This Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby brings together a field of 12, each with an opportunity to earn their share of the 85 points awarded (50 to the winner) on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby,” which to date is about as wide open as it has ever been with no standouts yet to emerge as early Derby favorites.
Classic Causeway won the local prep for this race last month, the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, in his first start of 2022 and hopes to continue improving. Sam F. Davis runner-up Shipsational also makes his second start as a 3-year old and will want to turn the tables on his foe. The fourth and fifth place finishers in the race, Strike Hard and Golden Glider, respectively, hope for better showings and 12th place finisher Trademark is back as well.
Coming out of the G3 Holy Bull last month are sixth place finisher Spin Wheel and eighth place finisher Giant Game; both will hope to improve significantly to be contenders in this race. Grantham finished fourth in the G3 Withers Stakes in New York last month, a race from which runner-up Un Ojo returned from to post the 75 to 1 upset in the Risen Star Stakes recently.
Strong recent winner Happy Boy Rocket steps into stakes competition for the first time warrants significant attention as he is handled by Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott and as he won at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby in his most recent race. Two more recent winners are Belgrade and Money Supply, both stepping up in class and stretching out to two turns for the first time but not without a chance.
Last but not least, Major General returns from six months off but is a perfect two-for-two to date including victory in the G3 Iroquois Stakes last summer at the distance of this race.
Top Win Contenders: Happy Boy Rocket, Classic Causeway, Shipsational
Worth Noting: Major General, Money Supply
To share why I think Happy Boy Rocket can post the upset and win this year's Tampa Bay Derby, we have to go back to the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes. In that race, Bill Mott saddled Candy Man Rocket to win fairly easily in a field of nine. Prior to that race, Candy Man Rocket broke his maiden in his second career start, first as a 3-year-old, five weeks earlier at Gulfstream Park. In doing so Mott proved once again why he's in the Hall-of-Fame as he can recognize when a young horse is capable of stepping up in class and competing at graded stakes level. Notably, Candy Man Rocket finished 11th in last year's Tampa Bay Derby, which is precisely why I feel Mott waited for this year's Tampa Bay Derby to move Happy Boy Rocket from maiden to stakes.
Adding blinkers for his second career start and first route in that maiden win, Happy Boy Rocket ran a visually impressive race as he was three paths wide for most of the race and five paths wide on the turn when he went from third to the lead entering the stretch, then just coasted home. The 91 
Equibase® Speed Figure wasn't sensational nor even close to the 104 figure Classic Causeway earned winning this year's Sam F. Davis, but we can expect about a 10-14 point improvement if history repeats. Not only did Mott saddle Candy Man Rocket to a Road to the Derby win in last year's Sam F. Davis off a maiden win, he also saddled 2020 Risen Star Stakes runner-up Modernist off a maiden win, and more importantly 2019 Tampa Bay Derby winner Tacitus off a maiden win.
In all, based on a Race Lens query, Mott has won seven of 25 dirt route stakes (and finished second four times) with horses coming off a maiden win over the last five years. From a good inside post, Happy Boy Rocket can stalk likely early leader Classic Causeway and if he shows the kind of passing ability on the turn as he did in his most recent race, Happy Boy Rocket can win this year's Tampa Bay Derby.
Classic Causeway won the Sam F. Davis pretty easily in the end, by nearly four lengths, with a field high 104 figure that should be improved upon in his second start following two and one-half months off. After breaking his maiden at first asking at the distance of seven furlongs last summer, Classic Causeway improved nicely although third when facing much better in the G1 Breeders' Futurity, also his first try around two turns. Earning a then career-best 95 figure when second in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November to finish off his 2-year-old campaign, Classic Causeway returned even stronger as a 3-year-old and could be the one to catch once more.
Shipsational was no match for Classic Causeway in the Sam F. Davis as the winner controlled the tempo from start to finish , but did manage to pass five horses when rallying from eighth to second and was pulling away from the third finisher at the end. Last year Shipsational earned a strong 95 figure winning the one-turn Bertram F. Bongard Stakes before a 94 figure effort winning the Sleepy Hollow Stakes, also a one-turn race. The Sam F. Davis was his first two-turn race and the 98 figure he earned is likely to be improved upon as he had been off three and one-half months before the race. As such Shipsational has a shot to leap frog Classic Causeway in terms of how fast he can run and is likely to go to post at higher odds as well.
Honorable mention goes to Major General and Money Supply. Major General is two-for-two including a win in the Iroquois Stakes at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby, but that was nearly six months ago. Trainer Todd Pletcher has had success off long layoffs in routes and sons of Constitution have done well on the Road to the Derby, particularly Tiz the Law, who won the 2020 Florida Derby. Money Supply not only tries two turns for the first time but also goes from maiden to stakes. Then again, trainer Chad Brown is no stranger to the move, having won the Withers Stakes this year with Early Voting and also the 2021 Withers with Risk Taking off maiden wins.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Belgrade (88), Giant Game (90), Golden Glider (92), Grantham (87), Spin Wheel (86), Strike Hard (94) and Trademark (93).
Win Contenders, in probability order:
Happy Boy Rocket
Classic Causeway
Shipsational
Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby – Grade 2
Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday, March 12 – Post Time 5:23 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $400,000
The post Equibase Analysis: Happy Boy Rocket Poised To Upset Tampa Bay Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
