The $1 million, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the local prep at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, drew a field of 11 3-year-olds trying to earn the winner's share of 50 points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system, not to mention the minimum $600,000 which goes to the winning owner.
Newgrange will undoubtedly be the public betting favorite on the strength of being undefeated in three races including the G3 Southwest Stakes, the local prep for this race four weeks ago.
The only other two-turn stakes winner in the field is Dash Attack, who was victorious in the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year's Day. However, it must be noted Dash Attack draws a potentially disadvantageous far outside post in the gate.
Barber Road finished fast from 11th of 12 in the Southwest to get second behind Newgrange and may be considered to have a shot particularly as he also finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes behind Dash Attack prior to that. Ben Diesel was second with an eighth of a mile to run in the Southwest before being passed by Barber Road and ended up third.
Un Ojo is named such as he has just one eye but that has not kept him from running two big races in a row, first when second in the New York Stallion Series Stakes and then when second in the G3 Withers Stakes three weeks ago.
Kavod won the Advent Stakes around one turn in December but finished fourth after leading with an eight of a mile to go in both the Smarty Jones and in the Southwest.
Two recent winners by many lengths step into stakes for the first time and both may deserve attention. Chasing Time won his most recent start, at Oaklawn, by 7 3/4 lengths, while Ethereal Road won by four lengths over the track.
Texas Red Hot returns from three months off and was last seen finishing 10th in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Cairama was third behind Kavod in the Advent in December but could only manage a sixth place finish in the Smarty Jones. Stellar Tap rounds out the field and may have ability to improve off a third place effort five weeks ago when returning from nearly four months away from the races.
Main win contenders:
Chasing Time could be the horse most capable of posting the upset over heavily favored Newgrange in this year's Rebel Stakes. Except for a fourth place debut effort last September, the colt has done little wrong in winning two and finishing second in his other two races. His best effort came when stretched out to two turns for the first time on Jan. 14 at Oaklawn. Leading for the first quarter mile, Chasing Time relinquished the lead for the next half-mile before retaking the front with a quick burst of speed to pull away by 2 1/2 lengths before coasting home by nearly eight lengths in “ridden out” fashion, which is like having nearly a full tank of gas even after the race. The result was a 91 
Equibase® Speed Figure which could have been higher and puts him in range of the 98 figure Newgrange earned in the Southwest Stakes, which followed a 93 figure effort.
It just so happens 93 was the figure Chasing Time earned two before last when winning easily as well. Chasing Time is by relatively new sire Not This Time, whose first foals hit the track in 2020. Yet, two of the sire's newly turned 3-year-olds like Chasing Time are strong contenders on the 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby, with Epicenter having just won the Risen Star last weekend and Simplification recently second in the Holy Bull after winning the Mucho Macho Man.
Trainer Steve Asmussen goes to jockey Tyler Gaffalione to ride Chasing Time for the first time and that is of no concern as they have a strong record together of 10 for 39 in the past year. As such, Chasing Time appears to have what it will take to beat the favorite and win the Rebel.
Eighty-six year old trainer D. Wayne Lukas, affectionately known as “The Coach” and a Hall-of-Fame inductee more than two decades ago in 1999, has won the Kentucky Derby four times. He may have a candidate for this year's edition in Ethereal Road, who is likely to go to post in the Rebel at high odds. The son of Quality Road got to run on a fast track around two turns for the first time last month, in the fourth start of his career. The result was a visually impressive rally from 12th in the early stages, more than 15 lengths back. At the top of the stretch Ethereal Road was still almost three lengths back before drawing off easily to win by four lengths.
The 88 figure earned is 10 points, or about five lengths, slower than the 98 figure Newgrange earned in the Southwest, but the colt is projected to improve at least five points in his second route and if the favorite does not improve, Ethereal Road could run a lot better than his high odds suggest he will.
An interesting Race Lens angle is in play here as well. Since Jan. 1, 3-year-olds in graded stakes routes on dirt which just earned their first wins have won four of 11 times. This is because these types of horses must get on the Derby trail now and some of them can improve dramatically from one race to the next, which is what I'm hoping Ethereal Road will do in this race.
Newgrange earned an 89 figure in his debut, sprinting three-quarters of a mile, and then improved to 93 when stretched out to a mile around two turns in the Sham Stakes on New Year's Day. Shipping to Oaklawn four weeks later on Jan. 29, Newgrange relaxed in third in the early stages then rallied from fourth early in the stretch to draw off by a length and one-half, improving to a career-best 93 figure. John Velazquez has been aboard in all three starts and rides back. The colt put in a very strong five furlong workout before leaving his home base at Santa Anita which was the best of 46 on the day at the distance. There is no question Newgrange is fit and has the physical and mental ability to win this race.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Barber Road (95), Ben Diesel (93), Cairama (86), Dash Attack (90), Kavod (91), Stellar Tap (87), Texas Red Hot (85) and Un Ojo (76).
Win Contenders:
Chasing Time
Ethereal Road
Newgrange
Rebel Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, February 26 – Post Time 6:22 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million
The post Equibase Analysis: Chasing Time, Ethereal Road Candidates To Upset Newgrange In The Rebel appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
