Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby features the second meeting between Call Me Midnight, the winner of Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January, and Epicenter, who was second in the Lecomte before easily winning the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes last month.
Risen Star fourth-place finisher Pioneer of Medina will try to improve, as will Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes fourth-place finisher Galt, who did not finish in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes three weeks ago when he stumbled and lost his rider on the far turn. Rattle N Roll, who won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity last fall, attempts to improve off a sixth-place Fountain of Youth effort. Silent Power recently finished fourth in the non-graded Big Drama Stakes, with his only win in eight career starts coming in his career debut last June. Recent 10-length winner Zozos, who is undefeated in two starts, steps into stakes company for the first time for the powerful barn of Brad Cox, while recent maiden winner Curly Tail makes his third start off a layoff and could also have a say in the outcome. Kupuna is running in a stakes race for the first time and enters the race following a second-place finish behind up-and-coming star Cyberknife, on the same day as the Risen Star.
Analysis and main win contenders:
Although Epicenter possesses excellent early speed and may be the one to catch just as he was in the Risen Star Stakes five weeks ago, he could not hold off Call Me Midnight four weeks earlier in the Lecomte Stakes over the track, and that is the scenario I foresee again in the Louisiana Derby. In the Lecomte, Epicenter established an easy lead on fairly brisk fractions but Call Me Midnight rallied from eighth of nine early and 12 lengths back, to get up by a head on the wire, earning a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.
When Epicenter returned four weeks later to win the Risen Star Stakes, he once again led from start to finish, but just equaled the 97 figure earned in the Lecomte. In the Gun Runner Stakes on New Year's Day, Epicenter also earned a 97 figure, so now has run just as fast but no faster in three straight races. That is not the optimal pattern for a 3-year-old in the spring. On the other hand, Call Me Midnight, who was flattered when Lecomte runner-up Epicenter won the Risen Star, has been rested since near the end of January but shows every sign of being as fit as when last seen, having put in a half-mile workout at Fair Grounds seven days ago which was the second best of 110 on the day. As such, Call Me Midnight gets preference over Epicenter as the top contender to win this year's Louisiana Derby.
Then there's Kupuna, who shares something in common with Call Me Midnight although they have never faced each other. Out of the Lecomte, not only did Epicenter return to win the Risen Star, but sixth-place finisher Cyberknife returned to win impressively earlier on the same day as the Risen Star. Cyberknife earned a 100 figure winning that day, which was faster than Epicenter (97) later in the program. Kupuna was second to Cyberknife in that race, earning a 95 figure which I think he can improve upon. Trainer Bred Calhoun won the 2019 Louisiana Derby with By My Standards at 22-1 odds and since this colt put in two brilliant five-furlong drills over the track since that last race another potential upset is not out of the question.
Honorable mention goes to Curly Tail. Although the colt just broke his maiden in his sixth career start, he leapfrogged to a 92 figure. That race on Feb. 26 was his second following two months off and so an even better performance is possible. Trainer Dallas Stewart is another known for saddling horses for odds-beating efforts, most notably Out for a Spin in the 2019 Ashland Stakes at 50-1 odds, so I would not count Curly Tail out when considering wagers involving this race.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Galt (93), Pioneer of Medina (96), Rattle N Roll (100), Silent Power (88) and Zozos (90).
Win Contenders:
Call Me Midnight
Epicenter
Kupuna
Also consider Curly Tail for any exotic wagers like the exacta or trifecta made in this race.
Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race 12 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 26 – Post Time 6:44 p.m. ET
1 3/16 Miles
3-Year-Olds
Purse: $1 Million
Ellis Starr is National Racing Analyst for Equibase
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