With at least two, and perhaps three, horses from Japan set to compete in this year's GI Kentucky Derby, everyone wants to know more about these horses and why the Japanese runners have had so much success internationally over the last few years. To answer those questions and more, the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland called upon Toshi Onikubo whose website, netkeiba.com, is among the best sources of information on Japanese racing anywhere. Onikubo was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week. He is a graduate of the Darley Flying Start program.
The biggest name among the Japanese horses set to run in the Derby is Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), the runaway winner of the G2 UAE Derby. The Writers' Room's Randy Moss has made him 6-1 in his early line for the Derby. Can he win the Derby?
“I believe he's definitely one of the best 3-year-old horses on dirt in Japan,” Onikubo said. “But we don't really know because we don't have any benchmarks when it comes to comparing him to American horses. And it's a big ask, to come over and win the Kentucky Derby. We recently have had really successful results, on turf and on dirt and in the Breeders' Cup two years ago. But we haven't really had those successes previously. So it's still a big ask for Derma Sotogake. And I hope I'm wrong, but this will be really tough for him to do. There are a lot of things to overcome.”
Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) is next on the Japanese depth chart, but he may not get into the race because he currently does not have enough points to qualify. Nonetheless, his performance in the GI Santa Anita Derby, where he lost by just a nose to Practical Move (Practical Joke) was a big one. Mandarin Hero races in Japan at the National Association of Racing (NAR) tracks, which are considered inferior to the Japan Racing Association (JRA) tracks. So what does that say about Derma Sotogake, who, in Japan, is clearly regarded as the better horse of the two.
“It definitely was a surprising result,” Onikubo said of the Santa Anita Derby. “The JRA, that's division one, league A, and NAR is league two, division two. The primary leading trainers are basically all on the JRA circuit, and Mandarin Hero is not from JRA. He was coming from a NAR track and running in one of the best prep races for the Kentucky Derby, an international Grade I race on dirt and finished a very close second. That was a really surprising result, but it's an encouraging result as well.”
The third potential Japanese starter is Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong). He was third behind Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby but has made the Derby field because he won a “Win and You're In” race for the Derby in Japan. Onikubo said the best thing he has going for him is his trainer, Yoshito Yahagi. Yahagi was the mastermind behind the Japanese invasion of the 2021 Breeders' Cup, where he won two races. Loves Only You (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) won the GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mate Turf. Marche Lorraine (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) won the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff.
“He's trained by the master, Yoshito Yahagi, an internationally successful trainer with the two Breeders' Cup wins,” Onikubo said. “He's also won the Saudi Cup and he won the Cox Plate, so he's a really successful trainer on international stages. He seems to know something other trainers don't know.”
Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/ the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, 1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Moss, Zoe Cadman, and Bill Finley took a look back at last weekend's biggest races, including the bounce-back race by Clairiere (Curlin) in the GI Apple Blossom H., which vaulted her back to the top of the older filly and mare division. Looking ahead, the team focused on the GII Oaklawn H., with all agreeing that it has assembled a top field worthy of Grade I status.
In off-the-track news, the trio talked about the fate of Turf Paradise and delved in an interesting story in the TDN by Dan Ross that shed some light on computer assisted wagering play in California and whether it is hurting the industry or not.
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