A field of nine is entered for the Grade 2, $200,000 Twilight Derby, a yearly test for 3-year-olds running nine furlongs on turf on Saturday at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif.
The best recent effort at the level belongs to Speaking Scout, victorious in the very similar Hawthorne Derby just four weeks ago run at this nine-furlong turf trip. Go Joe Won is another recent stakes winner, having led from start to finish in the Shared Belief Stakes run on dirt at one mile at Del Mar Sept. 3. War At Sea won the nearly identical Cinema Stakes over the Santa Anita turf course in June, and was most recently third in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby on the same day as the Shared Belief.
Cabo Spirit was just three-quarters of a length behind War At Sea in the Cinema, then won the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap in August, but was fifth and a length behind War at Sea in the Del Mar Derby in his most recent race. Handy Dandy was second in both the Singletary Stakes and Pasadena Stakes on the Santa Anita turf last winter and spring and enters the race off a sharp win last month at Del Mar.
Similarly, Perfect Flight was a half-length behind Cabo Spirit when second in the La Jolla in August and won his most recent start. Seven Wonders was a well-beaten fifth behind Handy Dandy last month and enters stakes competition for the first time. Irish-bred Stayincotai was fifth in the La Jolla after winning in his U.S. debut after importing from his native Ireland this spring. Degree of Risk rounds out the group of nine and was a fast closing third when last seen in August and was third in the Qatar Gold Mile last fall on turf.
Top Contenders
Speaking Scout ran the best race of his 12 race career four weeks ago winning the Hawthorne Derby by five lengths. He earned a career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure, which is also the best figure earned by any horse in this field, ever. The key to that big effort following four poorer races was the removal of blinkers, which allowed him to see the field from all angles and move quickly from fifth with a quarter mile to run and open up by three lengths with an eighth of a mile left in the race. He's on a three race pattern of improving figures, starting with 73 in August, to 99 in September, and that pattern suggests an even better effort today as he ships in from Kentucky where he's been in training for trainer Graham Motion.
Speaking Scout also picks up top West Coast jockey Juan Hernandez.
War At Sea is also a stakes winner at nine furlongs on turf, having won the Cinema Stakes in June over the same Santa Anita turf course as the Twilight Derby. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith was in the saddle for that win and rides once again in this race, having guided War at Sea to a third-place finish in the Del Mar Derby on Sept. 3. In that race, winner Slow Down Andy controlled the pace on slow fractions from start to finish which may have compromised the late speed of a horse like War at Sea, who still earned a career-best 101 figure in the process, which is as good as the 102 figure Speaking Scout earned in his most recent race. Since then, War at Sea put in a strong half-mile workout which was the best of 49 at the distance on the day so the colt is sending every signal he's going to run another big race.
Second group of contenders, just slightly less probable than the two above:
Cabo Spirit won the La Jolla Stakes in August at the slightly shorter mile and one-sixteenth turf trip, earning a 100 figure in the process. Prior to that, he finished fast for second, just three-quarters of a length behind War At Sea in the Cinema Stakes at this distance. However, in his most recent race Cabo Spirit managed only a fifth of nine finish, a length and one-half behind third-place finisher War At Sea. So, it remains to be seen whether that recent race is representative of what he might do in the Twilight Derby, or whether he can return to the strong form shown in either of his previous starts before that.
Similarly, Perfect Flight was just a half-length behind Cabo Spirit in the shorter La Jolla Stakes in August, earning a career-best 99 figure at the time. Since then he finished fourth, and won, but the win came in a lower level allowance race with a 95 figure. Handy Dandy also won an allowance race on the grass in his most recent start, earning a 98 figure. That was his ninth straight in-the-money finish, all on turf, including missing in the Singletary Stakes by a nose and a head in April with a 100 figure. Never worse than third in all nine turf starts, Handy Dandy is the type of horse which must be considered for any exacta or trifecta tickets played involving this race at the very least.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Degree of Risk (99), Go Joe Won (89), Seven Wonders (95) and Stayincotai (IRE) (99).
Top Win Contenders
Speaking Scout
War At Sea
Other contenders for exotic wagers such as the exacta
Cabo Spirit
Perfect Flight
Handy Dandy
Twilight Derby – Grade 2
Race 7 at Santa Anita
Saturday, October 29 – Post Time 7 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $200,000
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase
The post Equibase Analysis: Speaking Scout Leads Twilight Derby Field appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
