Category: Horse Racing News

Letter to the Editor: Middle-Distance Focus is a Breeder’s Best Bet

Following from the excellent feature by Emma Berry in discussion with Harry Sweeney in Thursday's TDN, I felt compelled to write in. I, like many breeders and fans alike, was disappointed when the news of Adayar, Hukum and Westover's departures filtered through. Through various debates/heated discussions with my colleagues and fellow industry members, the usual argument was thrown back – would you use them yourself? Are they commercial?

Harry Sweeney's comments sparked a different debate in my mind. Theoretically we are all supposed to be breeding with the aim of producing top-class horses. By breeding for speed and the commercial market, are we really giving ourselves the best chance of achieving that goal? The Return of Mares suggests the majority believes it is, however the statistics suggest the opposite is true.

In 146 runnings of the Group 1 sprints in Europe over the past 30 years, 71% (103)  have been won by older horses with just 29% (43) won by three-year-olds and under.

Let me make it clear that this is not to blame the connections of Hukum, Adayar and Westover who have simply looked for the best opportunity for their middle-distance stars in Japan. Only a fool would argue that these horses would be given a better chance at stud in Europe than they are going to enjoy in Japan. We all seem to know it's wrong so the question is why does it keep happening? Harry Sweeney rightly pointed out that there are only two Group 1 races at sprint distances in Japan in the JRA. Are today's breeders aware that there is only one Group 1 sprint for three-year-olds only in Europe? There are 11 Group 1 races over 10f-plus restricted to three-year-olds. If that's not enough to encourage breeders to move away from cheap speed and precocity, add in races over a mile or further and the number of age-restricted Group 1s for your three-year-old is 17. And if that's still not enough, what about the following:

  • The only Group 1 sprint for three-year-olds only is over six furlongs so if your three-year-old sprinter is a 5f specialist, he/she will be taking on older horses from the day they turn three.
  • In 2023, Bradsell and Shaquille were the only three-year-olds to win one of 14 Group 1s over 5f-6f in Europe.
  • In the past 20 years, only three three-year-olds have won the King's Stand Stakes.
  • Four three-year-olds won the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes in the 20 years prior to it becoming restricted to four-year-olds and older in 2015 following the formation of the Commonwealth Cup (the only G1 sprint for three year olds only).
  • Eight three-year-olds have won the July Cup in the past 20 years.
  • Five three-year-olds have won the Prix Maurice de Gheest in the past 20 years  .
  • Four three-year-olds and one two-year-old have won the Nunthorpe in the past 20 years.
  • Nine three-year-olds have won the Haydock Sprint Cup in the same period.
  • In six runnings as a Group 1, the Flying Five Stakes has been won twice by three-year-olds.
  • The Prix de l'Abbaye has been won six times by three-year-olds and once by a two-year-old in the past 20 years.

Granted it may not be quite as black and white as Japan's lone pair of Group 1 sprints. However, that's at JRA tracks only versus the entirety of the Pattern in Europe. If the perceived time and patience, and thus extra cost, is your deterrent from breeding middle-distance horses the evidence suggests a change of direction. The best chance of striking at the highest level is undoubtedly with middle-distance horses and if you're not trying to give yourself the best chance of being the best then what's the point? Harry's reasons behind Japan's key focus seem equally applicable here in theory but for some unfortunate reason, not in practice.

Sincerely,
Laura Joy, Ireland

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Dominance is What Elite Sport is All About

The growing supremacy of the Willie Mullins stable in National Hunt racing begs the question: is it damaging anybody or anything?

Dominance is the raison d'etre of elite sport. When Rafa Nadal was winning 14 French Open tennis titles it never entered his head that what he was doing might be harmful to the game. Manchester City won't be thinking that five Premier League title wins in six seasons is quite enough, thank you very much, and that to make it six in seven would be detrimental. If you're preaching against reigns and dynasties, you might as well chastise the tide for going in and out.

But the issue raised by the Mullins operation's brilliant scouting and training of jump racers isn't about his right to annex the sport. The small flares of disquiet relate more to the effect it might have on public enjoyment, other trainers and owners, betting turnover and the sport's profile at a time when National Hunt racing is bedevilled by small fields and worrying economic indicators.

Let's lay out the stats.

  • Mullins is even money to train more winners at this year's Cheltenham Festival than Great Britain (one trainer versus a whole country)
  • He has 14 ante-post favourites for the 28 races at next month's meeting.
  • At the recent Dublin Racing Festival he won all eight Grade 1 races and saddled 29 of the 48 Grade 1 runners
  • Ten of the last 13 Cheltenham Festival leading trainer's titles have made their way back to his base in County Carlow
  • Entries for this year's Supreme, Ballymore, Albert Bartlett and Triumph revealed a total of 80 names from the Mullins yard

Nobody disputes the skill (and wealth) required to spot, buy, train and deliver horses capable of overwhelming Henry de Bromhead, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott. Henderson, it should be said, has the best horse in National Hunt training – Constitution Hill. The Mullins numbers are powerless to negate that reality. The hard part is knowing when success becomes weaponised – and starts to do harm.

Dissenting voices are few. Richard Johnson, the former champion jockey, is an admirer of Mullins, but sounded an ominous note in a recent discussion with BoyleSports bookmakers. Johnson said: “It definitely is not good for racing. It is not good for competitive sport. When you are looking at the racing at Dublin last weekend people were saying Irish racing is so strong. It's not Irish racing. It's Willie Mullins who is so strong.”

Johnson's belief that Mullins is distorting the Anglo-Irish balance of power is contradicted by this year's Grand National entries. Astonishingly: 61 of the 94 are trained in Ireland (54 was the previous high).

Another part of Johnson's lament is the repetitive nature of the storyline, which you could also sometimes diagnose in Flat racing, with Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore. “Looking at more of the same isn't great and doesn't encourage new people into our sport,” Johnson said.

Is this true? Plenty on the other side point to Tiger Woods and Usain Bolt and ask whether interest dipped when golf and Olympics sprinting felt like pageants.

In his Daily Mail column at the weekend, ITV Racing's Ed Chamberlin wrote: “Of course, true sport relies on competition but does the might of Mullins threaten to ruin Cheltenham? Not for one second. The archetypal racegoer to Cheltenham, or ITV viewer, simply wants a good time and a bet, especially an each-way one.”

Evidence to prove an exodus by punters put-off by odds-on favourites constantly 'going in' for Mullins would be hard to find, given the other possible socio-economic explanations for betting turnover fluctuations. And so far rival trainers are understandably wary of graffitiing the Mullins legend with accusations of unfairness.

Mullins is only six short of a century of Cheltenham Festival winners and we can expect the 100 to be reached next month at a course where, in 2022, he won a record 10 of the 28 races. Having 29 of the 86 entries for the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle is only one illustration of his power to swarm the biggest targets.

In football and other team sports, when a trophy is being raised and the tickertape is falling, a journalistic reflex prompts us to ask: is this the start of a dynasty, should everyone else panic, is a new age of dominance upon us? With Liverpool in the 1970s and 80s – yes. With Manchester United subsequently – yes. With Manchester City now – yes.

Often dominance entrances us. Sometimes it suggests imbalance, repetition, staleness, even injustice, if money is the real dominating force. The shadow debate in jump racing around the Mullins numbers hasn't shed much light on the effect on other good yards of owners taking the easy option of sending horses to Closutton, or on the polarisation of wealth in National Hunt racing, or whether racegoers and punters care who saddled the winner.

One thing, we know: being too polite to even discuss those aspects is a quiet form of harm.

 

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Endlessly Stamps Preakness Ticket With El Camino Real Derby Win

Endlessly (Oscar Performance) got back in the winner's circle and earned himself a trip to the Triple Crown's middle jewel with a win in Saturday's El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate. Having gone three for three to start his career, including wins in both the GIII Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. and the GIII Zuma Beach S., the son of Oscar Performance tried his hand at the top level but came up empty when eighth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last November. Nominated to the Triple Crown series despite never having started on anything but the grass, Endlessly took the synthetic surface at Golden Gate with style. Breaking from the outside, the 3-5 favorite had only one rival beat passing the wire the first time by and he remained in a trailing position into the backstretch as several longshots traded turns on the lead. Put to a ride by Umberto Rispoli into the far turn, Endlessly responded in kind and began to eat into the leader's advantage to be amongst the top trio as the field swung into the stretch. With a late charge down the center of the track, the colt secured the win.

One of six stakes winners for Oscar Perfomance, Endlessly is out of a half-sister to the dams of GISW Coffee Clique (Medaglia d'Oro), MGSW Admission Office (Point of Entry) and MGSP Royal Fury (Langfuhr). Dream Fuhrever produced this runner's full-brother last year.

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY, $101,350, Golden Gate Fields, 2-10, 3yo, 1 1/8m (AWT), 1:50.68, ft.
1–ENDLESSLY, 122, c, 3, by Oscar Performance
                1st Dam: Dream Fuhrever, by Langfuhr
                2nd Dam: Society Dream (Fr), by Akarad (Fr)
                3rd Dam: Society Bride, by Blushing Groom (Fr)
O/B-Jerry Amerman (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy; J-Umberto Rispoli. $60,000. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-4-0-0, $299,200.
2–Tapalo, 122, r, 3, Tapiture–Agent Romanoff, by Empire Maker. ($40,000 Ylg '22 OBSWIN; $20,000 Ylg '22 SARAUG; $55,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR). 1ST BLACK TYPE. O-Hronis Racing LLC; B-Saratoga Glen Farm, LLC (NY); T-John W. Sadler. $20,000.
3–Guy Named Joe, 122, c, 3, American Pharoah–Hungry Island, by More Than Ready. ($280,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $100,000 2yo '23 OBSOPN). 1ST BLACK TYPE. O-My Way Racing LLC, West Coast Stables, LLC, Barbara Evenson, John O'Keefe and Timothy O'Keefe; B-Emory A. Hamilton (KY); T-Doug F. O'Neill. $12,000.
Margins: 1 1/4, 1 3/4, 4. Odds: 0.70, 3.70, 3.60.
Also Ran: Old Triangle, Grogu, Come Out Fighting, Arctic Breeze, Wild Jewels.

 

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