Historical Horse Racing Trends: Proposed Additional Machines Could Earn CDI $3.4 Billion Per Year

Historical horse racing (HHR) machines have made a strong contribution to the horse racing industry in several states over the last five years or so, thanks to the fact that HHR revenues have been used by various racetracks to supplement purses for races.

In Kentucky, HHR machines have recently been classified by the legislature as a form of pari-mutuel wagering after a court ruling questioned their legitimacy from a state constitutional perspective. The reclassification allows HHR machines to continue to operate and racetracks and gaming centers across the state plan to expand the number of machines.

Using Kentucky Horse Racing Commission reports of monthly revenues from 2016 to 2021, the graph below shows the trend in the contributions in gross revenues – or handle – per month for all HHR machines in the state. The upward-sloping trend line reflects gross revenues per day per machine.

According to this data, each machine contributes an average of $143,000 per month to total gross revenues. Payouts to customers usually are at least 90 percent of gross revenues, leaving $14,300 profit per machine per month.

With the low labor and maintenance costs that accompany HHR machines, it is easy to see why racetracks and gaming centers in the state want to add more of these machines.

According to recent press reports, Turfway Park in Florence, Ky., and Derby City Gaming in Louisville plan to add approximately 2,000 machines combined over the next several years. According to the information above and holding all else constant, such machines could earn Churchill Downs (the owner of Turfway Park and Derby City Gaming) around $286 million more per month or $3.4 billion per year. At a tax rate of 1.5 percent, this increase could produce around $51 million in tax revenues for the commonwealth per year.

All data is adjusted for and accounts for reduced operating hours in 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions and precautions.

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