Category: Gambling and Casinos

Now that we have put the Barry Bonds/ Babe Ruth blah, blah, blah to sleep, I think it’s time that we sat back and wagered a few bucks on our favorite MLB team. Parity is here and every one of the six divisions is up for grabs this year and handicapping these teams, takes patience and talent.

Let’s start with the glamour division and of course I am referring to the American League East where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been trading punches since the opening week of April and George’s boys are now sitting in the penthouse.

Lurking down in the lobby are the Toronto Blue Jays who have fought off injuries to their starting pitching staff, with superb hitting and are 32-25 and are just three games back. Toronto has made it clear from the get go, that they will spend money during the season in order to contend.

In the AL Central my 9-1 betting bonanza and that would be the 2005 Chicago White Sox are scuffling a bit after a torrid start and presently trail the Motown Detroit Tigers. The Tigers began the first 50 games under Jim Leyland in spectacular fashion, but injuries are beginning to hit them, with the latest being to Pudge Rodriguez.

At 28-29 the Cleveland Indians will make a move at some point and placing a few bucks on them, could provide you with a nice return on your dollar. The AL West with Texas, Oakland, Seattle and Los Angeles is a crapshoot, with only 5.5 games separating the VIP section and the cheap seats. The first place Rangers incidentally are the only team in the West with a winning mark in games played within the division and against the powerful AL East and you cannot ignore that vital gambling statistic.

The New York Mets like their neighbors the Yankees like to throw the money around and they sit atop the NL East presently, but the Phillies and Braves can almost reach out and touch them. With 14 straight division titles, I certainly would think about a wagering a few bucks on them to win once again.

The Cardinals are suddenly trying to ward off the Cincinnati Reds who are getting healthy and pounding the ball. The Cardinals meanwhile have all kids of injury issues with Pujols and ace Chris Carpenter does not look stable.

Just like their counterparts in the AL West, the NL West Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, Giants and Rockies are in a fierce battle for supremacy. Just six games separate the top and bottom, with Arizona leading the pack. The Dodgers are getting superb play out of Garciaparra and if their veterans can stay healthy, watch out!

Bob Acton

Current baseball betting lines

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction. Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13th last season?
As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7th in hitting (24th pitching).

Petco Park is a rare exception. They are currently the top pitcher’s ball orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in 2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them. For example, virtually every Padre is going to have statistically better stats at home than on the road. The fact that Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and

David Wells have significantly better stats at home than on the road proves to be the rule, not the exception. Hence the educated eye realizes there is not an angle in their respective splits.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a better pitcher on the road than at home. This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust. As of June 19, the Padres last eight road games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.
Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5 or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the sharpies.
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The 2006 MLB season has been one of streaks for several teams and the most impressive recent one was the Oakland A’s 10 game streak prior to their trek to the Rocky Mountains! Oakland is one the verge of being swept by the surging Colorado Rockies and is you like playing home underdogs on the verge of a sweep tonight is the night.

In fact not only is Clint Hurdle’s team +112 tonight, the over/under is 9 and that is surprising considering the fact that the A’s have not scored a run in 22 innings.

Barry Zito seeks to win his sixth straight start on Wednesday as Oakland tries to salvage the finale of a three-game series against the Rockies at Coors Field. Zito (8-3, 3.51 ERA) is 6-0 with a 3.28 ERA over his last seven starts, including victories in each of his last five. The left-hander pitched eight strong innings on Friday, giving up three runs and eight hits while striking out a season-high 11 batters in a 7-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies (36-35) have never seen, as Zito has never faced Colorado.

The Rockies have now recorded four shutout wins at Coors Field this season, the most in a single season in that stadium’s history. Colorado also registered shutouts on consecutive days at home for the first time in the 14-year history of the franchise.

Slumping third baseman Eric Chavez went 0-for-3 on Tuesday. Chavez is 6-for-39 over his last 11 games, dropping his average from .285 to .262. Oakland center fielder Mark Kotsay returned to the lineup and went 0-for-4 after missing the previous five games with back spasms. Kotsay had hit safely in his previous eight games, batting .333 (11-for-33)!

The Numbers Favor Colorado!

Matt Holliday is batting .462 (24-for-52) with 14 runs scored over his last 13 games for Colorado, which is 5-0 in interleague play this year. The left fielder is 9-for-18 with five runs scored against AL opponents this season.

Manager Hurdle plans to give right-handed hitters Choo Freeman and Ryan Spilborghs starts in the outfield on Wednesday in place of left-handers.

Brad Hawpe and Cory Sullivan and the Rockies are 7-3 against left-handed starters this season.

Colorado’s Jamey Carroll is hitting .423 over the past 14 games after going 2-for-3 against the A’s. … Oakland’s pinch hitters were 0-for-2, stretching the A’s hitless streak to 29 at-bats over spanning two seasons, including 0-for-19 this year.

Dare I suggest Colorado wins 6-0!

Online Sports Betting

If your looking for wagering action this weekend, it doesn’t get much better then this as the World Cup of soccer, the Belmont Stakes, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA and NASCAR are all front and center.

In Germany there will be 12 stadiums, hosting 64 games that will put 3 million derrieres in the seat and the host country tackles Costa Rica on day one. Staggering numbers reveal 1.5 BILLION people will watch the opening match and 35 BILLION will take in the tournament and wagering outlets will be staffed to the maximum.

The Belmont Stakes from New York will wrap up a disappointing Triple Crown series that gave us the wonder horse Barbaro and then shattered our dreams with a freakish injury. I have been touting Bon & John all spring and like him in an exacter with Steppenwolfer that was named after the 70’s rock band Steppenwolf.

Last night the Dallas Mavericks got subpar scoring games from stars Dirk Nowitzkie and Josh Howard, but Jason Terry lit the Heat up for 32 points. They also got some quality minutes from Eric Dampier to subdue the listless Heat. Once again the fragile foul shooting of NBA players is alarming and how are you going to win when just two players on the team get to the charity stripe. Shooting 36% (7-19) on a skill that you have practiced since kindergarten is perplexing to say the least.

The Edmonton Oilers are in serious trouble down 2-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes and look for the Chris Pronger team to lay a beating on the North Carolina based Canes. This series is far from over and I look for it to go the full seven.

All baseball eyes are on the Chicago Cubs who are floundering and this may result in the dusting of manager Dusty Baker. The Cubs have lost 11 of their last 16 overall, falling 12 1/2 games out of first place. At 23-36, they’ve matched their season low mark of 13 games under .500.

For the Cubs, it was another night of futile at-bats against the Reds Brandon Arroyo and two relievers. Chicago has lost three in a row, getting a total of 15 hits and two runs in those games.

The PGA tour is in Rye, New York for the Barclay Classic a tuneup for the US Open and Tiger Woods is resurfacing. The nine-week layoff is the longest of his career, and Woods said he isn’t sure what to expect out of his game. But having playing 18 holes at Winged Foot on May 27, he knows what to expect from the course.

Mike Weir is in striking distance after round one and you may want to place a bet on him to win this weekend.

NASCAR parks their trailers in the picturesque Pocono’s this weekend and the Roush team as usual will be front and centre as they have won the past two events staged there.

Happy Wagering!

Bob Acton

Online Sports Betting