The Grade 1, $1 million Arlington Million Stakes, run in its traditional place during the summer but now run at Churchill Downs and on a special one-day of racing at the storied track this Saturday, still packs a lot of horsepower. Nine turf stars have signed on to run, including two horses who have already earned over $1 million in their career. Six of the other seven will go over the $1 million mark in career earnings if they succeed.
Smooth Like Strait has the highest career bankroll at $1.5 million, with 15 of his 20 career starts having resulted in wins or runner-up finishes including when last seen on May 30 finishing second in the G1 Shoemaker Mile Stakes. Field Pass brings a strong record into the race with $1.1 million earned and nine career wins, the most recent of those in the G2 Seabiscuit Handicap last fall.
Santin has only run seven times to date compared to at least double that for most of his opponents, but he's made the most of those starts with three wins including the nearly identical Turf Classic Stakes run on Kentucky Derby day this spring. Set Piece (GB) won the G2 Wise Dan Stakes in June of last year as one of four wins on the Churchill Downs turf from five starts on the course. He also won the G2 Dinner Party Stakes in May.
Sacred Life (FR) enters the Arlington Million following a win in the G3 Monmouth Stakes and rarely runs a bad race, having finished first or second in 17 of 26 career races on grass. Megacity crossed the wire in front of Field Pass last month in the $300,000 Texas Turf Classic Stakes before being disqualified and placed second for interference.
Admission Office also has credentials to be competitive in this field as he won the G3 Arlington Stakes on the Churchill Downs turf course this past June. Likewise, Cellist won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes over the course in May.
Cavalry Charge won the Fair Grounds Stakes on turf in February at the distance of the Arlington Million and enters the race off a second-place finish in a stakes behind multiple Grade 1 stakes winner Ivar.
About the top two win contenders – Santin and Set Piece (GB):
Santin is one of only two 4-year-olds in this year's Arlington Million (the other being Cellist), and he has only run badly in one of seven career starts. That was when sixth in his most recent start which came in June in the G1 Manhattan Stakes, possibly because one of his shoes had to be repaired in the paddock just before the race. That poor effort might also have been due to the 10 furlong distance of the race he was running for the first time, or the fact he was racing at Belmont for the first time. Prior to that Santin ran the best race of his career, at the nine furlong distance of the Arlington Million and at Churchill Downs. That effort came in the Turf Classic Stakes in May, where the colt earned a career best 115 
Equibase® Speed Figure. In that race Santin battled head-and-head for the entire last three-sixteenths of a mile. That was his first start in blinkers and it really seems to have made a difference. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione was aboard that day and rides back and since shipping from New York back to Churchill Downs Santin put in a very sharp three furlong blowout in the morning to put him on edge for a repeat of his Turf Classic effort in the Arlington Million.
Set Piece (GB) also should bounce back to his best form shipping in from New York to race at Churchill Downs, where he has won four of five on this turf course. The best of those efforts came 14 months ago when rallying from last of 10 to win the Wise Dan Stakes in visually impressive fashion, earning a strong 112 figure. After taking seven months off from September of last year until this April, Set Piece (GB) got back into the winner's circle in his second start on the comeback trail, rallying from next to last to win the Dinner Party Stakes in May. Next, in the Forbidden Apple Stakes last month, Set Piece (GB) moved up from 11th to within just about one length of the leaders when he found himself behind a wall of horses, getting a path to run much too late to have an impact and finishing fifth. Before shipping from New York, Set Piece (GB) put in a fantastic morning drill when running four furlongs in 47.8 seconds, the best of fifty-nine workouts at the distance on the day. As such, it is very reasonable to expect Set Piece (GB) to return to form good enough to win this race.
Regarding one of the likely betting favorites, Smooth Like Strait, there's little doubt he fires nearly every time, having finished first or second in 15 of 20 career starts on grass. He missed by a half-length in the Breeders' Cup Mile last fall, earning a career-best 119 figure. He also finished third in the Maker's Mark Mile this past spring and other than that has been first or second in his last six races, all grade one or grade two stakes. Still, he does his best running at a mile, not this mile and one-eighth trip. The last two times he ran this distance, Smooth Like Strait led with an eighth of a mile to go and although game to the wire was beaten by a neck on the finish line in both of those races.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Admission Office (114), Cavalry Charge (107), Cellist (109), Field Pass (113), Megacity (109) and Sacred Life (FR) (111).
Top Win Contenders:
Santin
Set Piece (GB)
Arlington Million Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, August 13 – Post Time 6:25 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
Three Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million
The post Equibase Analysis: Santin, Set Piece Top Win Contenders In Arlington Million appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
