The Unscripted Delights of Anticipation Week

Newmarket's Craven meeting could just as well be called Anticipation Week.

Anticipation is climbing the steps of a venerated football stadium for a night game to find the floodlights blazing and the grass slick and lush.

It's the bounce of the England cricket team down the pavilion steps to start an Ashes series. It's checking your tickets the day before Wimbledon tennis starts or standing just after dawn beside the first tee at an Open Championship or Masters.

It's not about what you know. It's about all the things you don't know. Or don't know yet, because there is no script. A venue, a tradition, a hum of expectation, yes, but no script. Unlike cinema or the theatre, nobody wrote what you are about to see. You scan the horizon of pleasures still to come with a preferred outcome, certainly, but no guarantees.

In books and films the whodunnit is already decided. In sport the who-will win-it is a thing of intrigue. It's the unknowable.

What I'm describing here, in racing terms, is 'Craven week,' the Newmarket fixture that ends the strange hiatus between the Lincoln meeting at Doncaster and the 'real' start of a Flat racing campaign, on the Rowley Mile course. 

It's not about what you know. It's about all the things you don't know. Or don't know yet, because there is no script.

The Grand National meeting bisects the cutting of the start-line ribbon at Donny and the unleashing of the first wave of Classic contenders at Newmarket, in a week when everything feels possible, and dreams are unbruised by reality.

And in Flat racing, anticipation week is centuries old. The Craven was first run in 1771 and evolved over two hundred years into the pre-eminent 2,000 Guineas trial. In 1869 it was reduced from 10 furlongs to eight. Eight years later it was restricted to three-year-olds. 

Modern training is a scientific, data-driven trade, so colts often go straight to the Guineas without a prep run. City of Troy and Rosallion – the first two in the market – will arrive on May 4 without form in the book as three-year-olds.

Yet the Craven is still the race that tells you spring has sprung, the Classic race scramble has begun, and that 2024's contenders are about to be reclassified as champs, nearly-horses and also-rans.

In the history of the colts' Classics, the evidence trail still starts with the Craven. Six years ago Masar beat the odds-on Roaring Lion and went on to win the Derby. Roaring Lion proceeded to win four Group 1s. Curiously the last horse to compete the Craven-2,000 Guineas double was Haafhd in 2004, an anomaly that is due correction. Eminent (2017), Native Khan (2011) and Adagio (2007) are among those for whom winning the Craven was largely an end, rather than a beginning.

No modern Craven meeting has produced a more lasting declaration than that of Dancing Brave in 1986. His defeat of Henry Cecil's pair Faraway Dancer and Mashkour was emphatic enough but the ground was too soft to offer a promise of the beauty to come: victories in the 2,000 Guineas, Eclipse, King George and Arc to earn an official rating of 141, the highest ever awarded to a horse at that time.

The first big fillies' trial of the season, the Nell Gwyn Stakes, can also be revelatory. In a mini golden era from 1984 to 1986 it was won by Pebbles (1,000 Guineas, Eclipse, Champion Stakes, Breeders' Cup Turf), Oh So Sharp (1,000 Guineas, Oaks, St Leger) and Sonic Lady (Irish 1,000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes, Sussex Stakes, Prix du Moulin.)

The British crave spring and hints of summer delights particularly keenly. It feels as if it has been raining in the UK since November. Racing folk ask Craven week to lift the grey blanket off their heads. They want equine coats to gleam and the sun to glint off silks. Trainers, stable staff and jockeys will see hints from the gallops tested on the racecourse. Lazy types will be transformed and 'morning wonders' may flop when they step on the track.

With Craven week, there are clues and promise but no certainties. After Newmarket the auditions roll on to Newbury, to the Greenham and Fred Darling. The two Guineas races come less than three weeks after the Newmarket and Newbury trials – a timetable more compressed than you might imagine, considering that these are three-year-olds emerging from hibernation.

Everything is up for grabs, and everyone wants to grab it, especially after a gruelling, soggy winter. The not knowing is part of the thrill. There are champions on the scroll of Nell Gwyn and Craven winners but there are also winners you struggle to remember. It's not possible for a 'bad' horse to win either race, but eminently possible for the victory to lead nowhere. Twelve months ago Indestructible beat The Foxes in the Craven but has not won since.

In Anticipation Week stars will emerge, reality checks will abound, hopes will be dashed and question marks will be scattered. But the 2024 Flat season will be in full swing. It's not just the horses who burst from the stalls at Newmarket. We do too.

 

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Easy Win for California Shipper Adare Manor in Apple Blossom

Michael Lund Petersen's Adare Manor (m, 5, Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant Gizmo), who so often shows her best on the front end, took her California tactics on the road with a 5 1/2-length score in Oaklawn's $1.25-million GI Apple Blossom S. Saturday while conceding between one and six pounds to her rivals. Flying Connection (Nyquist), who shipped in from Sunland Park after three straight stakes wins in New Mexico for the red-hot Todd Fincher barn, closed late to nab second over Mar. 24 Shantel Lanerie S. winner Free Like a Girl (El Deal). Last year's GI CCA Oaks winner Wet Paint (Blame), previously unbeaten in three stakes at Oaklawn, never got involved and finished sixth.

The 3-5 choice, Adare Manor showed old habits die hard as she went clear early under Juan Hernandez, running comfortably with her ears flicking back and forth, and set fractions of :23.68 and :46.95 while Honor D Lady (Honor Code) applied pressure to her outside. Even while Honor D Lady loomed and last summer's GIII Molly Pitcher S. winner Shotgun Hottie (Gun Runner) threw her hat into the mix, Adare Manor never looked seriously threatened. She quickened on the turn, kicked clear with ease and opened up by daylight to hasten home an authoritative winner while Hernandez took a peek under his right arm as the pair's distance on the field remained intact. She got the 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.48.

“[Trainer Bob Baffert] had her ready today,” said Hernandez. “They had a lot of confidence in her. I just felt it right away when I jumped on her. She was so calm and she was ready to run great. She loves a mile and a sixteenth. If you saw her, she's huge. She's really a big filly, so she needs a lot of distance in her races.”

A $375,000 Donato Lanni purchase at the 2021 OBS June sale after working a furlong in :10 1/5, Adare Manor won the GIII Las Virgenes S. at three by 13 lengths, had a five-win streak going at four that included the GI Clement L. Hirsch S. and three other graded races, and kickstarted her 5-year-old campaign with a 102 Beyer as the runner-up in the GI Beholder Mile S. at Santa Anita Mar. 9. Seven of her eight career wins have been on the front end, with the lone exception being a stalking trip in last summer's Clement L. Hirsch.

Pedigree Notes:

Adare Manor is one of 49 graded winners and 100 black-type winners overall for exceptional Coolmore America stallion Uncle Mo, a regular among North America's leading sires. She is the second of her sire's progeny to win the Apple Blossom following Unbridled Mo's victory in 2018. She is, however, the lone stakes winner to date out of a Giant Gizmo mare. The latter was relocated to Panama following the 2019 breeding season after standing at Canada's Gardiner Farm. Uncle Mo does have four stakes winners out of mares by Giant Gizmo's sire, the late Giant's Causeway, who was a fellow Coolmore sire, as well as Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby third Grand Mo the First.

Stock in Brooklynsway has risen dramatically since Adare Manor's assent up the stakes ranks. Winner of the 2016 GIII Doubledogdare S. at Keeneland, she was a $170,000 RNA at Fasig-Tipton's November sale in 2017, then went through the same ring in 2020 at the Winter Mixed Sale, where Town & Country picked her up in foal to Into Mischief for $95,000. Adare Manor, then a short yearling, sold at the same sale to Walmac Farms and Gary Board for $180,000 before being pinhooked the next year. Brooklynsway has a 2-year-old filly by Ghostzapper named Nosleeptilbrooklyn, who went to Boardshorts Stables at Keeneland September for $500,000, and a yearling full-brother to Adare Manor. The mare was a $1.2-million RNA at last year's Fasig-Tipton November sale; she has aborted her 2024 Tapit foal.

 

Saturday, Oaklawn
APPLE BLOSSOM H.-GI, $1,250,000, Oaklawn, 4-13, 4yo/up, f/m, 1 1/16m, 1:42.48, ft.
1–ADARE MANOR, 123, m, 5, by Uncle Mo
       1st Dam: Brooklynsway (GSW-USA, MSW &
                 GSP-Can, $724,597), by Giant Gizmo
       2nd Dam: Explosive Story, by Radio Star
       3rd Dam: Maya's Note, by Editor's Note
($180,000 Ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA Ylg '20 FTKSEL;
$375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN). O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town
& Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Bob Baffert;
J-Juan J. Hernandez. $675,000. Lifetime Record: 16-8-5-0,
$1,736,600. Werk Nick Rating: A.
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Flying Connection, 118, f, 4, by Nyquist
                1st Dam: Free Flying Soul (MSW & MGISP, $423,177),
                                 by Quiet American
                2nd Dam: Ruby Surprise, by Farma Way
                3rd Dam: Santa Rosalia, by Bold Bidder
1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-Brad King,
Randy Andrews, G. Chris Coleman, Jim Cone, Suzanne Kirby
and Lee Lewis; B-Liberty Road Stables (KY); T-Todd W. Fincher.
$225,000.
3–Free Like a Girl, 117, m, 5, by El Deal
                1st Dam: Flashy Prize, by Flashy Bull
                2nd Dam: Rich Peace, by Rizzi
                3rd Dam: Lockpeace, by Hold Your Peace
1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($5,500 Ylg '20 ESLYRL). O-Gerald Bruno,
Jr., Chasey Deville Pomier and Jerry Caroom; B-Kim Renee
Stover & Lisa Osborne (LA); T-Chasey Deville Pomier.
$112,500.
Margins: 5HF, 3/4, 2. Odds: 0.70, 26.20, 58.30.
Also Ran: Shotgun Hottie, Taxed, Wet Paint, Bellamore, Misty Veil, Honor D Lady.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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