Constitution Hill falls again as Golden Ace wins
Former champion hurdler Constitution Hill falls once again as Golden Ace wins the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
Constitution Hill falls again as Golden Ace wins
Former champion hurdler Constitution Hill falls once again as Golden Ace wins the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle.
Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase-Premier Handicap-14.55 Newbury
Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) 14.55 Newbury:
Myretown arrives in peak condition following a commanding display in the Ultima Handicap at Cheltenham last spring, where he surged clear with impressive authority to dismiss rivals by eleven lengths on good to soft ground.
The eight-year-old has proven his affinity for give in the surface, with all three chase successes coming under similar conditions, and his bold-jumping style should see him navigate Newbury’s testing fences with aplomb.
Trainer Lucinda Scudamore has him finely tuned after a targeted preparation, and Derek Fox’s strong partnership adds tactical edge in this stamina-sapping affair.
His relentless gallop late on suggests he remains ahead of the assessor despite a rise, bringing the class to mount a serious challenge.
Resplendent Grey impressed on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter in October, powering home with fluency before a battling second in the Colin Parker Memorial at Carlisle last month, where he quickened smartly on good to soft.
The seven-year-old thrives on cut, having scored twice over hurdles on soft earlier in his career, and this galloping track should unlock further progress from his unexposed profile.
Olly Murphy reports him in rude health post those pipe-openers, with Sean Bowen aboard to exploit his travelling ability, and his scope marks him as one still improving.
The Changing Man shaped with real promise on his return at Ascot earlier this month, staying on gamely to fill second after some early traffic despite a steady pace.
The eight-year-old excelled in novices last term, including a Grade Two victory at Ascot on good to soft, and his bold-jumping front-rank style suits this marathon test.
Joe Tizzard has his yard firing on all cylinders, and the addition of cheekpieces could sharpen his focus, with Brendan Powell’s recent hot streak a bonus from this mark.
He brings proven stamina and experience in big fields, arriving fresh and ready to build on that encouraging reappearance.
Hyland caught the eye when second to the reopposing Katate Dori in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton last winter, battling gamely on good to soft before a solid effort in Grade One company there subsequently.
The eight-year-old handles softer ground well, with two prior wins on it over hurdles, and his prominent racing suits Newbury’s long straight.
Nicky Henderson has him spot-on after a ninth at Cheltenham last month that offered excuses, and James Bowen’s booking enhances his claims in this deeper pool.
Katate Dori dominated the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton in February, quickening clear to score by fifteen lengths on good to soft, confirming his love for cut in the ground.
The seven-year-old has won three of his four chase starts, including on heavy at Chepstow earlier, and trainer Sam Thomas has freshened him ideally after a hurdles pipe-opener at Aintree.
Dylan Johnston’s allowance is a plus, and his fluent style should see him dictate from the front in this tougher assignment.
Panic Attack arrives on the crest of a wave after a dominant Paddy Power Gold Cup success at Cheltenham earlier this month, where she quickened sharply to prevail by four lengths on good to soft.
The nine-year-old relishes give, with her Windsor mares’ chase win last winter on soft, and her battling qualities shone through in that elite handicap.
Dan Skelton has her in top order for this double bid, and Tristan Durrell’s tactical ride could see her outstay some less-proven stayers.
The Doyen Chief returned to form with a close second at Bangor last month, staying on stoutly after a tardy start to just fail on good to soft.
The eight-year-old has a solid record on softer surfaces, including a win at Warwick on it last season, and this sharper track may help him quicken better.
Alan King reports him thriving at home, with Tom Bellamy retaining the ride, and he brings the experience to handle this rise in class.
Blizzard Of Oz showed marked improvement when scoring on his chasing bow at Gowran in February, jumping boldly before powering clear on yielding ground.
The seven-year-old has untapped potential with just five starts over hurdles prior, and he acts well on soft, having placed at Aintree on it.
Willie Mullins has him primed for this British raid, and J J Slevin’s cross-country nous could prove key in the testing finish.
Gorgeous Tom impressed when chasing home a subsequent Grade Two winner at Down Royal last month, staying on gamely on good to soft despite greenness.
The six-year-old brings smart novice form, including a bumper success on soft at Cork, and his size suggests this trip will suit as he gains experience.
Henry de Bromhead has him in excellent shape for his handicap debut, and Darragh O’Keeffe’s ride adds promise from a workable mark.
Simulations Results:
The results for the top ten: Myretown (12%), Resplendent Grey (11%), The Changing Man (10%), Hyland (9%), Katate Dori (9%), Panic Attack (8%), The Doyen Chief (8%), Blizzard Of Oz (7%), Gorgeous Tom (7%), Spanish Harlem (6%).
The field balances out with the remainder at lower shares.
Myretown: 12% (fair odds 7/1)
Resplendent Grey: 11% (fair odds 8/1)
The Changing Man: 10% (fair odds 9/1)
Hyland: 9% (fair odds 10/1)
Katate Dori: 9% (fair odds 10/1)
Panic Attack: 8% (fair odds 11/1)
The Doyen Chief: 8% (fair odds 11/1)
Blizzard Of Oz: 7% (fair odds 13/1)
Gorgeous Tom: 7% (fair odds 13/1)
Spanish Harlem: 6% (fair odds 15/1)
Best bet: Myretown, his explosive Cheltenham form and ground suitability giving him the nod in a wide-open renewal.
Value selection: Hyland at 10/1, where the market underrates his reversal potential with Katate Dori and proven track affinity, against fair odds of 10/1—edging value through his upside on return.
BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle-Grade 1-14.00 Newcastle
BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) 14.00 Newcastle:
Constitution Hill seeks to reignite his stellar career in this elite contest, having dominated his previous ten outings over hurdles before a trio of setbacks last term derailed his momentum.
The eight-year-old fell at Cheltenham and Aintree before labouring home at Punchestown, yet trainer Nicky Henderson has long excelled in reviving champions, and recent reports paint him in fine fettle ahead of his return.
He previously triumphed here over course and distance on heavy ground two years ago, showcasing blistering acceleration, and his versatility on good to soft surfaces should see him handle this testing track with ease.
Nico de Boinville knows his every quirk, and with superior experience in top-flight battles, he remains the benchmark despite the lay-off.
Anzadam arrives unbeaten in four hurdle starts since joining Willie Mullins, including dominant Grade Three successes at Fairyhouse and Naas last winter where he powered clear with considerable authority.
The five-year-old brings French-bred speed and fluency, thriving on softer ground as evidenced by his effortless wins on yielding, and this sharper layout could unlock even more from his untapped potential.
Trainer Mullins has him primed for his seasonal bow, with Paul Townend aboard to dictate proceedings, and his progressive profile marks him as a serious threat to the old guard.
The New Lion enters open company after an impeccable novice campaign capped by a commanding victory in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, where he outstayed rivals with gritty determination on good to soft.
The six-year-old has won all five hurdle starts, including the Challow at Newbury on similar terrain, and dropping back to two miles poses no issue given his electric pace and bold jumping.
Dan Skelton has schooled him meticulously over the summer, and Harry Skelton’s tactical ride will aim to press the leaders, with his class and fitness earmarking him as a genuine contender.
Golden Ace, the shock Champion Hurdle winner last spring after chaos unfolded at the final flight, arrives with recent race-fitness from a pipe-opener at Wetherby where she found little despite scoping with minor debris.
The seven-year-old relishes cut in the ground, having excelled on soft at Cheltenham, and her battling qualities shone through when second to State Man at Punchestown subsequently.
Jeremy Scott has her in robust shape, and Lorcan Williams retains the mount, though she faces a sterner test against fresher rivals in this company.
Nemean Lion rounds out the field after a productive spell last term, completing a hat-trick with a Grade Two success at Fontwell where he travelled strongly before asserting gamely on soft.
The eight-year-old prefers a bit of give but struggled when upped markedly in trip at Cheltenham in the Stayers’ Hurdle, pulling up tamely, and reverting to sprint distances may revive him.
Trainer Kerry Lee has freshened him up nicely, with Conor O’Farrell aboard, yet he enters with questions over his current acuity against this elite opposition.
Simulation Results:
The rankings emerged as: Constitution Hill (28%), The New Lion (25%), Anzadam (22%), Golden Ace (15%), Nemean Lion (10%).
Best bet: Constitution Hill, his proven dominance and course mastery giving him the decisive edge on return.
Value selection: On the numbers the simulation produced, the only two horses trading longer than their modelled fair price are Golden Ace and Nemean Lion, with Golden Ace at 25/1 being the standout over-priced runner by a country mile.
