The Grade 1, $1 million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes, a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, didn't draw a big field but it drew a very strong field of six, with three millionaires and a budding superstar who can go over the $1 million mark in career earnings with a victory.
That horse is Flightline, who is undefeated and untested in four starts to date, winning by a combined margin of 43 1/2 lengths. Still, there are questions, as this talented colt is being asked to run around two-turns for the first time and to run the mile and one-quarter distance for the first time.
One of those in the field already proven at the distance is Country Grammer, who has banked $10 million in his career, most of it when winning the Group 1 Dubai World Cup in March. Country Grammer also won the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes in May of 2021 at the distance of the Pacific Classic. Royal Ship missed by a head in last year's Gold Cup behind Country Grammer and enters the race off an easy win in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap over the track. Express Train proved he belongs with these horses by winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap at the distance this past March. Extra Hope has never run this far and his best career effort came when winning the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes at Del Mar in the fall of 2020. Stilleto Boy earned his biggest win in the Grade 2 Californian Stakes in April, beating Express Train, but has only managed fourth- and third-place efforts since and has never finished better than third at this classic distance.
Top Contenders to win:
Before I get to Flightline, I want to talk about Royal Ship and Country Grammer. These two have met three times previously, with Country Grammer coming out on top once (in the 2021 Hollywood Gold Cup) and with Royal Ship coming out on top twice. The first of those two occasions was in the 2021 Californian Stakes, where the two horses battled head-and-head for the entire last eighth of a mile, and the second was at the end of July, where Royal Ship drew off with authority in the San Diego Handicap. In the 2021 Gold Cup as well as in the recent San Diego, Royal Ship earned and then tied career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figures, the same figure as Country Grammer earned in his Gold Cup victory. Country Grammer bettered that figure this February when second in the Saudi Cup with a 117 figure then earned one of the top figures this year, 128, when winning the Dubai World Cup one month later. However, he only managed a 106 figure in the San Diego Handicap.
One of the more important considerations is that in the San Diego, both horses were coming back from layoffs, with Royal Ship having been off two months and Country Grammer having been off four months. Given that both are making their second starts off layoffs, it is reasonable to assume they can improve at the same rate.
That being the case, Royal Ship will be my top selection to win this year's Pacific Classic, particularly as his three workouts since the San Diego Handicap have been nothing short of spectacular. Considering Hall-of-Fame trainer Richard Mandella is not known for fast workouts, the fact the horse put in a :46.20 half-mile drill (best of 30) on August 11 and a :47.40 workout on August 28 (sixth best of 77) strongly suggests Royal Ship is going to run even better than he did earlier this summer at Del Mar. That being said, I also expect Country Grammer to run strongly, which could lead to a head-and-head battle down the length of the stretch as occurred when they met in the Hollywood Gold Cup in 2021.
Now, about Flightline. There is no doubting his innate athletic ability and in four races he has not given another horse even the slightest chance to win in the last quarter mile. He won the Malibu Stakes in December with a 126 figure which is pretty unheard of for a 3-year-old, and when coming back from nearly six months off in the Metropolitan Handicap in June, Flightline earned a 114 figure which could have been higher as he coasted home easily. Still, he has never run around two turns and the farthest he has run is one mile around one turn.
There's an old maxim in handicapping that one should never bet a favorite (which Flightline will be) trying something for the first time, and I plan to stick to that rule. As a son of Tapit there is little doubt a mile and one-quarter is in his pedigree, but when I consider the 127 and 126 figures he earned last September and December are the same as the 128 figure Country Grammer earned winning the Dubai World Cup in March, and that the World Cup was run at the mile and one-quarter distance of the Classic, I have to believe Country Grammer is more likely to win than Flightline. As I also believe Royal Ship is more probable to win than Country Grammer, I am left with no other choice than to believe no matter how talented Flightline is, he has his work cut out for him in the Pacific Classic.
The other three Pacific Classic entrants, with their best figures, are Express Train (110). Extra Hope (111) and Stilleto Boy (117).
Win Contenders in preference, handicapper's probability order:
Royal Ship
Country Grammer
Flightline
TVG Pacific Classic Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Del Mar
Saturday, September 3 – Post Time 8:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
3-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase
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