The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing in Bensalem, Pa., drew a nearly full field of 11 3-year-olds, with five entering the race off wins.
Los Alamitos Derby winner Reincarnate will attempt to give trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Pennsylvania Derby win in the past 10 years, including in 2022 with Taiba. Il Miracolo is another horse entering the race off a win, having captured the Smarty Jones Stakes last month over the Parx surface. Scotland won the Curlin Stakes at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby in July before finishing sixth after leading for the first mile in the 1 1/4-mile G1 Travers Stakes last month.
Saudi Crown has come close to winning a pair of stakes at this level, first when beaten a nose in the G3 Dwyer Stakes then when beaten a nose in the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes. Similarly, Dreamlike came close when beaten a nose and a head in the G2 Wood Memorial in April, before a win at the distance in July followed by a fifth of seven finish last month, neither in stakes races. West Coast Cowboy finished second in the G3 West Virginia Derby last month and is another who has proven competitive at the level. Gilmore earned his best placing when second in the G3 Bay Shore Stakes in April at a shorter distance, before third-place finishes in the G2 Pat Day Mile Stakes and G1 Woody Stephens Stakes, and won his most recent race last month at Saratoga. Daydreaming Boy ran his best race in a stakes this year in his most recent start when third, beaten 4 3/4 lengths by Il Miracolo in the Smarty Jones. Magic Tap enters the Pennsylvania Derby, his first try in a stakes, off a powerful win at the distance last month at Saratoga. Crupi enters the race off a win in an allowance race but was seventh and ninth in his only two previous stakes efforts. Modern Era, a maiden with a zero-for-eight career record, rounds out the field.
Main win contenders:
Saudi Crown has yet to win a stakes race in the 3-year-old division this year, but not for lack of trying or for lack of ability. When stretched out to a mile for his third career start, in the Dwyer Stakes in June, Saudi Crown ran very well, earning a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and battling gamely for the entire length of the stretch head and head with eventual winner Fort Bragg, coming up just a nose shy of victory on the wire.
Stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Jim Dandy Stakes four weeks later, Saudi Crown was once again exceptionally game, because after leading from the start he battled down to the wire with favorite Forte, just losing in the final stride by the bob of a head. That effort, at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby, earned an improved 109 figure. With a good inside post for this race, which should allow jockey Florent Geroux the ability to secure the lead and the rail from the start, Saudi Crown could take another step forward and although there may be competition in the final yards once again, this time he could prevail to win.
Scotland also has run the best race of his career at the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Pennsylvania Derby. That effort came in the Curlin Stakes in July at Saratoga where, after leading from the start, Scotland was engaged by Il Miracolo, who drew even with Scotland for a half-mile as the pair battled head and head. During that time, Scotland would not give the lead away, eventually asserting himself to draw off by 3 1/4 lengths, earning a 107 figure in the process. A few weeks later, Scotland was flattered when Curlin runner-up Il Miracolo won the Smarty Jones Stakes by three lengths while drifting out badly down the stretch.
In his next start on Aug. 26, traveling the longer distance of 1 1/4 miles over a muddy track, Scotland faded to sixth after leading for the first mile of the race. Back at the distance of his last win, and having shown he's not just a need-the-lead type as he rallied from seventh to win one race before the Curlin, Scotland could rebound. If he does, he could run well enough to win this year's Pennsylvania Derby.
Magic Tap was as impressive and as fast when winning at the distance of the Pennsylvania Derby last month at Saratoga as either Saudi Crown was in the Jim Dandy or as Scotland was in the Curlin. Although only an allowance race, Magic Tap continued his pattern of improvement, from a 93 figure three races back to 98, then to 110 in that victory on Aug. 13. In that race, Magic Tap was close to the early pace while second from the start, about a half-length from the leader, but then the leader got away by 2 1/2 lengths with an eighth of a mile to go. Closing mercilessly in the final yards, Magic Tap prevailed by a neck, so he too appears to be a formidable contender in this race.
About the likely favorite:
As to the likely public betting choice Reincarnate, there are a number of factors which, in my opinion, suggest his probability to win is much lower than that suggested by his odds. First, he draws the outside post in this nearly full field. Combined with a running style that suggests he needs to lead from the start to win, given that all three of his victories have been earned that way, his outside post dictates jockey Juan Hernandez will have to use a lot of the colt's speed to get good position before the first turn and avoid going wide and losing ground. This is a lot to ask because it appears very likely Saudi Crown will have the lead from the start as the two horses inside of him in the gate have no desire to go to the front early.
With Magic Tap and Scotland also both possessing excellent tactical speed, this may cause Reincarnate to go too fast in the early stages to remain a strong factor at the wire. Additionally, his two best efforts, when winning the Sham Stakes in January, and when winning the Los Alamitos Derby last month, earned 103 and 101 figures, respectively. When compared to the 109 figure Saudi Crown earned in his most recent race, the 110 figure Magic Tap earned in his most recent race and the 107 figure Scotland earned one race before last, Reincarnate does not appear capable of improving to run as fast as is needed to win this race.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Crupi (95), Daydreaming Boy (104), Dreamlike (99), Gilmore (110), Il Miracolo (102), Modern Era (78) and West Coast Cowboy (98).
Win contenders:
Saudi Crown
Scotland
Magic Tap
Pennsylvania Derby – Grade 1, $1 million
Race 13 at Parx Racing; Saturday September 23
Post Time 6:10 PM E.T.
1 1/8 Miles, 3-Year-Olds
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase
The post Equibase Analysis: Can Saudi Crown Be Caught In Pennsylvania Derby? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
