This Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the local prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks later and brings together a field of 12 (plus one also-eligible) vying for all-important points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby as well as possible favoritism in next month's race.
In terms of the best efforts in the best races to date, G2 Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Classic Causeway deserves mentioning first as he was sent to post as the seven-to-five favorite in that race at the end of November and was clearly second best in that field of 11.
God of Love certainly has the right credentials, having won the G3 Grey Stakes around the same time as the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall.
Strike Hard was second in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year's Day, with Mr Rum Runner checking in third that day, and both may be able to improve in their first graded stakes tries.
Make It Big won the Springboard Mile Stakes in mid-December and is undefeated in three starts so is certainly no slouch.
Shipsational has won three of four races including the Sleepy Hollow Stakes in October. He is returning from the longest layoff of any in this field as he has not run since then.
Howling Time checked in a poor fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club when last seen in November but won the Street Sense Stakes prior to that and must be respected based on that effort.
The rest of the field consists of six horses and not one of them is in what anyone could call bad form, each having won in one of their two most recent races, either in maiden or allowance company. These are Golden Glider, Kitten Mischief, Little Vic (the lone also-eligible), Trademark, Unpredictable Bay and Volcanic.
Main win contenders:
God of Love will get top billing among five horses who I feel have the bulk of the probability to win this year's Sam F. Davis Stakes. The reason is he has won two of three two-turn races, both stakes, and his final effort of 2021 was a strong victory in the Grey Stakes at the end of November. Although run on all-weather, the Grey Stakes has its place in Road to the Kentucky Derby history, as 2008 Derby winner Mine that Bird won the 2007 edition of the race. Prior to the Grey, God of Love stretched out to two turns for his second career start last fall and won with a rally from ninth of 11 after hopping in the air at the start. Two races later in the Grey, he rallied from ninth of 10, circling the field four paths wide and in visually impressive fashion before pulling away late.
Jockey Rafael Hernandez has been aboard in all four of his starts and certainly knows how to get the colt to run well. The 95 
Equibase® Speed Figure God of Love earned when winning the Grey Stakes is near the top of the field and is very likely to be improved upon as the colt is a more mature 3-year-old as compared to when seen last fall. There is little concern about coming back from the layoff since the end of November, considering White Abarrio came back from an identical layoff (his last race having been in the Kentucky Jockey Club) to win the Holy Bull Stakes last weekend and God of Love's trainer, Mark Casse, won the 2021 Tampa Bay Derby with Helium off a layoff from the previous fall.
Another comparable factor exists between Helium and God of Love, in that Helium had won the Display Stakes at Woodbine in his last start as a 2-year-old just like God of Love won the Grey Stakes in his last start as a 2-year-old. Back to the comparison between 2007 Grey Stakes winner Mine that Bird and God of Love, it can be recalled that returning off a three month layoff in February, 2008, Mine that Bird finished second in the Borderland Derby then two races later posted the 50 to 1 upset at Churchill Downs. God of Love may not be that good yet, but he may be good enough to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes in his 3-year-old debut.
Classic Causeway is also returning from a layoff since the last week in November, when second in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Prior to that Classic Causeway finished third in the Breeders' Futurity, earning a 92 figure, which he improved to 95 in the Jockey Club. That race has become a “key race” because it has been quite productive to date, with seventh-place finisher Call Me Midnight winning the Lecomte Stakes earlier this year and with third-place finisher White Abarrio winning the Holy Bull Stakes last week. Considering Classic Causeway was nearly three lengths in front of White Abarrio in the Kentucky Jockey Club, it is logical to assume this colt will run as well or better in his 3-year-old debut and as such he must be taken very seriously as a contender to win this race.
Howling Time faded to fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club after leading through the opening seven furlongs. He had changed tactics in that race when going for the lead because in his two prior efforts, both wins, Howling Time had rallied from off the pace and drawn off from the field in the last eighth of a mile. One of those wins came in his second career start and first race around two turns (also at the distance of the Sam F. Davis) in which Howling Time won the Street Sense Stakes easily by 3 1/4 lengths and earned a 96 figure. Although he faded to fifth in the Jockey Club, the fact that race has turned out to be so productive bodes well for Howling Time returning to top form. The colt also put in a very good five furlong workout in 59 seconds flat one week ago, and trainer Dale Romans won the 2018 Fountain of Youth Stakes with Promises Fulfilled who was coming back from a layoff similar to the one Howling Time returns from.
Strike Hard and Make It Big deserve mentioning as well. Strike Hard finished second to Simplification in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last month and was seven lengths clear of the third horse. Simplification came back to run extremely well in the Holy Bull Stakes last week when second after breaking poorly. Considering Strike Hard has earned competitive 92 and 93 figures in his last two races, he deserves some respect in this situation. Make It Big won the Springboard Mile Stakes in December in his most recent race, bringing his record to a perfect three-for-three. That was his first two-turn race and he passed the test with flying colors because he had to fight off a bid which started with three-sixteenths of a mile to run. In the end, the colt prevailed by a half-length and earned a career-best 89 figure which can be improved upon.
The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Golden Glider (91), Kitten Mischief (96), Little Vic (96), Mr Rum Runner (86), Shipsational (94), Trademark (93), Unpredictable Bay (99) and Volcanic (94).
Main Win Contenders, in probability order:
God of Love
Classic Causeway
Howling Time
Sam F. Davis Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday, February 12 – Post Time 4:54 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $250,000
