Second in a series helping horseplayers learn more about betting Hong Kong racing, by international wagering authority Dick Powell. Click here for the first installment on leading riders by ROI.
The 2021-2022 Hong Kong Jockey Club season began on September 5 and will continue with racing twice a week until July 16. Unlike the jockeys where the top two, Joao Moreira and Zac Purton, won 282 of the 835 races last season (34%), the two leading trainers, Caspar Fownes and John Size, won a combined 152 races (18%).
There are no “super” trainers in Hong Kong and the table below illustrates it. These are the leading trainers and their win percentages. Only five have even double-digit win percentages and the highest is John Size at 13.98%.
| Trainer | Wins | Starters | Win % |
| Caspar Fownes | 79 | 640 | 12.34% |
| John Size | 73 | 522 | 13.98% |
| Frankie Lor | 65 | 574 | 11.32% |
| Francis Lui | 61 | 576 | 10.59% |
| Danny Shum | 57 | 499 | 11.42% |
| Tony Cruz | 51 | 635 | 8.03% |
| Doug Whyte | 41 | 517 | 7.93% |
| Me Tsui | 37 | 559 | 6.62% |
| David Hall | 36 | 404 | 8.91% |
| Dennis Yip | 34 | 531 | 6.40% |
| Chris So | 33 | 511 | 6.46% |
| Ricky Yiu | 33 | 454 | 7.27% |
| Benno Yung | 32 | 405 | 7.90% |
| David Hayes | 32 | 422 | 7.58% |
| Jimmy Ting | 31 | 449 | 6.90% |
| Tony Millard | 30 | 386 | 7.77% |
| Manfred Man | 30 | 487 | 6.16% |
| Paul O'Sullivan | 26 | 377 | 6.90% |
| David Ferraris | 17 | 376 | 4.52% |
| Richard Gibson | 17 | 249 | 6.83% |
Part of this is explainable by field size. The average field size of every race in Hong Kong is about 12. So, from a random point of view, each trainer has a 1 in 12 chance of winning or 8.33%. If the field size is 8, like it is at many American tracks, there is a 1 in 8 chance of winning or 12.5%. Winning races in Hong Kong is much more difficult, even for the leading trainers.
Takeout on win betting in Hong Kong is 17.5% so an average win payoff of $1.65 exceeds the takeout. The following are the leading trainers from the 2020-2021 season and their ROI based on a $2 win bet:
| Trainer | Wins | Starters | Money Earned | $2 Bet/Horse | ROI |
| Caspar Fownes | 79 | 640 | $818.80 | $1,280.00 | $1.28 |
| John Size | 73 | 522 | $953.20 | $1,044.00 | $1.83 |
| Frankie Lor | 65 | 574 | $1,071.20 | $1,148.00 | $1.87 |
| Francis Lui | 61 | 576 | $785.70 | $1,152.00 | $1.36 |
| Danny Shum | 57 | 499 | $767.90 | $998.00 | $1.54 |
| Tony Cruz | 51 | 635 | $735.20 | $1,270.00 | $1.16 |
| Doug Whyte | 41 | 517 | $814.40 | $1,034.00 | $1.58 |
| Me Tsui | 37 | 559 | $791.60 | $1,118.00 | $1.42 |
| David Hall | 36 | 404 | $602.60 | $808.00 | $1.49 |
| Dennis Yip | 34 | 531 | $781.90 | $1,062.00 | $1.47 |
| Chris So | 33 | 511 | $733.20 | $1,022.00 | $1.43 |
| Ricky Yiu | 33 | 454 | $580.80 | $908.00 | $1.28 |
| Benno Yung | 32 | 405 | $830.00 | $810.00 | $2.05 |
| David Hayes | 32 | 422 | $445.40 | $844.00 | $1.06 |
| Jimmy Ting | 31 | 449 | $1,087.10 | $898.00 | $2.42 |
| Tony Millard | 30 | 386 | $519.60 | $772.00 | $1.35 |
| Manfred Man | 30 | 487 | $713.40 | $974.00 | $1.46 |
| Paul O'Sullivan | 26 | 377 | $488.60 | $754.00 | $1.30 |
| David Ferraris | 17 | 376 | $409.50 | $752.00 | $1.09 |
| Richard Gibson | 17 | 249 | $488.20 | $498.00 | $1.96 |
This tells a dramatically different story as the leading trainers do not always equal pari-mutuel success. So which trainers provide the best value? Here are the trainers listed by their ROI:
| Trainer | Wins | Starters | Money Earned | $2 Bet/Horse | ROI |
| Jimmy Ting | 31 | 449 | $1,087.10 | $898.00 | $2.42 |
| Benno Yung | 32 | 405 | $830.00 | $810.00 | $2.05 |
| Richard Gibson | 17 | 249 | $488.20 | $498.00 | $1.96 |
| Frankie Lor | 65 | 574 | $1,071.20 | $1,148.00 | $1.87 |
| John Size | 73 | 522 | $953.20 | $1,044.00 | $1.83 |
| Doug Whyte | 41 | 517 | $814.40 | $1,034.00 | $1.58 |
| Danny Shum | 57 | 499 | $767.90 | $998.00 | $1.54 |
| David Hall | 36 | 404 | $602.60 | $808.00 | $1.49 |
| Dennis Yip | 34 | 531 | $781.90 | $1,062.00 | $1.47 |
| Manfred Man | 30 | 487 | $713.40 | $974.00 | $1.46 |
| Chris So | 33 | 511 | $733.20 | $1,022.00 | $1.43 |
| Me Tsui | 37 | 559 | $791.60 | $1,118.00 | $1.42 |
| Francis Lui | 61 | 576 | $785.70 | $1,152.00 | $1.36 |
| Tony Millard | 30 | 386 | $519.60 | $772.00 | $1.35 |
| Paul O'Sullivan | 26 | 377 | $488.60 | $754.00 | $1.30 |
| Caspar Fownes | 79 | 640 | $818.80 | $1,280.00 | $1.28 |
| Ricky Yiu | 33 | 454 | $580.80 | $908.00 | $1.28 |
| Tony Cruz | 51 | 635 | $735.20 | $1,270.00 | $1.16 |
| David Ferraris | 17 | 376 | $409.50 | $752.00 | $1.09 |
| David Hayes | 32 | 422 | $445.40 | $844.00 | $1.06 |
Some words of caution:
Jimmy Ting's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $359.30 but it is still a decent $1.62 without it.
Benno Yung's positive ROI is affected by a win that paid $151.90 but it is still a decent $1.67 without it.
Frankie Lor ($1.87) and John Size ($1.83) are the only leading trainers that are beating the takeout and a couple, Caspar Fownes ($1.28) and Tony Cruz ($1.16) are near the bottom. When making your selections, make sure you are getting a decent price.
The post Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Leading Trainers By ROI appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
