Equibase Analysis: Limited Liability On The Improve Ahead Of Hill Prince

A field of 10 three year old males is entered for Saturday's Grade 2, $300,000 Hill Prince Stakes at Aqueduct, one of just a few big races left in the year on grass which is restricted to 3-year-olds.

Leading the field in terms of earnings is Grand Sonata ($516,000), who won the G3 Kitten's Joy Stakes this past winter and most recently finished second in the G3 Dueling Grounds Derby. Mackinnon can surpass that one with the $165K winner's share of the purse as he's made $360,000 in his career, most if it last year when third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He is making his third start of the year and moves to the barn of North American leading trainer Chad Brown, who also saddles Unanimous Consent (GB), winner of the Woodhaven Stakes in April and most recently third in the G3 Virginia Derby.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has a pair, consisting of the aforementioned Grand Sonata as well as Be Better, who is trying turf for the first time and who finishes last of eight in the Curlin Stakes in July when last seen. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey also enters two horses here in the form of Celestial City and Limited Liability. Celestial City enters the race off an allowance win versus older and prior to that finished second in the G3 Saranac Stakes, while Limited Liability was a fast closing third in the G3 Virginia Derby last month.

St Anthony won the Alcatraz Stakes in May and followed that up with a win in the Robert Dupret Derby in August but has finished eighth and fourth in two stakes starts since then. Wicked Fast has finished fifth and sixth in his two stakes tries so is trying to prove he belongs at the level. Similarly, Constitutionlawyer is making his first stakes try on turf. Nantasket Beach rounds out the field, moving way up in class into stakes company off a maiden win last month.

Top Contenders

Limited Liability continues a pattern of improvement which began in April when he made his 3-year-old debut following six months off. Coming back in a full field of 12 on grass at Keeneland, Limited Liability put in a visually impressive rally from last of 12 with a quarter mile to go and won by a neck at the finish. Moving right up into stakes competition, Limited Liability finished third in the Pennine Ridge Stakes, improving from a 92 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in his comeback to a 96 figure. Improving once again the following month to 105 even though seventh in the Belmont Derby, Limited Liability ran very well when rallying from last of 10 to finish third in the Virginia Derby last month, even though running five paths wide in the stretch and being squeezed with about an eighth of a mile to run. That effort earned a career-best 107 figure. Jose Ortiz is the only jockey Limited Liability has ever known and rides back and if Ortiz can settle the colt in back in the early stages and find a clear path to run in the lane they could sweep past the field to win this year's Hill Prince Stakes.

Unanimous Consent (GB) won the first three starts of his career, all on turf, from September of last year through this April. The third of those wins came in the Woodhaven Stakes over this course, which at the time earned the colt a career-best 85 ™ figure. One month later he finished fourth in the Pennine Ridge Stakes, a length behind third place finisher Limited Liability. Following that, in the Virginia Derby once again Unanimous Consent (GB) finished behind Limited Liability, but just by a neck this time, earning the same 107 figure in the process. As he is on the same pattern for further improvement as Limited Liability and has proven competitive in similar top 3-year-old turf races, Unanimous Consent (GB) could be a strong contender here.

Celestial City has not faced his stablemate Limited Liability (also from the McGaughey barn) all year, until now, and his last race 99 figure is short of the 107 both Limited Liability and Unanimous Consent (GB) earned in their most recent starts. Just the same, with the ground saving rail and only having been worse than third twice in eight races, Celestial City must be respected as a strong contender in the Hill Prince Stakes. That is because his two best races are his last two and both came after adding blinkers. The first of those was a second place finish to five length winner Annapolis in the Saranac Stakes on September 3, a race from which Annapolis returned from to win the Coolmore Turf Mile two weeks ago. The second was when moving from stakes to allowance competition just three weeks after the Saranac, resulting in a confidence building win and improving from a 91 figure in the Saranac to 99. Jose Lezcano rides once more and from the ground saving rail Celestial City could be in a better position than his deep closing stablemate Limited Liability so could be in front early in the stretch with a chance to hang on.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Be Better (95), Constitutionlawyer (92), Grand Sonata (108), Mackinnon (108), Nantasket Beach (85), St Anthony (96) and Wicked Fast (99).

Top Win Contenders:
Limited Liability
Unanimous Consent (GB)
Celestial City

Other contenders for exotic wagers such as the exacta:
Grand Sonata
Mackinnon

Hill Prince Stake – Grade 2
Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct)
Saturday, September 22 – Post Time 3:48 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth on Turf
Three Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

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