Less than two weeks from the 2020 Kentucky Derby, and while we've learned that fans won't be in the stands, connections have been working hard to finalize their plans for this year's contenders.
The list of 20 contenders below appears to be the total number of expected entrants for the Run for the Roses, and includes, for the first time since the introduction of the Derby points system in 2013, a horse with no points at all. That's Shirl's Speight, a Charles Fipke homebred undefeated in two starts in Canada for trainer Roger Attfield. He's a talented colt by Speightstown and gets Corey Lanerie in the saddle, bringing a little more intrigue to this year of the unexpected.
The only jockey left to be decided is that of Rushie, the Michael McCarthy trainee expected to ship to Louisville from California on Tuesday.
Updates to this list will be made as contenders go through their final workouts over the next week, potentially moving a few horses up or down for the final Paulick Report rankings.
The updated points leaderboard is available here: Derby Oaks Leaderboard
Where did your favorite Derby horse end up? Be sure to click on the expandable boxes for each Derby candidate to get all the latest information in this edition of The Derby 20!
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm
Sire: Constitution
Dam: Tizfiz, by Tiznow
Sales Record: $110,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga New York-Bred Sale
Race record: 6-0-1 from seven starts, $2,015,300
Major races: G1 Travers (1st), G1 Belmont (1st), G1 Florida Derby (1st), G3 Holy Bull (1st), G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (3rd), G1 Champagne (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
He's the Belmont Stakes winner, the Travers winner, he's undefeated in 2020, and he looks like a model of consistency for trainer Barclay Tagg. It's hard to bet against Tiz the Law, a colt whose running style makes him hard to beat. The Travers was impressive, and that 109 Beyer is miles above what any other 3-year-old has done this year. All that considered, his one race at Churchill Downs was a bit of a flop, and Tiz the Law seems to need to be kept in the clear on the outside to do his best running. If we get anything near a full gate of 20 horses, that could pose a problem, especially if he draws near the inside. The colt also hasn't been seriously tested this year, so it remains to be seen if he'll have the heart to win a battle to the wire. Of course, he may not need it; Tiz the Law hasn't been tested because no other horse has been able to run with him.
- Tagg Calls Tiz The Law's Penultimate Derby Work 'Perfect'
- Kentucky Derby Notes: King Guillermo's Fast Work, Tiz The Law's One-Day Delay, Arrival Plans
- Tiz The Law Ascends To Top Of Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings
- Tagg: Tiz The Law 'Did Everything A Good Horse Ought To Do'
- Tiz The Law Solidifies Kentucky Derby Favoritism With Overpowering Victory In Runhappy Travers Stakes
- 'The Pinnacle Of What We Hope For': Tiz The Law A 'Star Pupil' On And Off The Track
- Belmont Winner Tiz The Law To Stand At Ashford Stud Upon Retirement
- More here
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith
Breeder: George Krikorian
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush
Sales Record: $850,000 yearling at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select sale
Race Record: 2-3-0 from five starts, $382,200
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (2nd), G1 Santa Anita Derby (1st), G2 San Felipe (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
This big, beautiful colt has all the talent to get the job done on the first Saturday in September, but he's a little bit lighter on experience than some of his rivals. The loss in the Shared Belief shouldn't affect him long-term; it was an oddly-run race and the distance was a bit short for Honor A. P. to show his best. That said, Shirreffs can be sure to have Honor A. P. ready to give his best effort next out, and with “Big Money” Mike Smith in the saddle his chances to visit that hallowed winner's circle at Churchill Downs are that much better.
- 'Clicking Off Those 12s': Honor A.P. Works At Del Mar Under Mike Smith
- 'Outstanding': Smith Aboard Honor A.P. For Key Derby Breeze
- Reversal Of Fortune For Top Two Finishers In Shared Belief
- Thousand Words Re-Enters Kentucky Derby Picture, Beating Honor A.P. In Shared Belief
- Honor A. P. To Stand At Lane's End Upon Retirement
- Bloodlines: Honor A.P. Charts The Course For His Classy Family
- Shirreffs: Exciting, Gratifying To See Honor A.P.'s Santa Anita Performance
- More here
Owner/Breeder: Bruce Lunsford
Trainer: Tommy Drury
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Sire: Bernardini
Dam: Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor
Sales Record: (homebred)
Race Record: 5-1-0 from nine starts, $664,380
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (1st), G2 Blue Grass Stakes (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
After an impressive win in the Blue Grass, this colt did exactly what he needed to do in the Ellis Park Derby. Jockey Brian Hernadez gave him just enough of a workout in the final eighth of a mile, and while his 100 Beyer at Ellis may have been a bit of a regression from his 103 in the Blue Grass, Art Collector showed he can both handle early pressure and be tractable. He'll have to take another step forward to beat Tiz the Law and Honor A. P., but the colt has shown he's certainly capable of doing so. On a side note, it's hard not to root for this trainer and jockey, both of whom are underrated and getting a legitimate shot at the big dance.
- Art Collector Records Front-Running Win In Runhappy Ellis Park Derby
- Drury 'Hit The Lottery' With Ellis Park Derby Favorite Art Collector
- Breeders' Cup Presents Connections: 'I Still Can't Find The Words'
- It's Official: Art Collector To Use Ellis Park Derby As 'Steppingstone' To First Saturday In September
- Hernandez: 'You're Always Thinking About The Derby'
- More here
Owner: Victor Avila (Victoria's Ranch)
Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Breeder: Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band
Sales Record: $150,000 at the OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-1 from five starts, $340,350
Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (2nd), G2 Tampa Bay Derby (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
It was unclear how talented this colt might be after his Tampa Bay Derby victory, but his second-place finish to Nadal in the Arkansas Derby was impressive. The long layoff from May to September could be a concern, but he's a lightly-made animal so there's no reason to think it wouldn't benefit him. King Guillermo has been at Churchill Downs for weeks getting used to the surface, and it looks like he'll be a major contender.
- Kentucky Derby Notes: King Guillermo's Fast Work, Tiz The Law's One-Day Delay, Arrival Plans
- Kentucky Derby Notes: King Guillermo Fires A Bullet Under The Twin Spires
- Straight Sets: Nadal Takes Second Division Of Arkansas Derby For Baffert Sweep
- Arkansas Derby: King Guillermo Gets Feel For Oaklawn Surface
- Breeders' Cup Presents Connections: Jockey Camacho Stays Humble Heading To The 'Big Time'
- Named For Martinez' Late Father, King Guillermo A Longshot Dream Come True
- More here
Owner: Global Thoroughbred and Top Racing, LLC
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Breeder: SF Bloodstock
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Peace Time, by War Front
Sales Record: $95,000 weanling at Keeneland November
Race Record: 1-3-0 from four starts, $238,800
Major Races: G1 Travers Stakes (2nd), G3 Peter Pan Stakes (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
This lightly-raced colt ran a big race in the Peter Pan, especially first time against winners, and took another big step forward in the Travers. He's got all the reason in the world to move up again in the Derby, his third start off the layoff. Caracaro may have been soundly defeated by Tiz the Law, but the late-developing colt ran a solid race and earned his spot in the Run for the Roses. With Hall of Famer Javier Castellano keeping the mount, Caracaro is even more likely to be capable of an upset.
- Caracaro Breezes In Saratoga Slop For Self-Described 'Derby Dreamers'
- Kentucky Derby Consignor Standings Presented By Keeneland: Caracaro Seeks Derby Debut For Buckland Sales
- On To The Derby For Travers Runner-Up Caracaro; Rice Keeping Max Player's Options Open
- Caracaro 'In Another Category' Than Delgado's Other Derby Starters
- 'Really? I Did That?' Castellano Hoping To Add To Record Six Travers Wins
- Country Grammer Shows Long-Distance Chops Winning Peter Pan
- More here
Owner: John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing and Paul Braverman
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Breeder: Brian Culnan
Sire: Cross Traffic
Dam: Maime Reilly, by Graeme Hall
Sales Record: $27,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old in training sale
Race Record: 2-3-2 from nine starts, $565,470
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (2nd), G3 Matt Winn (2nd), G2 Louisiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
Progressive colt showed up in a big way in the Haskell, and looked like he'd handle the extra distance of the Kentucky Derby with ease. Ny Traffic has had a good deal of racing experience, and is taking a step forward with each race. He's tactical and gritty, so he should be able to make some noise on the first Saturday in September.
- 'It Doesn't Matter What Year You're In It': Joseph Looking Forward To Ny Traffic's Run In Kentucky Derby
- 'I Think We Have A Legit Chance': Joseph Pleased After Ny Traffic Works In Company With Math Wizard
- 'Another Jump Forward': Joseph Pleased With Ny Traffic's Haskell Performance
- Authentic Just Lasts In Desperate Haskell Finish; Baffert Wins For Ninth Time
- Ny Traffic Bound For Jersey's Haskell After Sharp Gulfstream Drill
- More here
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Breeder: Hardacre Farm
Sire: Pioneerof the Nile
Dam: Pomeroy's Pistol, by Pomeroy
Sales Record: $1,000,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from seven starts, $327,000
Major Races: Shared Belief Stakes (1st), G3 Los Alamitos Derby (2nd), G3 Bob Lewis Stakes (1st), G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
Most analysts had understandably written off this colt after a couple of sub-par performances, but after watching his workout in company with Cezanne, it was easy to see that he'd found a new groove. After the Shared Belief win, Baffert explained that Thousand Words had gotten a bit sour, but the Hall of Fame trainer seems to have gotten a better idea of what makes this colt tick. Another one to keep a close eye on in the mornings leading up to the Run for the Roses.
Owner: Spendthrift Farm, MyRacehorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, and Starlight Racing
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC
Sire: Into Mischief
Dam: Flawless, by Mr. Greeley
Sales Record: $350,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 4-1-0 from five starts, $1,011,200
Major Races: G1 Haskell Stakes (1st), G1 Santa Anita Derby (2nd), G2 San Felipe (1st), G3 Sham Stakes (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
I sincerely doubt this colt wants a mile and a quarter, but I doubted him in the Haskell over nine furlongs too. He's got heart, and he's got the tactical speed to be dangerous, but I can't seem him winning the Kentucky Derby. Mike Smith, his regular rider, seems likely to pick Honor A. P. over Authentic for the first Saturday in September.
- Authentic Pulled Up Mid-Workout To Avoid Stricken Horse; Breeze Rescheduled For Tuesday
- Baffert Breezes Derby Candidates Uncle Chuck, Authentic
- Bloodlines: Authentic's Haskell Win Brings Latest Success For Into Mischief, MyRacehorse
- Baffert: Haskell Winner Authentic 'Still Has A Lot Of Improving To Do'
- More here
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Andie Biancone
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Luca Panici
Breeder: Flaxman Holdings Limited
Sire: Karakontie
Dam: Light Blow, by Kingmambo
Sales Record: $20,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 4-1-1 from seven starts, $323,310
Major Races: G2 Tampa Bay Derby (2nd), G3 Sam Davis (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
He'll need the right trip to win the Derby, but his late-closing style could be especially dangerous when there appears to be plenty of speed signing on for the first Saturday in September. Biancone admitted that he rushed Sole Volante to the Belmont 10 days after winning an allowance race, and that he runs better fresh, so I won't hold the Belmont sixth against him.
Owner: George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Breeder: K & G Stables
Sire: Honor Code
Dam: Fools in Love, by Not For Love
Sales Record: $150,000 RNA at Keeneland September yearling sale
Race Record: 2-1-3 from five starts, $373,500
Major Races: G1 Travers (3rd), G1 Belmont Stakes (3rd), G3 Withers (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
He ran willingly enough in the Belmont, and all reports from the colt's camp were positive leading up to his third in the Travers. The switch to Asmussen's barn doesn't seem to have affected his workout style; Asmussen tends to work his horses slower, but Max Player went sub-1:00 in his five furlong workout on Monday. The barn switch would typically move him up in my eyes, but if Asmussen isn't changing what the colt has been doing, I'll leave him in the same place on my list as when he was in Linda Rice's barn.
- Max Player Works 'Really Well,' Covers Swift Five Furlongs In Company At Churchill Downs
- Travers Third Max Player Moved To Hall Of Famer Asmussen's Barn
- On To The Derby For Travers Runner-Up Caracaro; Rice Keeping Max Player's Options Open
- Rice Hoping Rosario Keeps Max Player Closer To The Pace In Travers
- 'Level-Headed' Max Player Puts In Final Work For Saturday's Travers
- How Much Was That Horse Worth? Max Player Valued At Seven Figures After Withers Score
- 'Everything Is Going Smoothly' With Travers Contender Max Player
- More here
Owner: John Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Breeder: Clearsky Farms
Sire: Tapit
Dam: Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union
Sales Record: $775,000 RNA at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 2-2-2 from ten starts, $397,150
Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes (4th), G2 Risen Star (2nd), G3 Lecomte (1st), G1 Breeders' Futurity (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
Distance should help this well-bred colt, and Casse seems happy with his recent workouts. Enforceable's late-running style might be a detriment, but with the right draw and the right trip, anything is possible.
- A Foggy Morning In Derby Town: Enforceable Breezes Six Furlongs
- Casse: Enforceable 'Has Grown Up A Lot,' But Will Need 'Plenty Of Pace' In Kentucky Derby
- Art Collector Breezes Half-Mile At Churchill In Ellis Park Derby Prep
- Enforceable Tabbed As Lukewarm Favorite In 14-Strong Louisiana Derby
- After Lecomte Win, Casse Hoping To Keep Triple Crown Prep Party Going In Smarty Jones
- More here
Owner/Breeder: Charles Fipke
Trainer: Roger Attfield
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Sire: Speightstown
Dam: Perfect Shirl, by Perfect Soul
Race Record: 2-0-0 from two starts, $86,893
Major Races: G3 Marine Stakes (1st)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
Shirl's Speight now gets into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby, and while he's clearly talented, the Derby is a big step up for a horse with just two prior starts. I'll be watching his morning works closely leading up to the first Saturday in September. The pick up of Corey Lanerie as his Derby jock is a positive step because of the rider's familiarity with Churchill Downs, but it still seems like a lot to ask of a colt who's yet to race on the dirt.
Owner/Breeder: Lloyd Madison
Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: James Graham
Sire: Hard Spun
Dam: Aristra, by Afleet Alex
Sales record: $200,000 yearling at Keeneland September sale
Race Record: 1-2-1 from six starts, $215,600
Major Races: G3 Indiana Derby (2nd), G2 Risen Star (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
He hasn't gotten that top-level win yet, but Major Fed has a dedicated team behind him dedicated to his success. He will skip the Ellis Park Derby and point straight to the Kentucky Derby, and while he won't be lower than 20-1 on Derby day, the power of the home team may propel Major Fed beyond his race record.
Owner: Rey Hernandez and Arnaldo Monge
Trainer: Rey Hernandez
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Breeder: Paige Jillian Blu Sky Stables
Sire: Dialed In
Dam: Southern Classic, by Southern Image
Race Record: 2-1-2 from nine starts, $191,290
Major Races: G1 Arkansas Derby (3rd), G3 Lecomte Stakes (4th), G2 Kentucky Jockey Club (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
The one-eyed Finnick the Fierce will draw plenty of fan-favoritism, though his credentials may not match his price. He's a cool colt who's run well intermittently, and a good performance could put him in the mix on Derby day. Martin Garcia will be back aboard, which moved the colt up this list this week.
Owner: Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Breeder: Mr. and Mrs. C. Oliver Iselin III
Sire: Uncle Mo
Dam: Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini
Race Record: 1-3-1 from eight starts, $143,732
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (2nd), G3 Gotham (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
Clearly second-best to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby, but Romans plans to point this son of Hard Spun to the Run for the Roses. And why not? It's his home track, and the Virginia-bred is improving a bit this year.
Owner: Raymond Daniels and Wayne Scherr
Trainer: Chris Hartman
Jockey: Miguel Mena
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC
Sire: Hard Spun
Dam: Jenny's Rocket, by Mr. Greeley
Sales Record: $250,000 yearling at Keeneland September
Race Record: 2-0-3 from 10 starts, $199,730
Major Races: Ellis Park Derby (3rd), G3 Indiana Derby (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
A step below the best, but the Derby is for dreamers and mid-level trainer Chris Hartman has continued to show that he can work with the best when given the chance. Miguel Mena has had a pretty hot hand all summer at Ellis, so that could move him up.
Owner: Jim and Donna Daniell
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: TBD
Breeder: Ocala Stud
Sire: Liam's Map
Dam: Conquest Angel, by Colonel John
Sales record: $70,000 2-year-old purchase at OBS March sale
Race Record: 2-1-2 from six starts, $189,351
Major Races: G2 Blue Grass Stakes (3rd), G1 Santa Anita Derby (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
Rushie is now planning to be shipped to Churchill Downs, having run well enough in a couple of Derby preps and has enough points to make the main field on his own. It'll be interesting to see what happens moving forward with this colt.
Owner: St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Breeder: Cloyce Clark
Sire: Quality Road
Dam: Mary Delaney, by Hennessy
Sales Record: $400,000 yearling at Keeneland September
Race Record: 2-0-1 from three starts, $188,850
Major Races: G1 Haskell (3rd), G1 Belmont (2nd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
Unimpressive performance in the Haskell, and Dr Post appears to be more of a one-paced grinder than the kind of horse who can win the Kentucky Derby. Down the road, he ought to try some marathon distances, because he looks like the type to run all day long.
However, should the colt's racing tactics change, he might be worth a second look.
- Pletcher 'Very Happy' With Dr Post's Friday Work At Saratoga
- Kentucky Derby 'In Play' For Pletcher Trainee Dr Post
- Dr Post, Authentic Top Probables For 'Win And You're In' Haskell Stakes
- Aftermath: Pletcher, Rice Ponder Next Starts For Belmont's Second- And Third-Place Finishers
- Vincent Viola: 'The Belmont Is Absolutely The Race That I Covet The Most'
- More here
Owner: David A Bernsen, Exline-Border Racing LLC, Dan Hudock, and Susanna Wilson
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Breeder: Stepping Stone Farm
Sire: Court Vision
Dam: My Tejana Storm, Tejano Run
Sales Record: $60,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 2-1-3 from nine starts, $1,310,451
Major Races: G3 La Jolla (2nd), G3 Ohio Derby (3rd), G2 San Felipe (3rd), G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1st), G1 American Pharoah (3rd)
possible for Kentucky Derby
Second in a graded stakes on the turf last out, Storm the Court will ship to Louisville Kentucky Derby. He hasn't produced a top-level win this year, but continues hitting the board or getting close to it on the dirt. Leparoux has committed to ride, and if he's working well, there's always a chance.
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds and Pearl Racing
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Joe Rocco, Jr.
Breeder: WinStar Farm
Sire: Paynter
Dam: Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled's Song
Sales Record: $77,000 2-year-old at OBS April sale
Race Record: 1-1-2 from nine starts, $98,552
Major Races: Arkansas Derby (3rd)
Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5
While its hard to see positives in Winning Impression's most recent two efforts, trainer Dallas Stewart has a reputation for producing longshots for a career-best effort in the Kentucky Derby.
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