The Grade 2, $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby drew a full field of 12 3-year-olds trying for significant points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, with the points earned from first to fifth (100-40-30-20-10) likely to enable even the runner-up or third-place finisher to enter the gate for the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May if they already scored some points to date.
Seven of the dozen entered have some points already, that group led by Instant Coffee (32), who won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in January in his most recent race. Sun Thunder (24 points) finished second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes last month over the track, a race in which Tapit's Conquest (10 points) was fourth. Curly Jack was eighth of 14 in the Risen Star but was previously second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall and has earned 17 points. Single Ruler earned five points for a fifth-place finish in the Risen Star.
Others with “Road to the Derby” points are Jace's Road (15) and Denington (8). Jace's Road won the Gun Runner Stakes in December before a fifth-place finish in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at the end of January, while Denington earned points for a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club, a third-place effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes and a fourth-place finish in the Lecomte. Among those moving to this level for the first time, Kingsbarns is undefeated in two starts and is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Louisiana Derby four times in his career. Cagliostro enters the Louisiana Derby off a narrow loss to Denington in an allowance race last month, while both Shopper's Revenge and Disarm similarly ran second in their most recent starts at that same level. Baseline Beater rounds out the field, stepping up in class off a maiden win last month in his fifth career start.
Analysis and main win contenders:
Sun Thunder appears ready for his best effort based on a strong pattern of improvement and the fact that he has run the best of any horse in the field at the distance of 1 1/8 miles, just one sixteenth of a mile less than the distance of this race. Stretched out to two-turns in the second start of his career on New Year's Eve, Sun Thunder won convincingly by 6 1/2 lengths in a field of 12 while earning an 83 Equibase Speed Figure, then even though only managing fourth of eight in the Southwest Stakes near the end of January, he improved again, this time earning a 92 figure. Running at Fair Grounds for the first time five weeks ago in the Risen Star Stakes, Sun Thunder improved to a 94 figure when finishing second of 14. Not only that but Sun Thunder showed a lot of physical and mental prowess in the process as he rallied from 10th with three-eighths of a mile to go, to lead in the stretch, before being passed late and beaten one length, still clearly holding second by nearly two lengths.
Being a son of Into Mischief, sire of 2021 Louisiana Derby winner Mandaloun, there is no doubt Sun Thunder has what it takes to win this race and with just logical improvement off his most recent effort the colt can do just that.
Kingsbarns is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice. In spite of that, he may have what it takes to win based on his most recent effort. In his first race around two-turns he won easily by nearly eight lengths. The 100 figure earned in victory is the best last race figure in the field and second best among any horse in the race, with Jace's Road having earned a 101 figure winning the Gun Runner Stakes in December. Trained by Todd Pletcher, whose most recent win in the Louisiana Derby came in 2018 with Noble Indy, Kingsbarns is another colt with breeding to succeed in this race as sire Uncle Mo produced 2022 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Mo Donegal and 2020 Risen Star Stakes winner Modernist. Additionally, coming out of the race with the fastest early fractions, the Race Lens early pace projector suggests Kingsbarns may be the horse in front from the start. Considering he did not slow down in the last eighth of a mile in his most recent race, he may have the late kick needed to hold off the closers such as Sun Thunder and win this year's Louisiana Derby.
Instant Coffee has won three of four races, including two important stakes races in a row. The first of the pair was in November when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes with an 83 figure. Maturing over the next two months, Instant Coffee returned to win the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds rather decisively by 2 1/2 lengths, improving to earn a 99 figure, which is the second highest last race figure (behind Kingsbarns) in the field.
My only concern is why the colt has been away from the races for more than two months when logically he would have run in the Risen Star over the track last month. However, trainer Brad Cox (who also saddles Jace's Road and Tapit's Conquest) has a fine record with horses off layoffs in big events and in Kentucky Derby preps, including a win in the 2020 Louisiana Derby with Wells Bayou. Jockey Luis Saez, who has been aboard for the colt's last two wins, rides back. With improvement off the last effort and 99 figure, Instant Coffee can be the one getting his picture taken in the winner's circle after the race.
Honorable mention goes to a trio of horses perhaps just a cut below the top three. Those are Cagliostro, Denington and Jace's Road. Denington and Cagliostro were separated by a neck at the wire when first and second, respectively, in an allowance race at Fair Grounds last month run on the same day as the Risen Star. They earned 94 and 93 figures for those efforts, which do match up nicely with the 94 figure Sun Thunder earned later on the same day when second in the Risen Star. Denington previously finished fifth and was beaten under two lengths by Instant Coffee in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. Two races later, he was fourth behind the same horse in the Lecomte, so perhaps with a confidence booster under his belt he could be a contender. By a similar token, Cagliostro was close enough to Denington in his most recent start to believe he has a shot as well. Jace's Road showed he could compete at this level when winning the Gun Runner Stakes in January over the track before a fifth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Back at Fair Grounds he might revert to his previous form.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Baseline Beater (88), Curly Jack (91), Disarm (85), Shopper's Revenge (91), Single Ruler (92) and Tapit's Conquest (91).
Win Contenders:
Sun Thunder
Kingsbarns
Instant Coffee
Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race 12 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 25 – Post Time 6:42 p.m. ET
1 3/16 Miles
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1 Million
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase
The post Equibase Analysis: Improving Sun Thunder Tries To End Instant Coffee’s Streak In Louisiana Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
