Horse Racing Free Tips

In North America's commercial stallion game, they don't tend to keep you around unless you're doing something right.

Every year, we see an exodus of stallions to regional and international markets, or the pensioner life, when farms believe a horse can no longer hack it as either a sire of commercial prospects or runners. The process of becoming the type of “made man” who isn't playing for his job every season is different for every farm and every sire, but one way or another, every one of them must prove himself.

With that proven status often comes a higher stud fee to show that some of the risks and question marks have been removed from a stallion's resume. If you know roughly what you're going to get, that's worth something.

Though the “proven” status often comes at a premium, there are still plenty of veteran stallions out there standing for $20,000 or less who have shown over the years that they can put a winner on your mare's produce record. This time around, we'll take a look at two divisions of the All-Value Sire Team known for their reliability – The Veteran and The Sprinter.

To see who else has made the team this year, click here.

To view the extensive chart I've used to track 159 value sires by 51 different statistical categories to aid in my decision-making process, sign up for our Patreon. 

Let's get on with the show.

The Veteran: A sire with at least five crops of racing age in 2024. His reputation is pretty much set in terms of what kind of foal he can get you, which means it's easier to plan what kind of mares might work best with him.

First Team: Midshipman

Ch. h., 2006, Unbridled's Song x Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags
Standing at Darley, KY, $15,000

The year might have changed, but the song remains the same – Midshipman is one of the safest bets on the board.

If you're looking to get a winner under your mare's produce record, Midshipman tracks at 58 percent winners from horses of racing age, which trails only The Factor (62 percent) and Take Charge Indy (59 percent) among significant value sire contenders. It's also a higher percentage of winners from horses of racing age than all North American stallions standing for $70,000 or more except Tapit (62 percent) and War Front (58 percent).

Though Midshipman was himself a champion juvenile, this is not an indication that his runners are “one and done” types when it comes to winning. His progeny win 16 percent of their total races, which ties him for the highest among significant Kentucky stallions standing for $20,000 or less, and his WOW figure (wins divided by winners) of 3.44 wins per winner trails only First Samurai (3.65) among Kentucky value sires.

I know what you're thinking: Wins are fine, but can Midshipman take you to the next level? His six percent stakes winners from foals of racing age is tied for the highest among significant North American value sires, and it puts him in the mix with stallions standing for multiples of his fee.

The ways that Midshipman's runners have won those stakes races suggest he can cook with whatever ingredients the mare brings to the recipe. Amidst Waves and Ship Cadet did damage in the 2-year-old sprint ranks during this year's Saratoga meet, while 3-year-old Back To Ohio has won eight of nine career starts and absolutely dominated the state-bred stakes scene, going around one turn and two.

As a son of Unbridled's Song, Midshipman could have easily fallen prey to having a fine-boned appearance, but he has plenty of substance, likely helped along by his broodmare sire Avenue of Flags, a stout son of the equally stout Seattle Slew who was extremely fast out of the gates as a juvenile.

Though Midshipman was a Breeders' Cup winner around two turns, his frame skews more toward a sprinter's, with a relatively compact, strong build and solid bone, and his best foals have tended to follow in that notion.

We've seen that carry on through future generations, as well. One of Midshipman's best runners was Lady Shipman, who came within a neck of beating the boys in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Lady Shipman is herself the dam of the elite turf sprinter Golden Pal, who has since become North America's busiest stallion. Lady Shipman is a carbon copy of her sire, with all of the substance you'd ever want in a mare, and Golden Pal adds a bit of refinement from his own sire, Uncle Mo.

But enough about the present, let's talk about the future. Darley has been very careful with its pricing of Midshipman over the years, and breeders have responded with lots of support. He has a pipeline of 190 registered 2-year-olds, yearlings, and weanlings, which is on the higher end among veteran value sires, and he consistently covers a healthy book of mares.

There is so much value in knowing what you have when it comes to planning a mating. Midshipman can give you a consistency that few others in the stud book can offer at any price.

Second Team: Sky Mesa

B. h., 2000, Pulpit x Caress, by Storm Cat
Standing at Three Chimneys Farm, KY, $10,000

The exacta stays the same from last year in this category, but in a position where consistency is king, that shouldn't come as a surprise.

Midshipman and Sky Mesa are practically in lockstep when it comes to lifetime percentages: dead even by winners from foals of racing age (58 percent) and stakes winners from racing-age foals (six percent), and Midshipman holds a slight lead by percentage of total wins from progeny starts (16 percent to 15 percent).

Sky Mesa has 17 crops of racing age, which ties Mineshaft for the most among active North American value sires, so we have about as much data on what the stallion can get for you as we could possibly collect. He gets his foals to the track and into winner's circles.

As an A.P. Indy-line horse through his own sire Pulpit, Sky Mesa retains many of the hallmarks of that line, with a big shoulder and powerful backside propelling a frame that's not overly tall.

We have the formula on what makes a good Sky Mesa runner about as well as any stallion in North America. At a $10,000 stud fee, he should be on the list for any breed-to-race operation.

The Sprinter: A veteran sire who either has a proven track record of getting successful sprinters, or a young sire who has the racetrack performance or pedigree to suggest his foals will excel around one turn.

First Team: Frosted

Gr. or ro. h., 2012, Tapit x Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister
Standing at Darley, KY, $10,000

Believe it or not, I don't enter the selection process with any preconceived notions of who I plan to end up where on the team. My first year of doing these in 2022 proved that who I thought might be a sure thing in a certain position would be anything but a sure thing once I sat down with all the evidence.

With that being said, there was never a point where I thought Frosted would ever put a dent in this category. Nothing about his race record, and very little of his pedigree, says “sprinter,” but Frosted has turned out to be an incredibly potent source of successful one-turn runners.

Over the past two years, Frosted has gotten 3.26 percent stakes winners from total sprint starters, which stacks up better than a lot of Kentucky sires whose modus operandi is one-turn races. He's been especially good in 2023, where his eight sprint stakes winners (of 10 total stakes winners) tie him for fourth among Kentucky sires at all price points behind the likes of Into Mischief (18) and Munnings (12). His 4.35 percent sprint stakes winners from starts in 2023 is also in the pantheon of sires this season.

His top sprinter is Jasper Krone, who has become a millionaire in Japan as a four-time stakes winner, including scores in the Group 3 CBC Sho and the Kitakyushu Kinen.

Domestically, Frosted's sprinters have been led in 2023 by Ice Dancing, who started the year with a convincing victory in the G3 Santa Ynez Stakes, going seven furlongs. He has also had nice stakes winners in Post Time (City of Laurel Stakes at Laurel Park), Flakes (Game Face Stakes at Gulfstream Park) and Frosty View (Northern Lights Futurity at Canterbury Park).

Darley has been adjusting Frosted's stud fee for a few years, and he has been eligible for the All-Value Sire Team since the 2022 breeding season. He stood for $10,000 for the first time in 2023, and breeders responded by packing 154 mares into his book. The increase of 46 mares from the previous season was the ninth biggest year-to-year gain in mares bred this season.

Buyers have also responded with overwhelming positivity to Frosted's lower fee. The median sale price from his yearling crop conceived in 2021 – the first year he stood for $25,000 – rose to $40,000 after finishing at $30,000 the previous season. His weanling crop, conceived on a $20,000 fee, also saw year-over-year improvements in median sale price this fall.

Darley seems to have found a good balance with supply and demand with their pricing on Frosted, and in doing so, they might have unlocked a skill in the stallion that we couldn't have seen coming. Frosted is by no means “just” a sprint sire because of his lofty placing in this category, but knowing what a sire can be good at can be helpful in planning matings. At $10,000, Frosted offers a ton of value, no matter what you're trying to do with him.

Second Team: Jimmy Creed

Ch. h., 2009, Distorted Humor x Hookedonthefeelin, by Citidancer
Standing at Spendthrift Farm, KY, $10,000

Last year's First-Teamer in this division doesn't stray far from that spot in 2023, thanks in large part to his ability to get a stakes winner around one turn.

Over the past two years, Jimmy Creed has gotten 3.73 percent sprint stakes winners from starters, which puts him above a lot of his contemporaries, and especially those known as one-turn sires.

Jimmy Creed's best runner is the determined turf miler Casa Creed, who has had a history of big efforts when he scales back to one turn, including a win in last year's G1 Jaipur Stakes. He also has Private Creed taking the G2 Franklin-Simpson Stakes at Kentucky Downs and Joey Freshwater winner winning the G3 Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct. All six of Jimmy Creed's graded stakes winners earned that status in sprint races.

Jimmy Creed remains a trusted name with breeders, who sent 113 mares to him in 2023, marking a 19-mare increase.

On the commercial market, his strength continues to be in the 2-year-old arena once his foals get a chance to show how fast they are. His juveniles finished with the third-fastest average one-furlong breeze time in the 2023 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings, with an average time of :10.164 seconds (measuring in tenths), which further displays just how quick the turn of foot on the Jimmy Creeds can be.

A breeder has to know what they want when they send a mare to Jimmy Creed, but if they do, and it matches up with what the sire can offer, there are paths to success.

Check in for future installments to see who made the All-Value Sire Team among stallions of various ages and specialties, including freshman sires of 2024, sires awaiting their first yearlings, regional sires, and more.

The post The 2023-24 All-Value Sire Team Presented By Pedigrees 360: The Veteran Sire And The Sprinter appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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