivals in the closing stages.

Zara’s Universe has found life tough in recent months, her last appearance yielding a subdued sixth at Market Rasen back in April before an extended absence.

She has shown sparks on good to soft before, and the drastic drop in the ratings might precipitate a resurgence, though her jumping efficiency will need to be spot on for any revival.

Chateau Du Lys faces a tough ask judged on his novice hurdle flop at Ffos Las last month, where he trailed in a distant last of 12 amid evident struggles.

The step back to chasing might suit better, but his greenness and lack of fluency lately raise doubts about his preparedness, despite the lenient mark.

Simulation results:

Livy’s Lad: 27.89% (implied 5/2).

Take Centre Stage: 17.41% (implied 9/2).

Texard: 15.67% (implied 11/2).

We Got Your Back: 13.22% (implied 13/2).

Flash In The Park: 10.84% (implied 8/1).

Glajou: 8.76% (implied 10/1).

Zara’s Universe: 3.89% (implied 24/1).

Chateau Du Lys: 2.32% (implied 42/1).

The best bet is Livy’s Lad, his venue mastery and chase upside setting him apart in the projections.

Value selections feature Take Centre Stage at 9/1 live, presenting a clear edge over his 9/2 fair line, and Flash In The Park at 5/1 live, undervalued against 8/1 implied odds in light of his track suitability.

Steamer bets nominate Livy’s Lad and Flash In The Park, both contracting sharply from early prices (11/8 to 5/6 and 6/1 to 5/1) while registering among the highest simulated chances.