Dubawi’s Indigo Girl Takes the May Hill

Earning TDN Rising Star status on debut when winning over a mile at Yarmouth Aug. 30, George Strawbridge’s Indigo Girl (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) made an impressively rapid jump forward to capture Thursday’s G2 bet365 May Hill S. at Doncaster. Held up in last early by Frankie Dettori after an awkward start, the 10-3 second favourite was delivered with an eye-catching move stand’s side to swamp the long-time leader Dubai Fountain (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) with 1 1/2 furlongs remaining. Despite running green in front, the full-sister to the same connections’ group 1 winner Journey (GB) carved out a comfortable 3/4-of-a-length success from that rival, with the 6-5 favourite Zabeel Queen (Ire) (Frankel {GB}) a length further behind in third. “I rode Journey and she’s the same type–not over-big, but she’s got loads of gears,” Dettori said. “She travelled smoothly and quickened well. She ran a bit green and ducked left and right, but it’s only her second start so you can excuse her for that. She’s from a talented family and everything is in the right place. She seems easier to handle than her siblings. She’s got a good future and fingers crossed she can go all the way.”

John Gosden was enjoying a fifth renewal of this Classic pointer and said, “She did it very smoothly at Yarmouth and she’s been in great form since. The race didn’t knock her back a bit–it was rather like a piece of work. If we’d gone for another novice race, she would have had to lump a lot of weight and I don’t like doing that with two-year-olds. You can end up giving seven pounds to a group horse and you don’t know it. The May Hill is a beautiful race over the straight mile. The track is in beautiful nick and I thought we’d bring her here and see if we could nick a bit of black-type. She relaxed beautifully, which is key, and smoothly came through. I admit when she hit the front she ran around, but that’s the trainer’s fault because when I work them at home, I don’t like them bursting clear and breaking another one’s heart.”

Of targets, he added, “She’s obviously got a lot of talent. As long as she continues to enjoy her racing, she can move upward. There are two options this year–the [G1] Prix Marcel Boussac and the [G1] Fillies’ Mile. We could look at either of those or wait until next year, we’ll just have to see at this stage. Her mother won a Prix Royal-Oak and her full-sister won the Fillies & Mares Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot over a mile and a half. Funnily enough, I see this one as more of a mile to a mile-and-a-quarter filly. She travels strong and has a great turn of foot.”

As mentioned by her trainer, Journey captured the 2016 G1 QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares S. when she beat Speedy Boarding (GB) (Shamardal) by four lengths. Also runner-up in that race the previous year and successful in the G3 Pinnacle S. and second in the 2017 G1 Prix Vermeille, she is out of Montare (Ire) (Montjeu {Ire}) who took the G1 Prix Royal Oak, G2 Prix de Royallieu and G2 Prix du Conseil de Paris. Her dual listed-winning dam Contare (GB) (Shirley Heights (GB) is also the second dam of Worth Waiting (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}), winner of the G2 Dahlia S. and G3 Prix Minerve. Montare’s other black-type performer is Travelling Man (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}), who was placed in three pattern races including when third in the G2 Grand Prix de Deauville. Her 3-year-old filly Mostly (GB) (Makfi {GB}) has won at Kempton this term, while her yearling filly is also by Dubawi.

Thursday, Doncaster, Britain
BET365 MAY HILL S.-G2, £60,000, Doncaster, 9-10, 2yo, f, 8fT, 1:38.84, gd.
1–INDIGO GIRL (GB), 126, f, 2, by Dubawi (Ire)
1st Dam: Montare (Ire) (G1SW-Fr, $852,544), by Montjeu (Ire)
2nd Dam: Contare (GB), by Shirley Heights (GB)
3rd Dam: Balenare (GB), by Pharly (Fr)
1ST BLACK-TYPE WIN; 1ST GROUP WIN. O/B-George Strawbridge (GB); T-John Gosden; J-Lanfranco Dettori. £34,026. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $49,762. *Full to Journey (GB), Hwt. Older Mare-Eng at 11-14f, G1SW-Eng & G1SP-Fr, $912,717; and 1/2 to Travelling Man (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}), MGSP-Fr, $127,771. Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Dubai Fountain (Ire), 126, f, 2, Teofilo (Ire)–Nafura (GB), by Dubawi (Ire). O-Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum; B-Godolphin (IRE); T-Mark Johnston. £12,900.
3–Zabeel Queen (Ire), 126, f, 2, Frankel (GB)–Dubai Queen, by Kingmambo. O/B-Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum (IRE); T-Roger Varian. £6,456.
Margins: 3/4, 1, NK. Odds: 3.33, 8.50, 1.20.
Also Ran: Lilac Road (Ire), Star of Emaraaty (Ire), Prado (GB), Great Vibes (GB), Mere Green (Ire), Ubuntu (Ire). Click for the Racing Post result or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. Video, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

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Ghaiyyath Confirmed For Irish Champion

Ghaiyyath (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) will line up for Saturday’s G1 Irish Champion S. at Leopardstown after coming through a Thursday morning gallop in good order, according to trainer Charlie Appleby. This season’s G1 Coronation Cup, G1 Coral-Eclipse S. and G1 Juddmonte International winner is the favourite for the 10-furlong contest and will face five rivals including Ballydoyle’s Japan (GB) (Galileo {Ire}) and Magical (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) as well as this season’s G1 Prix Ganay victor Sottsass (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}).

“It was a routine piece of work to check his well-being, and he has come through it without a worry,” Appleby said of Thursday’s move. “It was not a strong work, more a breeze, which is normal procedure three days before a race. He’s telling us that he’s ready now for another big race.

A recent relaxation in Irish quarantine rules for elite athletes means William Buick will be allowed to partner Ghaiyyath.

“We are really looking forward to the weekend,” Appleby added. “He travels to Ireland at the peak of his career, unbeaten in four starts this year, three of them Group 1s, two of which were officially rated the best performances globally in 2020. He’s now a 5-year-old and by any standards he is lightly-raced. He has run only 12 times, winning nine and placing twice. This is his fourth season in training, and I believe what we are now seeing is an outstanding racehorse at the top of his game.

“He’s going to Leopardstown in as good a condition as we have ever had him. I’m as pleased with him as I was before the Juddmonte International at York, where I thought he was very professional in the manner he went about everything.”

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Betting MLB: Ballpark Figures Keeps Betting Totals in Perspective

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction. Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13th last season?
As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7th in hitting (24th pitching).

Petco Park is a rare exception. They are currently the top pitcher’s ball orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in 2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them. For example, virtually every Padre is going to have statistically better stats at home than on the road. The fact that Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and

David Wells have significantly better stats at home than on the road proves to be the rule, not the exception. Hence the educated eye realizes there is not an angle in their respective splits.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a better pitcher on the road than at home. This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust. As of June 19, the Padres last eight road games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.
Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5 or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the sharpies.
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Notable US-Bred Runners in Japan: Sept. 13, 2020

In this continuing series, we take a look ahead at US-bred and/or conceived runners entered for the upcoming weekend at the tracks on the Japan Racing Association circuit, with a focus on pedigree and/or performance in the sales ring. Here are the horses of interest for this weekend running at Chukyo and Nakayama Racecourses:

 Sunday, September 13, 2020
5th-NKY, ¥13,400,000 ($126k), Newcomers, 2yo, 1600mT
AMERICAN PEACE (c, 2 Tapit–La Cloche, by Ghostzapper), a $325K Keeneland September acquisition, is the latest produce from his Grade III-winning dam, a $2.4m Fasig-Tipton purchase by this breeder who is responsible for American Peace’s full-sister Bellevais, also a Grade III winner on turf. Second dam Memories of Silver (Silver Hawk) was a two-time winner at the highest level, and her MGISW daughter Winter Memories (El Prado {Ire}) is the dam of the MSW & MGSP ‘TDN Rising Star’ Winter Sunset (Tapit). This is also the family of fellow GSW ‘Rising Star’ Hawkish (Artie Schiller). The colt’s Tiznow half-brother is consigned as hip 1035 at KEESEP next week. B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY)

 

 

MELIODAS (c, 2, Uncle Mo–Fifty Foot Woman, by Giant’s Causeway) was also knocked down for $325K at KEESEP last fall and is out of a full-sister to GSW Excited, the dam of SW & MGSP Thrilled (Uncle Mo); and SW Wait Til Dawn. The May foal’s stakes-winning second dam Path of Thunder (Thunder Gulch) was a full-sister to GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff upsetter Spain and a half to MGSW Puerto Banus (Supremo) and GSW Fantastic Spain (Fantastic Fellow). A Curlin half-sister to Meliodas is set to sell as hip 162 during Sunday’s opening session at KEESEP. B-Fred W Hertrich III & John D Fielding (KY)

11th-CKO, Centaur S.-G2, ¥112.8m ($1.06m), 3yo/up, 1200mT
MR MELODY (h, 5, Scat Daddy–Trusty Lady, by Deputy Minister) returns to his best game in this prep for the Oct. 4. G1 Sprinters’ S. Winner of the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen (1200m) in 2019 (see below, gate 3), the bay was sixth in the JBC Classic on dirt last November and has just one start since, an unplaced effort in the G1 Yasuda Kinen over Tokyo’s metric mile June 7. A half-brother to GSP Trendy Lady (Unbridled’s Song), Mr Melody was RNAd for $75K as a KEENOV weanling, fetched $100K as a KEESEP yearling the following fall and was purchased by his current connections for $400K out of the 2017 OBS April Sale. B-Bell Tower Thoroughbreds (KY)

 

 

SHIVAJI (h, 5, First Samurai–Indian Bay, by Indian Charlie) won four of 13 starts on dirt to begin his career and though he has registered just one victory–a most improbable one at that– from five turf tries (video, gate 8), he has run with credit, including a close fifth to the fleet Mozu Superflare (Speightstown) in this year’s Takamatsunomiya Kinen. Produced by a daughter of GSW Buy the Barrel (E Dubai), Shivaji was a $90K KEESEP grad turned $540K OBSAPR breezer. His full-sister is cataloged as hip 1818 at this year’s KEESEP sale. B-Hinkle Farms (KY)

 

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