Turners Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1), scheduled for 1.20pm on Wednesday, 11th March 2026.
The Stats That Matter: 12-Year Trends
Age Profile: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6. Seven-year-olds have a poor recent record (only one win in 25+ years).
Performance: 11 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their most recent start.
Class & Rating: 8 of the last 12 winners were rated 150+. No winner since 2011 has been rated below 146.
Proven Winners: 11 of the last 12 winners had already won a Graded novice hurdle.
Market Position: 10 of the last 12 winners were in the first four of the betting.
Irish Dominance: Irish trainers have won 10 of the last 12 renewals. Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 4.
Bumper Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had previously won a flat bumper.
Runner Analysis & Preference
1. No Drama This End (Paul Nicholls / Harry Cobden)
The Verdict: The leading British hope and a strong trend-fit. He is a 6-year-old who won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle last time out—breaking the “Challow jinx” established by The New Lion the previous year. He has the required rating (144/156 range) and course experience, having run in the Champion Bumper. He travels like a high-class horse and handles testing ground.
Trend Score: 9/10
2. Ballyfad (Gordon Elliott / Jack Kennedy)
The Verdict: A classic Irish raider who fits the “5-year-old” profile of previous winners like Impaire Et Passe. He was beaten only a short-head in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown on heavy ground. His rating of 147 is right where it needs to be for a winner. He is a former point-to-point and bumper winner, checking almost every historical box.
Trend Score: 9/10
3. King Rasko Grey (Willie Mullins / Paul Townend)
The Verdict: Despite being third behind Ballyfad last time, he is the choice of Paul Townend. Willie Mullins’ strike rate in this race (7 wins) makes his first-string runner an automatic contender. He is unexposed, a 6-year-old, and bred to be better over this intermediate trip.
Trend Score: 8/10
4. I’ll Sort That (Declan Queally / D.L. Queally)
The Verdict: The “dark horse” of the race. He has won his last four starts, including a Grade 1 at Naas. He is a 6-year-old with a rating of 142. While he needs to find a few pounds of improvement to reach the 150+ standard, his “won last time out” and “Grade 1 winner” status make him a major threat.
Trend Score: 7/10
5. Act Of Innocence (Nicky Henderson / Nico de Boinville)
The Verdict: A very talented 6-year-old who won a Listed race at Huntingdon in style. However, Nicky Henderson’s runners in this specific race have a mixed record compared to his Supreme/Triumph success. He may prefer slightly better ground, but his class is undeniable.
Trend Score: 6/10
6. Saint Baco (Willie Mullins / Sean O’Keeffe)
The Verdict: Another Mullins 5-year-old. He was disappointing behind I’ll Sort That last time, which violates the “top 2 last time out” trend. However, Mullins horses often improve significantly between February and March. He is a speculative choice for those looking for a bigger price.
Trend Score: 5/10
Final Selection Summary
1. No Drama This End – The professional choice; handles the conditions and the track.
2. Ballyfad – The best of the Irish form on heavy ground.
3. King Rasko Grey – Townend’s choice from the dominant stable.
4. I’ll Sort That – Prolific winner who shouldn’t be underestimated.
Going Declaration: Currently Good to Soft. This heavily favours Ballyfad and No Drama This End, both of whom have produced their best Racing Post Ratings on deep ground.
