Leopardstown Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 15.30
Galopin Des Champs has strong claims based on his history in this contest.
He has won the last three renewals of the Irish Gold Cup.
His recent third in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown came after an eight-month absence, suggesting he needed the outing to sharpen up.
He performs well on soft to heavy ground, having won on heavy previously.
He excels at Leopardstown, with multiple Grade 1 successes here.
Gaelic Warrior brings solid recent form into the race.
He finished a close third in the King George VI Chase at Kempton last time out.
He is versatile regarding trip and has won on heavy ground before.
His settling could be key in this stamina test.
His record at Leopardstown is mixed, but he has won here over shorter distances.
Spindleberry is progressive and unbeaten over fences in five starts.
She won a Grade 1 against geldings last time, showing class.
She receives a mares’ allowance, which could help bridge the gap to the top males.
Her form on soft ground is encouraging.
She lacks experience at this exact course and distance, but her upward trajectory suggests she can compete.
Fact To File has the ability but needs to bounce back.
He was close in the John Durkan Chase but disappointed when sixth in the King George.
He handles soft ground well and has won at Leopardstown before.
His fitness should be fine now with two runs under his belt.
He has experience in high-class chases.
Affordale Fury caused an upset when winning the Savills Chase at Leopardstown last time.
He benefited from race-fitness that day, outstaying rivals like Galopin Des Champs and I Am Maximus.
He may prefer slightly quicker ground than soft to heavy.
He has form at the course, including that recent victory over three miles.
His progression over fences has been steady.
I Am Maximus ran a terrific race when second in the Savills Chase.
He is the 2024 Grand National winner and thrives in stamina tests.
He copes well with soft to heavy ground, as shown in his Aintree success.
He has yet to win at Leopardstown but has placed in Grade 1s here.
His jumping can be flamboyant, but his engine is proven.
Inothewayurthinkin has been disappointing this season.
He finished ninth in the Savills Chase after a fifth in the John Durkan.
He won a Grade 1 novice at Punchestown last term, showing potential.
He handles soft ground but needs to rediscover his spark.
He lacks standout form at Leopardstown.
Grangeclare West was fourth in the Savills Chase, a solid effort.
He finished second to Galopin Des Champs in this race last year.
He performs well on soft ground and is a course and distance winner.
His experience in Grade 1 chases stands him in good stead.
He looks capable of a placed effort again.
Monty’s Star finished fifth in the Savills Chase, behind several of these.
He has only one win over fences but has shown ability at a high level.
He handles soft ground but may find this company too hot.
He has limited experience at Leopardstown.
His form suggests he is still learning.
Lecky Watson has struggled in senior company this term.
He was seventh in his last two starts, including behind stablemates.
He was a smart novice last season but needs improvement.
He copes with soft ground but lacks the class for this.
He has form at Leopardstown from novice days.
A simulation, run 50000 times with adjustments for form, fitness, ground preferences, course affinity, and experience, produced the following win percentages: Galopin Des Champs 54.55%, I Am Maximus 14.53%, Gaelic Warrior 12.09%, Spindleberry 4.52%, Fact To File 4.43%, Grangeclare West 4.40%, Affordale Fury 2.40%, Inothewayurthinkin 0.76%, Monty’s Star 0.71%, Lecky Watson 0.71%, Champ Kiely 0.58%, Firefox 0.31%.
The equivalent fractional odds from these percentages are: Galopin Des Champs 5/6, I Am Maximus 6/1, Gaelic Warrior 7/1, Spindleberry 21/1, Fact To File 21/1, Grangeclare West 21/1, Affordale Fury 40/1, Inothewayurthinkin 130/1, Monty’s Star 139/1, Lecky Watson 139/1, Champ Kiely 170/1, Firefox 319/1.
The best bet is Galopin Des Champs as current odds are greater than simulation odds of 5/6.
No value selections as no current odds are longer than simulated equivalent.
There are no steamer bets, as no horses shortened by at least 4 points between early race card prices and live current betting prices among those with the greatest calculated percentage chances.
