The $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes returns to Grade 1 status in 2023 after three years as a Grade 2 event, having been run from 2002 through 2018 at this top level and featuring some of the best horses of the past couple of decades with winners such as Curlin, Fort Larned, Blame and Gun Runner.
This year's edition brings together a field of eight with nearly $10 million in career earnings between them. Among the eight, Proxy is one of three that have won at this lofty Grade 1 level, having captured the Clark Stakes last fall. Most recently Proxy won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, defeating Last Samurai by a head, with Stilleto Boy another nose behind in third.
Prior to the Oaklawn Handicap, Stilleto Boy won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap by a neck over Proxy and it must be noted Last Samurai proved a fit against this level when winning the 2022 Oaklawn Handicap. West Will Power brings a very consistent record of having finished first or second in 13 of 16 career races, including a second-place finish behind Proxy in the Clark last fall. Since then, West Will Power won the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic Stakes at the distance of the Stephen Foster. Rattle N Roll, winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at 2, has won three Grade 3 stakes in a row, most recently the Blame Stakes at the distance of the Foster. He is trained by Ken McPeek, who also saddles Smile Happy, winner of the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes in his most recent race.
Speed Bias stepped into stakes company for the first time last month and was beaten just a nose at the finish in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special by Rattle N Roll. Happy American rounds out the field, with his biggest win coming in the Grade 3 Louisiana Stakes last December, noting he has been beaten soundly by Rattle N Roll in his two most recent races.
Top contenders:
Proxy is a Grade 1 winner in a Grade 1 race, which can be a strong factor even in a field in which there are some up-and-coming stars. That win came last November at Churchill Downs in the Clark Stakes, the fall equivalent of the Stephen Foster, at the same level and distance. The win last fall followed a four-month layoff and a third-place finish in the 2022 Foster. Not only does Proxy return from a similar layoff, as he last ran in April, that race was a career best effort at this distance in which he earned a 113 Equibase Speed Figure taking the Oaklawn Handicap.
In the Oaklawn Handicap, Proxy gamely prevailing by a head over Last Samurai, with Stilleto Boy another nose back in third. Joel Rosario has ridden Proxy to his last two wins and is aboard again. Proxy draws the ground saving rail and has the ability to win from just off the pace as he did in the Clark, or to come from mid-pack, as he was when fifth of seven in the early stages of the Oaklawn Handicap. All in all this appears to make Proxy the horse to beat in this year's Stephen Foster Stakes.
Before losing to Proxy by a head and a nose in the Oaklawn Handicap in April, Stilleto Boy won the Santa Anita Handicap by a neck over Proxy a little over one month earlier. Already a graded stakes winner at the nine furlong trip of this race when capturing the Californian Stakes in April of last year with a 112 figure, Stilleto Boy was very game in the Oaklawn Handicap and earned the same 113 figure as the winner. Jockey Kent Desormeaux was aboard for both of the horse's recent “A” efforts and rides back so there is every reason to believe Stilleto Boy will be in the thick of the action right down to the wire once more.
Comments about the rest:
Last November in the Clark, West Will Power led from the start but was no match for Proxy in the late stages and ended up beaten three-quarters of a length. After nearly three months off, West Will Power once again set the pace from the start but again settled for second, this time behind Last Samurai in the Razorback Handicap. Taking a stalking position in second for the first half-of the New Orleans Classic Stakes in March, West Will Power drew away convincingly late and earned a 115 figure, which would be very competitive if repeated in this race.
However, when he returned to the style of wanting to lead early, West Will Power could only manage third when beaten by Smile Happy last month in the Alysheba Stakes. In this year's Foster it appears Speed Bias (who has an inside draw in the gate) will have the advantage in the early stages, and since both Proxy and Stilleto Boy appear to have stronger late kick, West Will Power may end up in a minor position once more.
Last Samurai won the 2022 Oaklawn Handicap at the distance of the Foster, a career-best effort at the time with a 108 figure. Since then he has won two of 11 races and lost two others by a neck and a head. One of those narrow defeats was to Proxy in the Oaklawn Handicap in April. That effort earned a 113 figure, competitive with the best here if repeated, but I have concerns as to whether that effort is repeatable. This is because his only effort since the Oaklawn Handicap resulted in a fourth-place finish behind Smile Happy and West Will Power
As to the aspiring 4-year-olds from the McPeek barn, Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll, I don't think they are yet ready for this level, although it must be noted the last two winners of the Stephen Foster both won the Alysheba Stakes – which Smile Happy took by two lengths this year. Although Smile Happy earned a 117 figure in the Alysheba, I have concerns whether that kind of effort is repeatable in this field.
Rattle N Roll may have won three straight stakes races but all were Grade 3 level races and his figures of 105 to 107, although consistent, don't show a pattern of improvement to get to the 113 to 117 level it will take to win this year's Foster.
Speed Bias earned a 107 figure when beaten a nose by Rattle N Roll in the Pimlico Special Stakes last month but even with some improvement he may not be able to step up from Grade 3 to Grade 1 stakes competition and run as well. Happy American earned 102 and 100 figures when finishing fourth, then third, in his last two races behind Rattle N Roll and appears overmatched.
Win Contenders:
Proxy
Stilleto Boy
Honorable mention and possible for a minor award:
West Will Power
Last Samurai
$1-Million Stephen Foster Stakes – Grade 1
Ellis Park: Saturday, July 1 – Race 10.
Post Time 5:26 PM ET
1 1/8 Miles, 4-Year-Olds and Upward
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase
The post Equibase Analysis: Proxy Gets The Vote In Stephen Foster appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
