“Join Coral Bet £10 Get £50” Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) 13.40 Newbury:
French Ship arrives in excellent shape following a dominant display at Cheltenham last month, where he quickened smartly to score with authority despite some greenness under pressure.
This five-year-old has shown rapid improvement over hurdles and handles testing conditions with ease, having performed soundly on good to soft before.
His jumping is assured and his stamina should see him stay the trip strongly on this softer surface, with trainer P Hobbs & J White reporting him in peak fitness.
The booking of Harry Cobden adds further confidence, given his tactical nous in big fields.
Lud’or impressed on his handicap debut at Bangor, powering clear in the closing stages to win with any amount in hand, suggesting he has more to offer.
The six-year-old thrives on cut in the ground, having won comfortably on soft earlier in his career, and this sharper track should suit his fluent travelling style.
Trainer T Symonds has him spot-on after a short break, and Caoilin Quinn’s allowance helps from this higher mark.
He brings solid experience for his age and looks primed to build on that recent success.
Guard Duty has a proven affinity for Newbury, having scored here over the course and distance on soft ground last season, when he stayed on gamely to assert.
The eight-year-old is no mug in handicaps and his latest effort at Uttoxeter, where he travelled well before tiring, hints at retained ability.
He prefers a bit of give in the surface, which plays to his strengths as a bold-jumping sort, and Gavin Sheehan knows him well.
Trainer Miss E C Lavelle has freshened him up nicely, and he remains a dangerous each-way contender with his course expertise.
Dominic’s Fault caught the eye at Sandown in January, making rapid headway from the rear before an unfortunate fall at the third last brought him down.
The eight-year-old has limited mileage for his age and relishes soft ground, having won impressively on it at Lingfield prior.
Trainer Olly Murphy, who boasts a fine strike-rate at Newbury, has him in rude health after a recent gallop, and Sean Bowen is a positive jockey booking.
Off this lenient mark, his class could shine through if he gets the gaps.
Personal Ambition reverted to hurdles with credit at Carlisle recently, leading until the final stages before three late challengers collared him.
The six-year-old showed his best form on soft ground as a novice, including a Grade Two victory at Kelso, and this flatter track may help him quicken better.
Trainer B Pauling has targeted this for him after a chasing setback dented confidence, and Ben Jones rides with enthusiasm.
He has the scope to rate higher than this mark suggests and arrives full of running.
Loverdose arrives on the back of a battling success at Sandown, where she dug deep to prevail in heavy conditions, confirming her love for a stiff test.
The seven-year-old handles cut exceptionally well, with two prior wins on soft, and her jumping has sharpened this term.
Trainer R Walford reports her in top order, and Harry Kimber’s 5lb claim is a bonus from this grade.
She has the experience to handle a big field and could outstay some more speed-oriented rivals.
East India Express was unfortunate to fall at Cheltenham on his return, having travelled powerfully in behind before departing two out.
The six-year-old dominated here over fences last season on soft, showcasing his fluency and turn of foot.
Trainer Nicky J Henderson, successful in this race before, has him primed after that pipe-opener, and Freddie Gordon takes off useful weight.
He relishes give in the ground and brings superior class to this company.
Simulations Results:
The results ranked the top eight as follows: French Ship (18%), Lud’or (16%), Guard Duty (14%), Personal Ambition (13%), Dominic’s Fault (12%), East India Express (11%), Loverdose (9%), Santos Blue (7%).
The remaining horses shared the balance at lower probabilities.
Best bet: French Ship, whose blend of current momentum and adaptability edges him ahead.
Value selection: Dominic’s Fault at 8/1 offers strong appeal, with the simulation implying fair odds of around 7/1 based on his upside from a workable mark.
