Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Regret Stakes at Churchill Downs drew six 3-year-old fillies, but with three of the group stakes winners or stakes placed it should be a great race.
Kneesnhips is the only horse in the field with a stakes win on grass, that coming when victorious in the Allen “Black Cat” LaCombe Memorial Stakes in March. McKulick finished third in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes last fall in only the second start of her career, then was clearly second in her first start of 2022 one month ago in the Grade 3 Edgewood Stakes, in which Kneesnhips finished fourth. Candy Raid won the Bourbonette Oaks on the all-weather Tapeta surface in April before a troubled trip in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last month when checking in ninth. Beside Herself and Walkathon both enter the Regret off wins on grass but in allowance races so are stepping up in class. Lola Flo rounds out the compact group, also coming into the race off a win on turf, but in a claiming level race.
Win contenders:
Candy Raid has won three of 11 races in her career, but her best effort by far came on April 2 in the Bourbonette Oaks, run on the all-weather Tapeta surface at Turfway Park. Beginning last of 12, Candy Raid had no early speed and was still ninth after three-quarters of a mile had been run. Then, in the next furlong, jockey Rafael Bejarano, who was riding her for the first time, moved her past seven horses to gain second place with an eighth of a mile to run. Continuing with superb momentum, Candy Raid blew past the remaining horse to win by four and one-half lengths. That effort earned her a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, which is second only to the 103 figure McKulick (GB) earned in her most recent race. Next seen on conventional dirt in the Kentucky Oaks on May 6, Candy Raid raced last of 14 for the first five-eighths of a mile before running into traffic trouble where she was bumped and bothered, necessitating Bejarano to shift her path out into the stretch, when she passed some horses to end up ninth. Moving to turf is no concern although she is winless in two previous tries on the turf.
The reason I expect Candy Raid to run well on the grass is the only other foal of her dam is Last Samurai, a graded stakes winner at this 1 1/8-mile distance on dirt who has a win and a second-place finish in three turf races as well. With two strong workouts since the Kentucky Oaks, with Bejarano staying aboard and with breeding that screams turf, I think Candy Raid can repeat her Bourbonette Oaks effort and win this year's Regret Stakes.
McKulick has twice proven she belongs at this level on turf. After breaking her maiden at first asking on the turf at Saratoga last August, McKulick stepped right into stakes company and wasn't disgraced one bit when finishing third in the Miss Grillo Stakes, just a head from the runner-up. After taking seven months off to mature physically and mentally, McKulick returned on turf in the Edgewood Stakes on Kentucky Oaks day. Although she was out-finished by winner New Year's Eve, who had already run this year, McKulick was 4 1/2 lengths clear of the next horse with an effort earning her a field high 103 figure. Making her second start off the layoff, it is logical to assume McKulick (GB) will run even better in the Regret so it would be no surprise to find her getting her picture taken in the winner's circle after this race has been run.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Beside Herself (89), Kneesnhips (92), Lola Flo (78) and Walkathon (91).
Win Contenders:
Candy Raid
McKulick (GB)
Regret Stakes – Grade 3
Race 5 at Churchill Downs
Saturday, June 4 – Post Time 2:45 PM E.T.
One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf
Fillies, Three Years Olds
Purse: $200,000
Ellis Starr is National Racing Analyst for Equibase
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