Through Wednesday, March 22, 2023, there have been 227 races run at Happy Valley. The average field size is a robust 11.53 starters per race. But, as impressive as that stat is, taking a deeper look at the field sizes at Happy Valley is even better.
Averages can be skewed with an extreme range of numbers. A course like Ascot usually has a handicap race with 24 starters. With another race with 10 starters and four more with 8 starters, the average number of starters per race would be 11. But only one race would have more than 11 starters.
The median is the number that separates the higher half of a sample from the lower half. In the case of Happy Valley, the median number of starters per race is 12.
The mode is the value that occurs most frequently in a set of numbers. In the case of Happy Valley this season, the mode is 12.
The starting gate at Happy Valley is limited to 12 starters. In 172 races so far this season, the starting gate has been full. In some cases, there were more than 12 starters entered but did not draw in and were not able to run. So, 76% of the races run at Happy Valley this season had a full gate of 12.
There were 26 races run where there were 11 starters in the gate. In some cases, the reason that the starting gate was not full was a late scratch. Still, 87% of the races run at Happy Valley this year have 11 or more starters per race.
The following chart illustrates the number of starters in each of the 227 races run at Happy Valley this season.
6 starters – 1 race
7 starters – 1 race
8 starters – 3 races
9 starters – 9 races
10 starters – 15 races
11 starters – 26 races
12 starters – 172 races
Let's look at this from a reverse angle with not how many horses have started but how many stalls were empty. For example, with 26 races with 11 starters, that equals 26 empty stalls. 10 races with 10 staters equals 30 empty stalls. The total number of empty stalls in 227 races this season is only 106 or less than one half stall per race.
What makes this meaningful is the positive impact on the racing and the betting. For example, an eight-horse field means 56 possible exacta combinations (8 times 8 minus 8). But a 12-horse field means 132 possible exacta combinations (12 times 12 minus 12) which spreads betting out even more. A 50% increase in field size means a 135% increase in exacta combinations.
Full fields, especially on Happy Valley's tight seven-furlong turf course, results in a scramble for the lead. Riders have to break their mount alertly to keep from racing too wide around very tight turns. Even over firm going, a winner rarely makes all the running since the leader is under constant pressure. Rivals are stacked up behind the lead and no matter what the distance, it is hard to get a breather.
The proof is even with a relatively short homestretch of around 340 meters, depending upon rail placement, horses are able to rally from off the pace even after going around a very tight final turn. The only exceptions might be the races going around two turns – 1650m and 1800m.
So when racing resumes at Happy Valley on Thursday, April 6, expect the “No Vacancy”' sign on nearly all of the stalls of the starting gate.
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