Category: Gambling and Casinos

Most gambling systems fail to produce positive returns on investment in the long term, this is mainly down to human psychology and no real strategy. In this article I will discuss position sizing and anti-martingale strategies that will assist and help you make a long term profit.

It doesn’t matter if you are gambling in horse racing, investing in stocks or day trading forex you will need to manage your money pot with a position sizing strategy. If you apply this correctly and your desired punts are coming in your money will grow. If you have no position sizing then you are doomed to failure.

What is position sizing?

Position sizing in its purest form can be divided into two areas, martingale or anti-martingale, Most casino gamblers will probably have tried to use a martingale strategy without even realizing it. Martingale strategy increases your bet size if you are losing, anti-martingale is the opposite and you increase your bet size when you are winning. One works the other is a total disaster.. guess which one?

Martingale example:
Any game of chance will have losing streaks!

Joe punter places a $1 bet at 2.0 decimal odds to win, on the horse windjammer at Lingfield it loses he then doubles up and places a $2 bet on the horse tabadul, this also loses. Joe continues his unlucky streak, doubling up as he goes on. His losing streak is now ten horses, he has to place a $2000 bet to just win his original $1, that’s right he has to risk $2000 to make a dollar.
To make matters worse Joe is running out of time as the horse racing track is going to close and also the horse racing tracks betting maximum limit is nearly hit!
See the problems, as a result Martingale strategies in the long term do not work

Anti-Martingale strategies do work however, they call for a larger risk to be taken when you are on a winning streak!
Position sizing systems that work whether for gambling, trading or investing are based around increasing your position size when you are winning and making money, and decreasing your position size when you are losing.

Position sizing – Percent risk model

When you enter into a bet you divide you gambling pot by a % factor, this is then your stake at which you back a horse, If you are laying a horse this is the maximum you can lose so you need to further divide by the laying odds.
Dependant on your appetite for risk and the amount you want to win. You will first need to decide a percentage risk, I recommend anywhere from 0.25% to 1.5%, this may seem quite low, but it ensures long term survival

Example for backing a horse:
I have a gambling pot of $3000 I have determined that for every bet I take I will only risk 1.25% of my money pot
So my first bet will be 3000/100 x 1.25 = $37.50
Luckily my first bet came in and I made $150 profit, so my second bet would now be 3150/100 x 1.25 = $39.4
Simple, all you need do is divide you pot by 1.25% for each bet

Example for laying a horse:
I have a gambling pot of $3000 I have determined that every bet I take I will only risk 1.25% of my money pot
So my first bet I will risk 3000/100 x 1.25 = $37.50
My lay bet odds are 9.0 decimal (8/1) so my betting stake will be $4.69 (37.5/8) giving me a bet liability of $37.5 if my bet is unsuccessful
My second bet will now be 3004.69/100 x 1.25 = $37.56 etc

Benefits of a percentage risk model

Allows for small and large betting accounts to grow steadily it also equalizes performance by the actual risk.
Finally the percentage risk model is recommended as the best possible position sizing model for long term trend followers. It gives all bets equal risk and gives a steady growth to your betting pot.

This article is free to distribute or copy as long as it is in full and includes the hyperlink

For exceptional horse racing and gambling advice please visit http://www.zaczebra.co.uk

Zaczebra is an expert author and webmaster of various websites

Putting together a system is not as difficult as it may sound, even for a beginner. The important thing, and with any betting, is that you write down every rule and follow it for at least 100 bets. You do not need to trade real money, paper trading is best at first. If after 100 bets it is in profit, you can then give it a betting bank and start gambling.

Starting an untested system with real money, and packing it in on its first losing run, putting it down as failed, will only cost you more and more money in the long term. Being patient saves you money.

So let us get down to starting a system eh? I’ll show you below how simple they are to put together, this example is profitable, so no reason why you can not follow it with a betting bank, but its yearly profits are not huge, but have a go at your own, always making sure that you understand way a rule works.

The system below is designed for National Hunt racing.

‘The NH High SR Non-Handicap Fav System’

Rule 1: Non-Handicap races only.
This ensures that we do not include handicap races, which are more difficult to get profitable systems out of. Although when you do they are more profitable than non-handicap races.

Rule 2: Forecast Favourite only (if joint VOID bet)
Just to make sure we have one clear qualifier for our non-handicap race.

Rule 3: Forecast price must be odds on.
I know that the lower the odds the more likely it is to win, although the lower the odds the smaller the profit for a new bank.

The first 3 rules of any systems I quantify as the main system rules, they ensure we have the main set of qualifiers we are looking for. Those rules after, I regard as filters to take out any facts I know are not profitable long term.

Rule 4: Horse age must be 6+
This is because in the UK, horses are not generally full wound up for jumping until they are at least 6, so those of a lower age have erratic results that do not prove profitable, so no use including them.

Rule 5: Horse must have finished 2nd or worse on its last run.
Horses that won last time out usually go off at lower odds than they should, so an edge is taken away.

Rule 6: Must be a gelding.
Geldings win the majority of races over fences, and are generally have the most consistent and reliable form.

Rule 7: Going must be Good-Soft or better.
Any softer than this and results can get a bit random.

That is it. Over the last 10 years it has produced a 48pt profit even at those low odds, and a 63% SR overall. It has had 3 losing years in that period, the worst being 5pts, but using the betting exchange prices, they would also have shown a profit.. There are around 100 bets per year.

So you can see by this example, it does not profit every year, but long term it still shows a profit, and it is long term that any professional gambler will tell you is the only time span that matters.

“Barbaro was so overpowering in his Kentucky Derby romp that winning next Saturday’s Preakness seems to be a foregone conclusion.”
– Associated Press

“Unbeaten Barbaro looks invincible.”
– Asbury Park Press

“I’d say he’s the best horse I’ve seen in the past 25 years … on the dirt, turf, any age group.”
– Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens

The 131st Preakness Stakes will be run Saturday at Pimlico and most horsemen are fairly certain that Barbaro will show the rest of his challengers his backside in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Considering that I called this horse to be the winner of the Derby if Bob & John faltered and he did, you would think I would be touting this Michael Martz pupil. Well I am firm believer that adversity brings out the best in us and both trainer Dan Hendricks and his talented three year old Brother Derek, have had their fair share.

If you have been following Triple Crown or have been a reader of my articles recently, you will know that Hendricks was left paralyzed from a motocross accident two years ago. He bounced back with the help of his wife, three sons and some loyal owners and is a topnotch trainer.
Brother Derek wowed the horsemen on the West Coast in the early part of the season and arrived at Churchill Downs as the odds on favorite, to win the “Run for the Roses”. But when the draw was made for the big race, Hendricks talented horse was saddled with the 18 post position in the overcrowded race.

Brother Derek had a bad trip in the Derby, racing wide on the first turn and very wide on the second, while Barbaro had a perfect trip. He probably wouldn’t have beaten Barbaro that day anyway, but, with better racing luck, he would have been much closer. His trainer Dan Hendricks believes the effort was as good as any his colt has had in his career.

“I guess you could say it’s his best race,” he said of the Derby performance. “He made it back. He took dirt. He took adversity. He went wide and he circled the field and he lost a shoe and still finished a very creditable fourth. I could easily say he could have been second. So that’s got to be one of his best races.”

The Preakness will be a leisurely stroll on the beach compared to the traffic jam in the Derby and Brother Derek can scoot with Barbaro. I think he turns the tables here!

Bob Acton

Online Sports Betting

Home poker tournaments are becoming more and more popular. By knowing how to deal with certain circumstances your tournaments will run more smoothly, and be more fun for everyone. This article deals with removing low value chips from the tables by means of a chip race.

When a poker tournament begins, each player usually starts with a healthy stack of chips that are the lowest denomination. After all, you’ll need them to pay the blinds, and probably for all of the betting during the first few blind levels.

But, as time passes and the blinds increase, these smaller chips eventually are more bothersome than helpful. With blinds at $75 and $150, putting up fifteen $10 chips to pay a big blind is not convenient.

So, once a chip value is no longer needed to pay any of the remaining blinds on the schedule, those chips are removed from play. When possible, they are cashed in at face value for a higher denomination chip. But, someone is bound to have the odd chip or two, and that brings us to the question of how to remove those odd chips from play as well.

The first way to deal with this situation is to ignore it. It won’t go away, but those leftover $10 chips will only be put into play when a player is going all-in. At that time you can sort out any situations as they occur. Eventually one player will gather enough of the small chips to cash them in.

Or, you can race off the smallest chips of the smallest value. A chip race begins with the player in the dealer’s position. For each odd chip they have, they receive one card, face up. So, if the dealer has three odd chips, he will receive three cards face up.

This continues around the table until all the players have given their odd chips in exchange for cards.

At that point, the collected chips are totalled and a pile of the same value is made using the next higher chip denomination. So, if $100 worth of $10 was collected, $100 of the next highest chip value (perhaps $25’s) would be set aside to award in the race.

If the numbers do not match, they are rounded up. So, if $120 worth of $10 chips were collected, $125 worth of $25 chips would be awarded in the race.

Now, the awarding of the chips. The player with the highest card receives one chip. Then the player with the second highest card. And so on. Each player may only receive one chip, so once a player is awarded a chip in the race, all of his cards are taken from him.

It is important to note that a chip race cannot eliminate anyone from a tournament. If a player has only one small chip left when the race begins, that chip is traded in for a card as usual. Should he lose in the chip race, and additional chip of the new value is given to him so that he may keep his place in the tournament.

Chip races can be fun and interesting, or bothersome, depending upon the situation. In our local tournaments we simply leave the odd chips on the tables until the final table is formed.
At that point we race off all the unused colors.

Handle things in a way that works for you when hosting a tournament. Still, should someone ask about chp races, now you know the ins and outs of the process.