Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Curlin Florida Derby brings together a field of 12 vying for the winner's share of the purse and valuable “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points. The winner of the race gets 100 points which guarantees a starting spot in the gate on the first Saturday in May. However, even the 20 points which goes to the fourth place finisher and 10 which goes to the fifth place finisher could be quite important in helping a horse's connections choose to start in the “Run for the Roses,” considering the current 19th place horse on the list (Classic Car Wash) has 26 points. The 20th place horse on the list is Continuar (JPN), who has accepted an automatic invitation to the Kentucky Derby.
The heavy betting favorite in this year's Florida Derby will be Forte, who has 90 points to date and won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month following victory in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November.
Among the other 11, just three have in-the-money finishes in graded stakes for 3-year-olds this year. Cyclone Mischief is one of those, having led for the first mile in the Fountain of Youth before fading to third. Mage finished fourth of nine in the same race and, this being his third career start and second around two turns, he may have significant improvement forthcoming. West Coast Cowboy finished third of eight in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes in January and could show improvement in his second start following two months off.
Dubyuhnell has positive experience at the level when winning the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall. However, he followed that with an eighth of 11 finish in the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes in February. Similarly, Fort Bragg, who was entered in the G3 Sunland Derby last Sunday but withdrew to run in this race, finished third in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity last December before a fifth place finish in the G2 San Felipe Stakes four weeks ago.
The other six look a bit overmatched, but 3-year-olds at this time of year do have the ability to really improve from one race to the next. Those are Il Miracolo, Jungfrau, Mr. Peeks, Mr. Ripple, Nautical Star and Shaq Diesel.
Analysis and main win contenders:
There's no doubt Forte is the horse to beat. He returned last month from a four month rest to easily win the Fountain of Youth Stakes by four and one-half lengths as if he'd never been away. Last year after winning the Hopeful Stakes around one turn in September with a 95
Equibase® Speed Figure, Forte truly blossomed when stretched out to two turns, winning the Breeders' Futurity with a 102 figure and then the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with a 105 figure. There's not much to add because his resume speaks for itself. The colt often has a tremendous burst of speed whenever jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. asks him, as evidenced in the Fountain of Youth when the colt went from fourth, two lengths behind the leader with a quarter mile to run, to third (just a half-length back) to draw off. The ONLY knock, if there is one, is that Forte drew the 11 post in a field of 12 for this mile and one-eighth trip, which at Gulfstream Park starts fairly close to the first turn. However, considering Forte usually races in fifth to seventh in the early stages, he just needs to get past a few horses in the early stages to not lose too much ground around the first turn. From then on, his mental and physical ability could do the rest.
All that being said, considering Forte will be the prohibitive betting favorite, a horse like Mage is very interesting, particularly as he is likely to be ignored by many bettors. Mage, like Forte, won his career debut in very easy fashion, earning an 88 figure at the time. When winning in his debut last May Forte earned a 91 figure, before regressing to 80 when fourth in the Sanford Stakes last July. Forte then proceeded to earned 95, 102, 105 and 106 figures starting with his Hopeful Stakes win last September. Mage also improved significantly, to earn a 95 figure when stepped up in class last month in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month in only the second start of his career and first around two-turns. Hitting the stall gate as the race started, Mage was away last of nine then rushed up to be fourth after a quarter mile had been run. He then made a run at the leaders to get within a half-length on the far turn before running evenly. Although the number of lengths behind the leader from an eighth of a mile to go until the finish increased from one to 6 3/4, that was a bit deceiving as Forte drew off by 4 1/2 lengths. Early pacesetter Cyclone Mischief faded to third, beaten 5 3/4 lengths, which Mage just one length further back. Thinking about what might have occurred if Mage had not gotten away last and rushed up mid-race, but rather had that burst of speed in the stretch, it is entirely conceivable the colt could have finished second. There is little doubt Mage has the pedigree to run this mile and one-eighth trip, as his dam's sire is 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown and his sire is 2018 Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic. Given the pattern of improvement from an 88 figure in his debut to 95 (with trouble) in only the second start of his career, and in a graded stakes race, Mage has a big shot to get into the 102 range which is certainly good enough for second here if Forte improves off his last effort. If, on the other hand, Forte only repeats his last effort, Mage has a chance to upset.
Dubyuhnell has a similarly disadvantageous post as Forte, having drawn the outside in this field of 12. Sent to post as the favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 11, following more than three months off, Dubyuhnell had significant traffic trouble in the first turn which caused him to fall back to 10th and he could not recover thereafter. However, he's worked strongly in the mornings since that last race. Considering he won the Remsen Stakes at the distance of the Florida Derby last fall with a 101 figure and that his most recent effort might be an outlier, Dubyuhnell could have a say in the outcome of this race.
Nautical Star is a very interesting longshot in this year's Florida Derby, likely to be at least 20 to 1 odds when the field enters the gate. He is one of four horses in the race trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr, and he shared ownership with one of those, Mr. Peeks. Nautical Star has run twice to date, both sprints at the distance of six furlongs. In his most recent effort when improving to a 93 figure, Nautical Star rallied from seventh of 11 to win by a nose. Both Nautical Star and Mr. Peeks were privately purchased following their most recent races. Given that Mr. Peeks (who is still a maiden) is stretching out to two turns, as well as has had the lead from the start through the first five furlongs in both career starts, it appears he is entered to insure an honest pace for Nautical Star to close into. Sire Dixie Chatter stands in Oklahoma for a pretty low ($2,500) stud fee but won two graded stakes in his career including the G2 Norfolk Stakes at a mile and one-sixteenth as a two year old, and a Race Lens query reveals Dixie Chatter has sired nine dirt route winners from just 22 foals to run in dirt routes. I'm not predicting Nautical Star can win the Florida Derby in a huge upset, but it appears very plausible the colt could rally into second or third as many horses tire late, therefore providing for a nice payout in the exacta or trifecta. I also wouldn't hesitate to bet $2 or $5 to win in the rare case he did post the upset.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Cyclone Mischief (101), Fort Bragg (100), Il Miracolo (80), Jungfrau (87), Mr. Peeks (90), Mr. Ripple (96), Shaq Diesel (84), and West Coast Cowboy (85).
Win Contenders in preference order:
Mage
Forte
Dubyuhnell
Longshot consideration: Nautical Star
Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'N' Dale Farms at Xalapa – Grade 1
Race 14 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, April 1 – Post Time 6:40 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million
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