Brown Advisory Novices Chase Cheltenham Wednesday 13th March
The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, a prominent Grade 1 race at the Cheltenham Festival, is a key event for novice chasers. A review of historical data reveals trends that can be instrumental in predicting potential winners. Here’s a summary of the most significant trends:
Age and Experience:
The majority of winners are 7 years old, suggesting that this age provides the optimal balance of youth and experience for this race.
Betting Odds:
Favourites have a strong track record, with half of the last 12 winners being favourites.
Moreover, 9 out of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, indicating that the betting market is a reliable indicator of a horse’s chances.
Recent Performance:
Winning form is crucial, with 7 of the last 12 winners having won their last run before the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.
All winners placed in their previous run, and every winner had their last run within 77 days of the race.
Course Experience:
Previous runs at Cheltenham are beneficial, with 11 out of the last 12 winners having at least one previous run at the course, and 8 having at least one win there.
Distance Form:
Experience over the race distance is important, with 9 out of the last 12 winners having at least two previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, and 10 having at least one win over this distance.
Hurdle and Chase Form:
A strong track record over hurdles is key, with all winners having at least 4 runs over hurdles, and 10 out of the last 12 winners having at least 2 wins over hurdles.
Similarly, 10 out of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, and 11 had at least one previous chase win, with 8 having at least 2 chase wins.
Rating:
High ratings are indicative of a horse’s potential, with all winners in the last 12 years being rated 150 or higher.
Graded Wins:
Success in graded races is common among winners, with 9 out of the last 12 winners having at least one previous win in a grade 1-3 race.
Trends
Age:
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7.
Price:
5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, and 9 of the 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
Last Run:
7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.
10 of the 12 winners at least placed on their previous run before Cheltenham.
All 12 winners’ last run was within 77 days.
Previous Course Form:
11 of the 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham.
8 of the 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham.
Previous Distance Form:
9 of the 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs.
10 of the 12 had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs.
Previous Hurdle Form:
11 of the 12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles.
10 of the 12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles.
Previous Chase Form:
10 of the 12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs.
11 of the 12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win.
8 of the 12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins.
Rating:
10 of the 12 winners were rated 150 or higher.
Graded Wins:
9 of the 12 winners had previously won a grade 1-3 race.
Season Form:
10 of the 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season.
11 of the 12 had at least 1 win that season.
Season Form:
Consistent performance throughout the season is important, with 10 out of the last 12 having at least 3 runs that season, and all winners having at least one win that season.
Future Form:
The race often serves as a stepping stone to further success, with 3 of the last 12 winners winning on their next run after the Brown Advisory Novices’ Hurdle.
